The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) needs to prepare Australians for hot days, heat waves, bushfires, droughts, sea level rise, ocean warming, ocean acidification, and an increase in other extreme events. I warn you that there is. Others fear that the conclusions are vigilant, irresponsible, and misleading.
Part 2 of the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report (pdf) Predicted that further climate change in Australia and Asia would be “unavoidable” and argued that it could only be resolved by rapid reductions in emissions.
“The region faces a very difficult future,” the report said. “To mitigate risk, we need significant and rapid emission reductions and robust and timely adaptation to maintain global warming at 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius.”
The report also “already poses the risk of” irreversible changes “in some cases, such as species extinction, through events such as wildfires that have led to excessive mortality and increased incidence of many diseases. I pointed out what is called the cascade effect. “
“Another example is a wildfire in southeastern Australia from 2019 to 2020, burning 5.8 million to 8.1 million hectares, 114 threatened species losing at least half of their habitat, and 49 losing more than 80%. , More than 3,000 homes were destroyed, 33 died, and an additional 429 died. Deaths due to cardiovascular or respiratory conditions and 3,230 hospitalizations. “
Wildfires, such as the 2019-2020 Blacksummer Wildfire, one of the worst in Australia’s recent history, have been a major aspect of Australia’s landscape, over the past century, at least 10 years ago. It occurred once and was the worst between 1974 and 1975. It burned 117 million hectares. This is 15 percent of Australia’s total area.
Australia supports
The findings of the report have spurred discussions among Australian environmental groups on the need for Australia to accelerate its emission reduction efforts, including coal reductions and the shift to more renewable energy generation.
However, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Australia officially reduced emissions faster than some allies.
“On a per capita basis, the United States, Japan, Canada, New Zealand, etc. are expected to achieve equal or greater reductions than they simply want to achieve at this time,” a spokesman told AAP.
“We are also one of the few countries to have a detailed plan to reach our net zero emissions target by 2050.”
Australia’s emission reductions have almost entirely relied on the controversial carbon offsets created by land management practices, such as paying farmers millions of dollars to prevent logging of land.
However, the Climate Council (CC), a climate change communications organization, said the report clearly states that the government “should significantly reduce emissions and stop fossil fuel extraction and burning in the last decade.” I believe you are saying.
“Currently, communities in southeastern Queensland and northern New South Wales are hit by extremely heavy rainfall and floods.” Said CC Research Director Simon Bradshaw. “These communities have little time to recover from past disasters and are again facing serious broken hearts and losses.”
“Communities are increasingly hit by disasters such as droughts, fires and floods. The combined effects of these disasters are at great cost.”
“The report is very clear. Further delays in global action will result in the loss of a short period of closure to secure a vibrant future,” he said.
Climate warning concerns
However, according to long-time environmental activist Michael Shellenberger, the IPCC’s warning that “no one is safe” due to anthropogenic climate change is “irresponsible and misleading.”
Schellenberger, founder and president of the non-profit Environmental Progress and author of “Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All,” said the natural sciences reviewed by the IPCC are accurate, but “pessimistic about climate change.” Appears in the summary of statements of those who helped prepare the report. “
“Climate change is a reality. The world is getting warmer and warmer about 1 degree Celsius before the Industrial Revolution, but many other environmental indicators are moving things in the right direction.” , Shellenberger mentions American Thought Leaders in an interview with Jan Jekielek on Epoch TV.
“For example, the hottest time of the worst heat waves was in the 1930s. It was a hot decade, but the 1930s were still the largest heat waves. The chances of dying from abnormal weather are average. It has decreased by more than 99% for humans.
“Natural disaster deaths have fallen by 90% overall, producing 25% more food than necessary. There is no estimate of food shortages … sea level rise is a very good job for us to adapt. And we continue to do a good job of adapting. “
“So my objection is to portray humans as some sort of fragile or extremely vulnerable thing. At least at the physical level, it’s more brilliant than ever and has never been less vulnerable. “
“I think the message that people need to hear what they haven’t heard is that most of the environmental trends, including climate change, are heading in the right direction.”
Notably, the IPCC’s fifth assessment report has been criticized for being selective and prejudiced because its authors did not consider the effects of the sun on changes in temperature.
Ocean acidification studies “biased” and “excessively swollen”
The impact of climate change on Australia’s coral reef system is a source of considerable caution for climate activists, analysis According to scholars at Norwegian University of Science and Technology, studies published before 2014 on ocean acidification were at great risk of prejudice and “expansion consequences.”
Ocean acidification is a product of climate change. About a quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted by greenhouse gases dissolves in the sea, increasing the acidity of seawater.
For marine organisms such as corals and plankton, it is thought to be problematic because it requires molecules such as carbonates to form skeletons and shells. As seawater becomes more acidic, the carbonates in the skeleton are neutralized and dissolved in water.
However, the authors show that all studies published since 2014 have shown a very dramatic reduction in the magnitude of the effect on fish, and theorize that previous results were affected by bias. It states that it is.
Researchers said, “Selectively publish impressive results to top-notch journals and journals, especially influential journals,” and “not true, but powerful, even if they may contribute to citation bias.” There is a potential for a surge in studies reporting effects, “the study states.
“Strongly effective results are often published in more easily and more influential journals than studies with weak or null results,” the author writes.
The authors say that high-impact journals have a lot of influence because they are often published in journals that prefer impressive effects and are therefore cited more often than studies that show weak relationships. Insisted. In all the articles in the dataset. “
UN gives China a pass
Despite fears of climate warnings, the United Nations, the overseer of the IPCC, has urged Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and other OECD countries to stop using it by 2030, while encouraging China to stop using it by 2040. It has been criticized for giving it a burning pass. ..
In September 2021, Selwyn Hart, Secretary-General of the United Nations Climate Change Countermeasures, announced a new climate roadmap with strict deadlines for developed countries to reduce coal.
Despite being the world’s largest producer of greenhouse gases, China was not included in the strict 2030 deadline set by the United Nations.
This follows the UN’s prior request to Australia to set a specific deadline for reaching Net Zero, including criticism from former UN Prime Minister Ban Ki-moon.
“The United Nations has unveiled their true agenda. It’s not about changing the climate, it’s about changing our society,” Nationals Senator Matt Canavan told The Epoch Times on August 7. Told to.
There is also growing concern about Beijing’s impact within the United Nations. As a permanent member of the Security Council with veto power, China is the United Nations’ largest financial supporter, allocating $ 470 million ($ 350 million) to its 2021 budget.
China, the world’s largest emitter, emits more carbon dioxide in 16 days than Australia emits in a year.
And a report by the Global Energy Monitor (pdf) Outlines that in 2020 China built an average of one large coal-fired power plant per week, more than three times as many new coal-fired power plants as the rest of the world. Did.
As of February 2021, the report determined that 247 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants were under development in China. This is about five times Australia’s total energy production capacity.
Marina Chan and Catabella Roberts contributed to this report.
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Daniel Khmelev is a Perth-based Australian reporter working on energy, technology and politics. He holds a bachelor’s degree in mathematics, physics and computer science. Contact him at [email protected]