Commentary
President Joe Biden, the weakest president in modern American history, who presided over the dangerous and bloody collapse of Afghanistan, is now Open-ended pledge Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky told the United States that if Moscow invaded Ukraine, the United States would “resolutely respond.”
Biden’s pledge appears to have been made without coordination with US NATO allies, and NATO itself has not discussed this issue. Since Ukraine is not a NATO member, NATO members, including the United States, have no treaty obligations to defend Ukraine.
Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jason Stoltenberg said in a December message to Zelensky: All allies support Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. And like Biden’s pledge, Stoltenberg’s declaration was not approved by NATO members.
The rattling of American and NATO-led sabers threatens more peace in Europe than in Russia.
Europe encourages conflict with Russia, which could lead to a battle from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, not to mention political turmoil in the capital of Western Europe, and perhaps see the collapse of many NATO allies. Not in a state.
All actual combat must be done by the United States. The European army is not in a position to do much. However, the US Air Force and Army must be launched from NATO countries, putting them in combatant positions in the face of Russian retaliation, even if they have little commitment to their troops. Pull up.
It is not unreasonable to think that the NATO alliance will soon disappear if a serious war begins.
Biden’s pledge and Stoltenberg’s declaration are reckless in another sense. They should have emphasized the need for a political solution and challenged both Ukraine and Russia to come to the table, but their radical statement was to create a provocation that “needs” military action. Encourage hotheads in both places.
Ukrainians Minsk I and Minsk II agreement. This strongly suggests that it will be some form of local autonomy for those whose consequences are not recognized. Donetsk People’s Republicwith lic People’s Republic of Luhansk.. It is almost certain that Ukrainian leaders are resisting for domestic political reasons, and in fact, after Russia recognizes the two republics, it will try to force the United States and NATO to fight for Ukraine. You may like it.
If Russia recognizes these two and, based on it, makes security arrangements that include the open movement of Russian troops to these areas, it will “invade” from the perspective of Biden and Stoltemberg. Will it be configured? If so, what do they do about it?
As part of that, Russia can fry larger fish than Donets’k and Luhansk. The Putin’s red line The existence of the actual NATO army in Ukraine. What we are actually approaching is that the United States has provided Ukraine with sophisticated weapons, spying along the Ukraine-Russia border and conducting military operations in the Black Sea around Crimea. There is no mistake. Putin’s purpose is to pledge that NATO will not make Ukraine a member of the alliance, and that NATO will reduce its aggressive stance at least in the eastern part of NATO, especially in Poland.
Unfortunately, there is no read from the latest Biden Putin’s Phone.. A recent call was to set the stage for negotiations between the United States and Russia on January 9th and 10th. Russia will also meet NATO on January 12th. It included threats of sanctions and other measures, as well as Russian threats to break diplomatic relations with the United States.
It would be unfair to blame Biden for acting domestically without political support for the threat to Russia.There is Strong pro-Ukrainian sentiment in parliament And to some extent, in public. And no one likes Russia very much. However, the battle with Russia is very different from the battle with Saddam Hussein and the Taliban.
Russia Rebuilt the armyEquipped with a strong air force and air defense, it is physically close to all potential targets in Eastern Europe. To make matters worse, it’s hard to understand what an endgame is.
Will the war stay in Ukraine or will it spread to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland? Will Russians chase German and British airfields and bases? Will the US / NATO pledge to stay in Ukraine indefinitely, even if the war does not spread?
Beyond Ukraine, the United States should consider what other people, including China, might do. If even a local war broke out in Europe, China is likely to take military action against Taiwan, and the United States simply lacks the resources and skills to fight two major enemies at the same time. I think it is.
Therefore, Biden’s pledge to Zelensky is dangerous to American interests at many levels.
It’s a thing of the past that Washington stopped and encouraged negotiations before the threat became a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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Dr. Stephen Bryen is considered the ideological leader in technology security policy and has been awarded the Department of Defense’s highest civilian honor, the Distinguished Public Service Medal, twice. His latest book, Senior Fellow of the Center for Security Policy, is “Technology Security and State Power: Winners and Losers.”
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Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of the Jewish Policy Center in Washington, DC.