Showers and thunderstorms Dominate Metroplex during MayForce rain checks at countless outdoor gatherings and baseball practice. If climatic trends are maintained, North Texas is expected to see longer precipitation and hotter temperatures in the coming decades.
It is due to the new “normal value”. Released this month According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a federal scientific institution that houses the National Weather Service.
Normals are updated every 10 years, using data from automatic weather recorders and volunteer observers. 30-year average of annual temperature Precipitation, 100 degree days and freezing days per year.Is A snapshot of the local climate This influences decisions such as when to plant crops and how much energy is needed during each season. Predictions have become increasingly difficult after Texas was hit by a major power outage during the February winter storm.
Average annual temperature in Dallas-Fort Worth between 1991 and 2020 compared to the 1981-2010 normal announced by NOAA Got up 0.3 degrees Annual precipitation increased by 0.87 inches. The average temperature in the area is currently 66.6 degrees Celsius, with rainfall of 37.01 inches per year.
However, according to climate experts, these data points do not give a complete picture of what is happening in northern Texas or throughout the state.
Since the announcement of the normal line from 1951 to 1980, average precipitation has steadily increased by about 25%, according to Victor Murphy, Climate Service Program Manager, National Weather Service. Fort Worth Southern Regional Headquarters..
Murphy says that the increase over the last 70 years corresponds to an increase in annual rainfall of about 8 inches, a “quite significant” increase. He added that most parts of the United States, from central Texas to the southern plains of the east, are more moist at recent normals.
“This is important from a public policy perspective in that our infrastructure can handle these rainfall events as they occur,” Murphy said. “Temperature rises can be slow and stable, but I think changes in rainfall patterns will affect us every day.”
Total precipitation does not appear to change from year to year, and there will be fewer rainy days throughout the state. But when the storm hits, North Texas people are expected to have longer heavy rains, Murphy said.
“It takes longer and longer to rain, leading to drought and flood patterns,” he said. “The dry period is long, and it rains heavily in a short period of time, and then it dries again. The overall picture of total precipitation has not changed, but the way it occurs has changed.”
Heavy storms mean more floods, infrastructure problems
Policymakers focus as extreme storms become more common throughout the state Broader flood planningCoastal areas that are more vulnerable to hurricanes, especially in the southeast. Heavy rains can often stress existing infrastructure, including: Some sewage overflows throughout Fort Worth last week.
Congressman passed $ 1.7 Billion Flood Control Bill In 2019, the Texas Water Development Commission will join the state First-ever state-wide flood plan.15 regional groups have started a meeting. Concerns about urban flash floodsEspecially in the Trinity region, including North Texas.
City planners have typically used a map of the 100-year floodplain, or land that is expected to flood during a 100-year storm of any year, as a guide to development strategies. I did. Faculty of Global Environmental Sciences, University of Texas at Arlington.
“In the future, we may need to use more extreme floodplains, such as the 500-year-old floodplain, to show the more extreme potential of floods,” Winguth said. “They can even use the” once in a thousand years “potential, but the 500-year floodplain is probably a more rational assumption. “
In 2018 Winguth has completed the study For the North Texas Government Council documenting how climate change, especially rising temperatures and floods, will affect DFW’s transportation infrastructure.
Winguth’s team predicted anomalous temperatures. Up to 125 degrees by the end of the centuryThis increases the risk of infrastructure cracks and increases the risk of fires in forest areas. The increased likelihood of drought amplifies the “urban heat island” effect, which can heat up to 10 degrees or more in downtown Dallas and in rural areas of the region.
It’s no secret that extreme weather events lead to more road accidents, but Winguth’s group of researchers also show that high risk of heavy thunderstorms can increase accidents on interstate highways. I did.
“What we noticed in the survey was that the interstate highway branch roads were affected by the floods,” says Winguth. “Most interstate highways are unaffectedly high, but floods can cause accidents on branch roads.”
Health effects, summer power outages
In addition to floods, Wingus is concerned about how rising temperatures shown in normal and other environmental studies affect public health. According to Wingus, the highest number of weather-related deaths is associated with heat stress, and rising temperatures and increased ozone production also reduce air quality.
In addition, warming will lengthen the growing season, increase the amount of pollen produced by plants, and worsen the allergic season in spring and autumn. 2021 Allergy Capital Report From the American Asthma and Allergy Foundation.Dallas I entered at number 19 It’s on the Foundation’s list of the most difficult cities in the United States to live with seasonal allergies.
According to the Foundation, more than 50 million Americans live with nasal allergies, about half of whom experience seasonal pollen allergies.
“Climate change has made the season of allergies even longer and more serious,” said Kenneth Mendes, CEO and President of the Foundation. “If you don’t delay the cycle, pollen production will only intensify. It means that as climate change continues to evolve, symptoms can worsen. “
Report Released by North American Electric Reliability Corporation. In late May, Texas warned that temperatures would be higher than normal this summer and that the risk of drought would increase.
The report warns that this could increase energy demand, lead to power outages, and disable electricity and air conditioning for residents in the hottest months of the year. An estimated number of Texas people who died in a power outage due to a winter storm Range from 194 To 700Although the official number of states is 151.
Murphy said the Texas Electric Reliability Council, the manager of the grid, known as ERCOT, is a “huge user” of normal and predicts average daily energy demand. That would be the case this summer as the ERCOT works to keep the middle light on. Expected record-breaking demand For Texas power.
However, very hot days can mix weak winds with warm nights, creating the perfect storm for the grid to overboard. According to NBC DFW.While the ERCOT forecast shows Less than 1 percent chance Energy consultant Alison Silverstein told the agency that Texas needs to improve its plans for extreme weather events during this summer’s power outage.
“If you’re lucky, that may not happen, or if you’re unlucky, everything may happen at the same time,” Silverstein said. “Imagine everything that might go wrong, create a lot of crazy scenarios and actually plan how to protect yourself from them. Here in Texas, we need to do it better. There is. “