Governor of California Gavin Newsom is likely to face a call election This year put him in a unique high-risk, high-paying situation.He just 4th Governor Tested by recall voting in US history, it will come as he normally prepares for a reelection campaign.
The downside risk is very obvious.Newsom could lose his governor and his political career like his predecessor 2003 Gray Davis.. He can also lose the governor, North Dakota Governor Lynn Frazier did He won the Senate in 1922, a year after he was recalled.
Alternatively, Newsom can continue to work, but is well below his performance. 62% displayed in 2018, Which makes him potentially vulnerable in his presumed reelection race. This weakness can seduce a strong Republican challenger, or even a strong Democrat, to take on.
And there is a road pioneered by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. He survived the recall 2012: Newsom could emerge from the recall race as a new and powerful force in his state and the National Democratic Party.
A big win will make Newsom golden
Many recall races are explosive. For example, in 1995, Republicans in California were subject to recall after Democrat Michael Machado came to power. Machad won the recall with 63% of the votes..On the other side of the aisle, Democrats chased Republican Senator Jeff Denham in 2008 — his Victory margin Increased more From 15 percentage points With a recall.
If Newsom joins these early colleagues and wins big, he may effectively drive away serious Republican candidates and huge GOP donors who might have been thinking of leaving him in 2022. not. The powerful performance of the entire ticket helps the Democratic Party to strangle the old Senate (already highly supported) of Vice President Kamala Harris, the majority in Congress, and other parts of the state government.
More importantly, a powerful show by Newsom could help the Democrats maintain control of the House of Representatives.
The president is incredibly incredible Donald Trump loses state with 29 points, 2020 was actually a good year for Republicans in California. After driving in 2018 When they lose 7 seats, Republicans managed to win four parliamentary seats (one in a special election held in November).These victories included three races in which Republican House challengers defeated Democratic incumbents for the first time. Since 1994..
This benefit helped the Republicans significantly reduce the majority of the Democratic House of Representatives. The smallest one In the history of parliament. Republicans regain control of the House of Representatives in the hope of regaining control of the House of Representatives in the hope of reallocating every decade and benefiting from constituency changes in Republican-controlled states, in addition to the traditional rebound of the peaceful transition of power , Exile Nancy Pelosi from the chair. .. Democrats have virtually no opportunity to set legislative priorities later in President Joe Biden’s term.
However, a poor screening in California in 2022 can be fatal to the hopes of the Republican people.California Lose the house sheet If the district map is redrawn after the 2020 census and the Republicans could lose some or all of the four seats won. Newsom’s rapid growth and poor performance by Republican governor candidates could rob these parliamentary races of energy. In a close enough battle, the seats of the California State Legislature alone may be sufficient to maintain Democratic power.
Unlimited funding in recall races
The recall method may actually help Newsom here. Recall election funding laws are very different from regular elections. In California Recall can be divided into two actions, Both take place on the same day. There are votes for or against whether Newsom should stay, and there is a replacement race featuring all potential candidates (Newsam is forbidden to try to replace himself). ..To There were 135 people in 2003 In that race for Davis to succeed..
Top and bottom recall votes are not considered candidate elections. Instead, it will be treated as a voting bill. As a result, election funding limits — a $ 32,400 cap What an individual or group can give to a single candidate — do not apply. Newsome can raise unlimited funding from rich donors and entities. 2012 Recall of Governor of Wisconsin, It operated under similar funding rules, but I saw many individuals donating $ 250,000 each.
California is a failed state: How do you know They are moving to Arizona in large numbers.
Larger amounts can help Newsom, who frankly offers more to donors, as Republicans do not gain control of the California Legislature. He has effectively run for public office for the second year in a row, and this additional election fund keeps his name and face in front of the general public. This extra spending could be another factor in depriving Republicans of enthusiasm in 2022.
If the recall reaches the vote, Newsome is in a real danger zone, as you probably would. His public life may be over. But if he quits, Newsom could become a Democratic hero.
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This article was originally published in USA TODAY: Gavin Newsom: Winning California’s Recall Makes He a Democratic Hero