AI could take 300 million jobs, Goldman Sachs warns


Artificial intelligence (AI) could eliminate 300 million full-time jobs, according to new research.

Advances in AI technology could replace nearly a quarter of existing jobs in the United States and Europe, according to a March 25 report by The Economists at Goldman Sachs Group (GSG), but in the process New jobs could be created and a future productivity boom.

The latest wave of generative AI platforms like ChatGPT could enable businesses to replace humans with automated technology to perform tasks more efficiently, says the study.

The Epoch Times has already reported that modern AI technology can complete most white-collar jobs more efficiently than most human employees, according to a recent research paper by the University of Pennsylvania (pdf).

The new AI will help most jobs, but the impact tends to be greater in high-paying jobs that require higher education, says the university report.

“Our findings support the hypothesis that these technologies could have widespread impacts on a wide range of occupations in the United States,” the authors wrote.

18% of jobs worldwide could be computerized, and workers in developed countries are the most vulnerable compared to those in developing countries, Goldman economists say.

However, GSG says the new technology could offset the expected job losses by increasing the total annual value of goods and services produced globally over the long term.

The AI ​​revolution may change the world within months

Generative AI, a Microsoft-backed chatbot system and the technology behind ChatGPT developed by OpenAI, has been making a lot of headlines lately.

before google Announced this month A trial release of its own chatbot called Bard will be integrated into the system to compete and catch up with Microsoft.

A new AI platform has been improved to the point where it can create creative content that is indistinguishable from humans, and has been called the biggest technological revolution in the last 200 years.

Chatbots can now answer prompts and write essays, prompting many companies to rethink their current working models.

In March 2022, Open AI announced GPT-4, the latest version of the software behind ChatGPT.

AI may take over white-collar jobs

White-collar workers will be more at risk than blue-collar workers.Managers and lawyers are expected to be most affected.

The impact of AI will vary by sector, automating 46% of administrative tasks and 44% of legal tasks.

Economists say there will be “little impact” on physically demanding and outdoor occupations such as construction, manual labor and repair work. Only 6% of construction work and 4% of maintenance work will be affected, according to the report.

About two-thirds of current jobs in the 21st-century Western economy are “exposed to some degree of AI automation,” and up to a quarter of all jobs could be done entirely by AI. Bank estimates.

The labor market could face significant disruption if generative AI “lives up to its promised capabilities,” write the researchers.

Further use of generative AI is likely to lead to job losses, but each technological innovation that historically first replaced workers will create new job opportunities over time, says the GSG report. I’m here.

The report says 60% of workers are in jobs that didn’t exist in 194o, but studies show that technological change over the past 40 years has created jobs at a faster pace than jobs are being created. people are being kicked out.

The generative AI revolution may reduce jobs in the short term, similar to what happened after previous information technology advances, but will benefit as the economy adjusts, the report concludes. .

Declining jobs could be offset as economy adapts to AI technology

However, according to the GSG, widespread adoption of AI could ultimately lead to significant labor productivity gains, increasing global GDP by 7% annually over a decade.

“Although the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially affected by automation and are likely to be complemented rather than replaced by AI. will be,” added the research team.

“Most workers are in occupations that are partially exposed to AI automation and, after the introduction of AI, will be able to apply at least some of the liberated capacities to output-increasing production activities. there is potential.”

GSG economists say it can replace 25-50% of the workload of the average American worker.

“The combination of significant labor cost reductions, new job creation, and increased productivity of the unemployed workers will lead to labor productivity levels that have followed the advent of early commodity technologies such as electric motors and personal computers. It increases the chances of a boom,” they noted.

In the UK, Carl Benedict Frey, Director of Future Work at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, told BBC News How the introduction of GPS technology and platforms like Uber has impacted the taxi industry.

“Suddenly, upon learning that all of London’s roads had fallen in value significantly, current drivers experienced a correspondingly significant wage cut – around 10%, according to research. It’s not the numbers, it’s the wages that are going down,” Frey said.

White Hall on the other hand decided In order to “ultimately boost productivity across the economy,” the UK has sought to significantly boost investment in AI and reassure the public that it will not cost people their jobs.

“We want to make sure AI complements the way we work in the UK rather than disrupting it. I would like to.” told the sun