5% -10% stock price revision by end of year: German survey

London — A 5% to 10% stock market revision by the end of the year is the majority of forecasts for the September market sentiment survey released by Deutsche Bank on Monday, the latest in market warnings that stock blulan will end. It was a sign of.

According to a report of more than 550 market experts worldwide from September 7th to 9th, 58% of respondents said they expected to sell their shares by the end of the year. increase.

With the help of a huge amount of stimulus from the central bank, inventories soared from the lows reached in March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic stimulated the market and caused a sharp fall in stocks. Since then, MSCI’s World Equity Index has nearly doubled.

Economic growth and corporate profits recovered faster than expected, but data from the United States and China now suggest that the recovery may be losing momentum.

COVID-19 remains considered the greatest risk to market stability, with 53% of Deutsche Bank survey participants raising concerns about new viral variants that bypass the vaccine. This was followed by higher-than-expected inflation.

About one-third (32%) of respondents cited central bank policy mistakes as a risk to market stability, stating that strong economic growth was not achieved or was short-lived.

A September survey also showed that the central bank’s belief in temporary inflation, while still maintaining consensus, has declined.

Last week, banks such as BofA, Morgan Stanley, Citi and Credit Suisse instructed clients to reduce their equity exposure.

BNP Paribas said in a client note last week that it expects the S & P 500 to reach current levels at the end of the year.

“Given the risk of rising taxes and interest rates, US equities are largely neutral and European equities will rise further,” BNP Paribas said.

Deutsche Bank also investigated market experts on their intention to return to work after the pandemic, and that about one in five people have not yet returned to the office since March 2020, when the pandemic caused a global blockade. I found.

According to Deutsche Bank, this number was even lower in the United States, one-third.