Almanac says we are in one of the coldest winters in “a few years”. Should you trust it?

We are having a chilly winter. At least that’s what’s predicted at this year’s Old Farmers’ Almanac.

The latest version of the 230-year-old series projects the winter of 2021-22 as a particularly cold winter, calling it the “season of tremors.” Armanac editor Janice Stillman says it could even be “one of the longest and coldest things I’ve ever seen.”

The yearbook, which has often been controversial about its accuracy, is this winter in the New England region, and parts of the Appalachian region, the Ohio Valley and the northern part of the Deep South. Interestingly, winters in southern New Mexico are also expected to be colder and snowier than usual.

Many of the western United States, already regions Surrounded by drought, You should expect more dryness, Almanac project. Almost everything in California Currently fighting a raging Caldor fire near Lake TahoeIs fixed in mild, dry winters, along with most of Arizona and parts of western Washington and Oregon.

Before and after: Photo reveals the horror of the Caldor fire in California near Lake Tahoe

Before: The United States has declared the first water shortage on the Colorado River during a historic drought.Expected reductions for Arizona farmers

Just a few areas of the countryIt is predicted that only “mild” temperatures will be experienced, as in the Pacific coast and northern plains. According to Almanac, almost everyone else needs to be ready to bundle.

Armanac predicts chilly temperatures. Should you trust it?

“Old Farmers’ Almanac” is renowned for providing long-term weather forecasts each year. The book also provides readers with full moon dates, recipes, and various self-help tips.

But these big-picture weather forecasts should be captured with a grain of salt, some weather experts say.

Both the Old Farmers’Almanac, which began in 1792, and the Farmers’ Almanac, which began in 1818, began more than a century before satellite weather tracking became practiced.

The story continues

“Old Farmers’ Almanac” states that its secret weather forecast was invented by founder Robert B. Thomas in 1792, and notes about the ceremony are “trapped in a black box” at Almanac’s office to this day. “. However, the yearbook seems to have changed with the times.

“Over the years, we have refined and enhanced the formula with state-of-the-art technology and the latest scientific calculations,” reads the Armanac website.

Almanac states that he is currently using solar science, climatology, and meteorology to make long-term weather forecasts.

The strength of Hurricane Aida may have seemed surprising. But that’s not the case for forecasters.

Still, experts have questioned the accuracy of the yearbook for years.

of 2016 When 2017, Meteorologist Jan Null conducted an accuracy review of “Old Farmer’s Almanac” and graded Almanac’s winter forecasts based on forecasts compared to actual weather results in each region of the United States.

Null’s rating system was relatively simple, assigning one of three grades to predict Almanac temperature and precipitation in each region of the United States: good, bad, and mixed.

For example, suppose Armanac predicts the dry season in one region. If the area’s rainfall falls below average, Null assigns a “good” accuracy rating to the area’s forecasts. The forecast received a “bad” rating if it received above average rainfall. The forecast also received a “mixed” rating if there was average rainfall.

Of the 57 regions reviewed, only 25% of the 2016 and 2017 Old Farmer’s Almanac rated precipitation forecasts as “good.” In temperature forecasts over the same period, Armanac received a “good” accuracy rating in just under 33% of the 52 regions reviewed.

Similarly OpenSnow has discovered that it has “no track record of accuracy” In a review of the 2013-14 winter weather forecast.

The results of several years of prediction may be a small sample of a book dating back to George Washington’s presidency, but the findings were far from the yearbook. The traditional claim of 80% accuracy.

Follow USA TODAY’s Jay Cannon on Twitter. @JayTCannon

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This article was originally published in USA TODAY: Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts cold winter weather in the United States from 2021 to 2022