Brisbane floods hurt real estate prices, but long-term predictions are difficult: experts

House prices in Brisbane’s flood-affected areas will be hit in the short term, but it has been difficult to predict how the market will behave in the medium to long term.

Antonia Mercorella, CEO of the Queensland Real Estate Institute (REIQ), told the Epoch Times that while real estate prices will be hit quickly, owners are unlikely to sell their property immediately.

“Rather, we tend to choose these real estate owners to spend more time repairing and improving their homes, so when they finally return to the market, they’re actually more than they were before the flood. It’s in much better shape, “she said.

At the same time, opportunistic buyers will be waiting for bargains with long-term investments in mind, given the recovery in prices.

The market could even experience higher sales and rents, as floods pushed large inventories out of the market during periods of high demand, Melcorella said.

“People have always known that natural disasters are part of Queensland’s landscape and Brisbane is a flood-prone river city. Therefore, current levels of demand and growth and consumer speed. Given that, it would be interesting to see the behavior of the buyer. Confidence will come back. “

Another factor that made it difficult to predict the market for Mercorella was the fact that some of the flooded suburbs are one of the most famous areas in the city and waterfront properties are always highly desirable. ..

Epoch Times Photo
A man watching the flooded Brisbane River rise in the West End of Australia on February 27, 2022. (Patrick Hamilton / AFP via Getty Images)

Eliza Owen, head of Australian research at Australian housing market research firm CoreLogic, sees how Brisbane’s real estate market responded to the 2011 flood, and it will take four years for the market to fully recover after a disaster. He said he found that.

According to Owen, one of the impacts the company has seen is an immediate decline in transactions and a rapid recovery thereafter.

The rental values ​​of the eight suburbs analyzed also showed no decline, but increased by 4.3 percent annually.

“This could be due to the more restrained rental inventory levels available at the time, which could put upward pressure on advertised rents,” Owen said.

Owen also pointed out that Australians place high value on near-water housing as riverside districts continue to attract premium prices compared to other regions after the 2011 flood.

“We still don’t know if this trend will change based on the predictions of more frequent stormy weather events,” she said.

However, the difference between now and 2011 is the interval between each extreme weather event.

“In 2011, large-scale floods have not affected the area since 1974. This type of flood was considered a” once-in-a-century event. ” For today’s homeowners, that’s just over 11 years, “Owen said.

Short periods can affect buyers’ attitudes from lowlands to areas with low flood risk. It also has high premiums and can discourage buyers from flood-prone areas.

Rebecca Chu


Rebecca Zhu is based in Sydney. She focuses on Australia’s economy, property and education. Do you have a hint? Contact her at [email protected]