Generation theory, written in 1997, predicted that the United States would reach the climax of the crisis in 2020.
As the climax moves toward resolution, the “next New Deal” will reshape the economy and give millennials a bright future.
The “Gray Champion” will usher in this new economic zeitgeist. Is it Biden?
The United States is currently in the midst of a millennial-baby boomer confrontation, with the “Gray Champion” arriving to signal the arrival of the “Next New Deal.”
That is, the eerie generation theory known as Forstening, created by Neil Howe and William Strauss in 1997, Book bearing the name.. Theory suggests that the United States sees a “transformation” every 20 years as one generation replaces another, and that this dynamic between the two creates a crisis every 80 years. I will.
Each crisis is characterized in four stages. A catalytic event that moves the wheels. Rebirth that stops people from accepting weakening institutions and dividing cultures. The climax of “shaking society to its roots”, transforming the system, and re-directing the purpose. And a resolution to see the economy completely rebuilt for a new set of situations.
It’s a quirky theory, and the book is widely criticized for it. Lack of scientific support And Vague prediction.. However, it resonates equally with conservative and liberal leaders, and has a mysterious resemblance to American history.
On the final fourth turn, Howe and Strauss claimed to have culminated in World War II, the Civil War, and the American Revolutionary War.They wrote that the next crisis era would be relevant Millennials Baby boomers fight for the shape of the world to come At a catalytic event It will start around 2005, reach its climax around 2020, and will be resolved by 2026.
The· 2008 financial crisis Can be seen as the catalysts they mentioned, but pandemics, social unrest and riots in 2020 and early 2021 Sounds like a climax.. During this climax, the economy could “reach a valley that might look like the beginning of a recession,” and in fact, the 2020 stock market crash was the sharpest and most serious since at least the 1930s. According to theory, the economy will recover, but after this period it will change radically.
Ambitious social programs and heavy spending enter the Biden administration, which caused a comparison with the FDR’s New Deal. Some major political experts agree that this era is historic and climax. For example, Dagsosnik, senior adviser to the Brunswick Group and political director of former President Bill Clinton, Release presentation in April Not only has the United States undergoing the greatest transformation since the Industrial Revolution of the 19th century, it has declared that “the current period of turmoil and turmoil that began in the early 2000s will continue throughout the last decade.”
The challenge Sosnik wrote is the transition from a top-down industrial economy in the 20th century to a digital and global economy in the 21st century. In other words, as Strauss and Howe wrote, this period could be the “great gate of history.”
Abandon Obama-era rules for a bolder approach
Forsterning predicts that the next New Deal agenda will be centered around young adults, with baby boomers imposing “new obligations for compulsory services” and millennials recognizing this as a path to public achievement. I am. According to theory, the economic role of government shifts from past promises such as amenities, elderly care and debt repayment to spending on survival and future promises such as defense and public works.
Early on, President Joe Biden suggested he would not give in to concerns about government bonds, which had accounted for the majority of the last two decades (that is, the third diversion).President announces $ 1.9 trillion stimulus One week before his inaugurationEncourage Congress to pass another round of bailout checks, extend the enhanced unemployment allowance, and fund the distribution of the coronavirus vaccine.
For the first time in a generation, economists and consumers have become similar Worried about inflationAnd whether such a big boost was even needed as the vaccine began to reach the arms of Americans.
When the Obama administration curtailed its proposal to soothe Republicans and moderate Democrats, Biden said, “growing“And for the time being, ignore the impact on government debt.
“The new resolution on urgent public goals has crushed anxiety about suspicious public means,” Strauss and Howe wrote. “Instead of persuading people to promise minimal sacrifice, they summon them with a warning of maximum sacrifice.”
This may just be the beginning of a Biden-led resolution. Can we meet the “Gray Champion” for his second act?
Big spending in a new era of American infrastructure
The authors predicted that a key element of the next New Deal would be a new era of infrastructure. “Forstering America will begin laying out the next Saeculum infrastructure grid (turnpike, railroad, or highway high-tech facsimile). In the fourth turning, the old order disappears, but new citizens in it. Only after producing seeds that contain order. “
That’s exactly what Biden is proposing and clearly asserts in his rollout. $ 2.3 trillion package Now is the time to rethink infrastructure for the first time in decades. This includes funding national broadband and green energy projects, as well as more “traditional” infrastructure such as road and bridge reconstruction.
“With the 1936 Local Electrification Act, the federal government has made historic investments to power almost every home and farm in the United States, benefiting millions of families and our economy. I read “I did.” White House fact sheet For planning. “Broadband internet is new electricity.”
“It’s big, yes. It’s bold, yes. And we can get it done.” Biden said when he announced the package.. “The momentary division should not prevent us from doing the right thing for the future.” He also called it “a generational investment in America.”
That’s not the only thing the government has in the docket.The president is expected to reveal Another $ 1.5 trillion spending Before he addressed the congressional joint session on April 28. The plan is set to include funding for childcare, universal pre-K, and paid family and medical leave.
These two packages are very similar to spending on “public works” and “future promises” that Howe and Strauss predicted to make up the next New Deal. Beyond the FDR New Deal program. Leonard Burman, a professor of behavioral economics at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School, told insider Juliana Kaplan that the country “has never done” a package of Biden’s proposed size compared to FDR. It was. Unlike Biden, he said the FDR was “much less spending than was appropriate for the magnitude of the recession at that time.”
In summary, Biden’s proposal puts the country on the brink of a new policy regime. The fierce debate over this new regime is where the confrontation between millennials and boomers reaches a frenzy.
“In the fourth turning, baby boomers are likely to occupy a downward economic spiral,” the author writes. “The truth will be revealed that the old baby boomers do not have the money to support their familiar consumption.” However, as millennials will embody the “new American mainstream,” we predicted that they would emerge in a brighter future.
Supporting millennials along the way will be a particular person, Howe and Strauss write.
The co-authors predicted that 80 to 90 years after their last appearance at a similar gate of history, an “ancient figure” would visit America, combining aspects of “leaders and saints.” Solution. They called the character the Gray Champion and said he would be the one who heralded the arrival of a new economic zeitgeist.
78-year-old Biden America’s oldest president When he was elected in 2020, a devout Catholic faith, Some personal tragedy,and Clear empathy In his public remarks.And when he introduced the infrastructure plan last month, he Promised a new economic “paradigm” For the country. This may be just the beginning.
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