According to Barclays boss Jes Staley, Britain is about to experience the biggest business cycle since the aftermath of World War II.
His bright valuation came when Barclays revealed that profits for the first three months of the year were more than doubled from the previous year to £ 2.4 billion.
“We predict that the UK economy will grow the fastest since 1948, which is pretty spectacular,” he said.
Vaccine programs and accumulated savings help promote rebound.
Starley said the UK joined the United States for the fastest economic growth in decades, combined with the successful deployment of the vaccine and Barclays’ estimate of adding £ 200 billion to customer and corporate bank accounts. Said to achieve.
Barclays’ latest profit growth was almost entirely driven by a more confident view of the number of loans to be repaid.
This time last year, banks secured more than £ 2bn to cover the risk that borrowers would not be able to repay all their debt. This time we have only £ 55m.
Interestingly, Barclays, unlike other major banks in the United Kingdom and the United States, decided not to adjust its previous estimates of its non-performing loan forecasts, but suggested that it would do so in the future.
It would be equally interesting to see how many of their total £ 9 billion kittens are about future estimated defaults they are ready to rethink.
Assuming the worst of future defaults is sometimes referred to as “cookie jar stuffing.” This is a jar that you can raid when you need it to increase your future bottom line. All banks do this more or less,
But Starry is convinced that the big picture seems to be improving despite virus-related disasters in developing countries such as India and new blockades in developed countries such as Japan. There seems to be.
He also hopes that many business units (such as hospitality and leisure) are faced with desperately difficult situations and that some of the 5 million workers still temporarily dismissed will return to full-time work. I don’t know if it can be done.
There are many business owners who are unaware of his rosy picture of the future of the British economy.
After seeing the biggest recession in 300 years, it’s probably wrong to speak from a business cycle perspective, but Starley says the worst for him and his many business customers is behind us. There is.