The Australian economy shrank 1.9% in the September quarter (third quarter) when the state blockade for the COVID-19 delta variant occurred, but economists were afraid of a 2.5-3% decline.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) clearly According to the latest national accounts, Australia’s GDP rose 3.9% annually, despite a quarterly decline. The household savings rate also rose from 11.8% to 19.8%, greatly stimulated by the government.
“But the 1.9% drop in the September quarter was not surprising,” said Finance Minister Josh Frydenberg. Said ABC radio. “There were 13 million Australians blocked in the two largest states, New South Wales and Victoria.”
Frydenberg said the situation is improving as consumption and retail sales hit strong numbers, including Black Friday.
“So I look forward to a strong Christmas and a very strong New Year,” he said.
Gareth Aird, head of the Commonwealth Bank’s Australian economic sector, said the national accounts “clearly remind” of the great negative impact of the blockade on the economy.
“According to ABS records dating back to 1959, this was the third-largest quarterly decline in GDP (of course, the largest decline was a 7% decline in the second quarter of 2020),” Aird wrote. increase(pdf).
Mr Ead said the fact that the economy shrank “only” 1.9% in the blockade shows that many companies were able to adapt and continue production.
“It may seem strange to say that, but the 1.9% reduction in production was a decent result considering everything,” he said.
Felicity Emmet, ANZ Senior Economist, said today’s report, along with other data, suggests that much of the activity lost in the third quarter will be recovered in the December quarter.
“The outlook for 2022 is very bright, as households have a good balance sheet, large pipelines of residential and non-residential construction, and investment incentives help boost fixed investment outlook,” Emmet said. He said.
Emmet said the greatest uncertainty was omicron, but it was too early to predict its consequences.
Frydenberg said the government was still learning about Omicron, but did not expect the new variety to have a significant impact on the economy.
“From all that I see right now, the current economic trajectory is positive and not deviating from it,” he says. Said FIVEaa radio.