Can Gavin Newsom lose even if he wins the recall?


Former Governor Gray Davis and current Governor Gavin Newsom.

Indifference and Democratic overconfidence left California Governor Gray Davis in 2002, almost at the expense of reelection, and he was recalled the following year. Governor Gavin Newsom, also a Democrat, faces similar challenges when fighting a September recall attempt. (The Associated Press)

In 2002, California Governor Gray Davis, who ran for reelection, faced an unfortunate Republican opponent named Bill Simon Jr.

A wealthy banker and political rookie, Simon never had a chance to compete with democratic incumbents.He had the charisma of a turnip, betting a position far away from most Californians and bumped into it A chronic and comically incompetent campaign.

But when election day came, the results were amazing. After hours of cliffs where Reed exchanged hands several times, Davis won with only 47% to 42%.

If the explosion had not been expected, the results would not have been close.

This may sound paradoxical, but it’s easy to explain. Self-satisfaction and overconfidence among Democrats requires Davis a second term. Ultimately, these factors caused his recall in less than a year.

Governor Gavin Newsom is at the same risk as trying to avoid Davis’ fate and become the second Governor of California (and the third governor nationwide) to be recalled to voters before his term ends. Facing

His biggest problem is none of the Republicans he faces. Rather, it is indifferent among fellow Democrats who do not save Newsom’s skin without voting. Until recently, many of the governor’s fellow factions treated the recall as a joke, and it was certainly not a threat in states where the Republicans hadn’t won state-wide contests before Apple sold the first iPhone.

But to defeat the attempted recall Crush that. If Newsom spreads in a non-impressive way, as is widely assumed, would it politically undermine him if he seeks a second term in 2022? After all, Davis’s exile seeds were sown by his weak reelection performance just a few months ago.

That experience has shown that victory is not always a victory.

According to a Los Angeles Times survey, six out of ten voters did not recognize the governor’s ability to perform their duties on the day Davis was reelected. They had a dim view of Simon as well. Given that unfortunate choice, many Californians either passed the race or endorsed one of several third-party candidates. It was widely believed that Davis would win anyway, so why?

The result was more than the humility of an unpopular Democratic election night. Solid turnout makes it much easier to force recall votes within a year. This is a feature of the state’s very low eligibility threshold, which requires a signature that reflects only 12% of the ballots cast in the last election.When Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger entered the contest, it was Hasta La Vista For Davis.

Republican Larry Elder, Kevin Fallconner, John Cox, Caitlyn Jenner Everything could be done again in 2022. Agnostic to other merchandising scheme. But if you can’t beat Newsom in a low turnout election recall at a strange time that has a huge impact on the Republican’s very vibrant foundation, you know how one of them wins. Is difficult.

More importantly, Republicans do not have to receive a place close to the majority of votes to win the election if Newsom is recalled. What’s more, you don’t even have to receive anything close to 42% of Simon’s vote. The candidate with the most votes will be the next governor of California, if few.

That will not be the case in 2022.

So the more appropriate question is whether the dreaded Democratic opponents, or two, feel encouraged to take on Newsom if they barely avoid the recall. Blood in the water and all of it.

Maybe so. California faces a lack of rainfall, but there is no lack of ego and ambition. There are dozens of executives in Sacramento and Washington, stars in Hollywood, big names in Silicon Valley, and miscellaneous people with piles of money who believe they can do a better job as governor if they have the chance.

Still, defeating New Sam can be a daunting task, but no matter how vulnerable he may look. The Governor of California is rarely absent. The last incumbent who lost the reelection was Pat Brown of the Democratic Party of Japan in 1966. Prior to that, Democrat Culbert Olson was defeated by Republican Earl Warren a quarter of a century ago.

In addition, polls show that Newsom maintains strong support among Democrats, who outnumber registered Republicans almost 2: 1 and has an overall positive rating among most Californians surveyed. It is shown to be enjoying. He is not Gray Davis.

“I’m not saying it couldn’t have happened,” said Gary South, who managed two successful governor campaigns for Davis and helped fight the 2003 recall. “But if you pick up the bones of history and look for a motive to confront the sitting governor, even if he looks weak, there is no evidence or receipt to suggest that it will succeed.”

All of this enhances the interests of both parties in the recall effort.

The September 14 vote isn’t just about keeping Newsum in power. Perhaps it’s also a vote on whether he should remain Governor of California for the next five and a half years until the second term expires in January 2027.

This story was originally Los Angeles Times..