Beijing accelerates timeline on possible Taiwan invasion, experts warn

Taiwan, Taipei-Experts warn that the Chinese Communist Party administration is accelerating plans to invade Taiwan as Beijing is rushing military exercises against Taiwan.

20 Chinese Military aircraft— Includes 4 nuclear-capable H-6K bombers, 10 J-16 fighters, 2 Y-8 anti-submarine fighters, and KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft — in Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) ) Entered. March 26, according to the Taiwan Ministry of Defense. This was the largest intrusion the ministry has ever reported.

Taiwan’s ADIZ is adjacent to the island’s airspace and is an area where incoming planes must prove their identity to the island’s air traffic controllers.

The invasion concludes the significant increase in Beijing’s hostility towards Taiwan since 2020. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, who was re-elected in January last year, showed a strong attitude toward the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). He deepened cooperation with the United States and urged the administration to escalate global warming to the island.

The Chinese Communist Party considers Taiwan part of its territory and threatens war to put the island under its territory. The autonomous island is, in fact, a de facto independent country with its own democratically elected government, military, constitution, and currency.

The official name of Taiwan, the Republic of China (ROC), defeated the emperor of the Qing dynasty of China in 1911. After the ROC withdrew to Taiwan after losing to the CCP during the Chinese Civil War, the CCP established a communist state called the People’s Republic of China. (PRC) In 1949, Taiwan gradually transitioned to democracy. But to date, the Chinese administration has refused to recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Last year, the Chinese Air Force flew about 380 sorties into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. This is the maximum number for a particular year since 1996. So far this year, Chinese troops have sent aircraft to ADIZ almost every day.

On April 1, the island’s Coast Guard announced that Beijing was flying an unmanned drone near Taiwan’s Dongsha Island, which is located in the northern part of the South China Sea. Officials said Beijing could not deny that it was using drones to conduct reconnaissance.

Alongside military action, the administration sharpened rhetoric to the island. Earlier this year, a Chinese defense spokesperson threatened a war with Taiwan if Taiwan declared independence.

On March 31, Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the hawkish state media Global Times, wrote on his social media that he wanted to order healthy people to blow up bunker in Taiwan during the war.

An unnamed Chinese pilot who flew one of the Chinese aircraft across Taiwan’s ADIZ on March 29, Said“This is all ours,” according to local media, who obtained a record of the pilot’s remarks from the Facebook page “TW Southwest Airlines,” after being asked to leave the airspace by a Taiwanese interceptor pilot. ..

Preparing for aggression

Beijing’s invasion is part of a series of dry runs in preparation for Taiwan’s invasion, John Mills, a former director of the Secretary of Defense’s cybersecurity policy, strategy, and international affairs, told The Epoch Times.

Mills predicts that these exercises could reach a major dry run in the next two years. Given the complexity of amphibious landing operations and the fact that Chinese troops have never crash landed on hostile forces in real life, Mills said these dry runs are necessary.

Amphibious attacks on Taiwan could also include swarms of Chinese private merchant and fishing vessels, Mills said.

He said the invasion could occur in the next three years, much earlier than the six-year estimate given by U.S. Admiral Philip Davidson, the head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Army, at a parliamentary hearing in early March. thinking about.

“If they haven’t been in 10 years, I think [Chinese leader] Xi [Jinping] Probably removed from the office. I think we’ve been pushing it for even six years, “Mills said. He added that Xi could be pressured to attack Taiwan and divert attention from internal issues such as the economic crisis.

But now, Chinese troops are not yet ready to attack the island, Mills said. But the problem is that the longer we wait for the invasion, the more ready and strengthened Taiwan will be.

“We all need to be aware of and prepare for the acceleration of these timelines,” Mills warned.

According to Mills, Beijing’s Taiwanese ambitions stem primarily from the desire to acquire the island’s semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Taiwan has TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip maker.

China relies heavily on foreign semiconductors, which are small chips that power everything from mobile phones to missiles. according to Bloomberg in China will import $ 380 billion worth of chips in 2020, accounting for about 18 percent of all imports.

The administration is currently struggling to secure foreign semiconductors following a series of sanctions slapped by Chinese companies by the Trump administration. US sanctions have crippled China’s tech giant Huawei’s smartphone business. Chinese chip maker SMIC has also been blacklisted for trade.

Counterattack in the United States

Professor Soong Hseik-wen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (ISIA) at the National Chung Cheng University of Taiwan (NCCU) told The Epoch Times that the Chinese administration had announced an invasion on March 26. Action by the US government in March.

These events included President Joe Biden’s first summit with quad leaders from Australia, India and Japan. Meeting in Tokyo between Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Pentagon Prime Minister Lloyd Austin and Japanese counterparts. US-China negotiations in Anchorage, Alaska, according to Son.

“These three events have shown that there is a structural conflict between China and the United States that cannot be resolved by diplomatic negotiations,” he said.

The two-day meeting at Anchorage was characterized by a fierce exchange on March 18. Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party’s chief diplomat, Jan Jietier, has denounced US foreign and trade policy. ..

The meeting shows how far the Chinese administration and the United States are on serious issues as Chinese delegations rejected US concerns about Beijing’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, crackdowns on freedom in Hong Kong, and threats to Taiwan. Emphasized. They were China’s “domestic affairs.”

Beijing saw U.S. action as an escalating effort to confront the administration and decided to strengthen its military capabilities by sending a large aircraft squadron to Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on March 26, Sun said. Said.

A bilateral agreement on Coast Guard cooperation between Taiwan and the United States, signed the day before the invasion, may have influenced Beijing’s plan to take military action against Taiwan on March 26. Sun added. He said the deal was a clear attempt to oppose Beijing after passing a law in January that allowed the Coast Guard to fire on foreign vessels as needed.

With the agreement, the US government “explicitly says” that the Coast Guard will also be part of a maritime strategy to ensure peace and stability in the region, Sun said.

China’s Coast Guard Act raises widespread concern from neighboring countries, including: Japan, Philippines, Taiwan,and Vietnam..

March 28, Palau’s US Ambassador John Hennessy Niran Arrived In Taiwan as part of the Palau delegation led by President Slanger Whips. Palau is one of Taiwan’s 15 diplomatic allies.

Mr. Son may have been able to receive information about the US ambassador’s visit to Taiwan as the incumbent U.S. diplomat visited Taiwan for the first time since Washington ended diplomatic relations in favor of Beijing. Suggested that there is. 1979.

Former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft was planning to visit Taiwan in mid-January, but the trip was canceled at the last minute.

Protect Taiwan

Mr Mills said the Biden administration should adopt a clear deterrent policy against the Chinese Communist Party in the face of rising military threats from China. Specifically, Mr Mills said the United States should have a Navy and Air Force presence not only around Taiwan, but also in the East China Sea and South China Sea.

According to Mills, enhancing Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities is also important, and the Biden administration will need to sell the necessary weapons to the island in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act. Under the law, the United States is obliged to supply the island with the weapons it needs for self-defense.

Finally, Mills added that the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI), drafted under the 2021 Pentagon Expenditure Bill, is also essential to the US military to protect the region. Similar to PDI European Deterrence InitiativeAims to secure a high level of military power to thwart China’s military threats in the Indo-Pacific region.

To prevent the possibility of aggression, Mr. Mills said Taiwan “doesn’t have enough ammunition,” and Taiwan’s recent move to start producing long-range missiles that can reach deep into mainland China is “great.” That’s what he added.

According to Mills, Taiwanese missiles are “a clear message that they will reach out and bear the costs.”

Mr. Soon said that the Biden administration has two ways to support Taiwan: helping Taiwan join international organizations and welcoming Taiwan to become part of a “trustworthy industrial alliance.” Suggested that there is.

In February, Biden signed an executive order to begin a 100-day review of the US supply chain in several major sectors, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and rare earth minerals.

US Embassy in Taiwan, De facto US Embassy in Taiwan, Presentation A virtual forum was held on Wednesday, April 1st, between senior Taiwanese and US officials to discuss efforts to expand Taiwan’s participation in UN organizations and other international forums, including the World Health Organization (WHO). ..

Taiwan is not currently a member of WHO due to opposition from Beijing.

The Biden administration can also take proactive steps to enforce some pro-Taiwan laws signed by former President Donald Trump, Mr Sun said.The law includes the Taiwan Travel Law TAIPEI method, And that Asia Peace of Mind Initiative Act..

Located on the first island chain, Taiwan will be one of the first targets of China’s military aggression in Asia. The first island chain is any boundary from Kyushu, Taiwan, the Philippines to Indonesia in the south of Japan. For decades, Chinese Communist Party military strategists have considered the first island chain a barrier to the administration’s air and naval power, keeping it out of reach beyond the second island chain.

As a result, Sun said some European and Asian countries, especially Japan and Australia, are closely observing Taiwan to see if cooperation between Taipei and Washington is solid. ..

“These countries are monitoring how the US government enacts these laws and question whether they will pay lip services. [about U.S. commitment to allies’ security] Under certain circumstances, “Sun explained.

The Biden administration states that its commitment to Taiwan is “steady.” But according to Sun, it remains to be seen how serious the government is in protecting the island, especially given that Biden himself has never used the word “threat” to describe the Chinese Communist Party. ..

Biden instead formed the administration as America’s “most serious competitor.”

Mr Song said he predicted that the United States and China would be involved in a small military conflict in the near future, especially in the two islands dominated by Taiwan in the South China Sea, Dongsha and Taiping.

“I believe the United States and China are in a new Cold War,” Sun said.

Kathy He contributed to this report.