China will challenge Canada’s sovereignty in the Arctic sooner than Defense Chief of Staff General Wayne Eyre previously warned, experts told lawmakers in testimony before a House committee.
Associate Professor Robert Hubert of the University of Calgary National Defense Standing Committee He said on October 25 that he believed China would bring nuclear submarines to the Arctic region to boost its military power and contest control. The timeline for China to challenge Canada would be earlier than his 20-year prediction by Ayer at the Commission. previous meeting On October 18th Huebert said:
“The period is so short that 20 years is not the issue. [The Chinese] We are currently conducting a capability study,” he said, adding that a more specific schedule would depend on when Beijing would launch a military invasion of Taiwan.
“I agree with General Eyre. The Chinese will be a threat. I disagree with his timeline. I think it will be much more immediate than he expected. about dependents.”
Hubert said Canada has become increasingly reluctant to engage with the international community. He said this was due to the erroneous belief that “geography protects us” from concerns over a military conflict initiated by Russia and China. The timeline is shaped by the regime’s plans to invade Taiwan, a self-ruling, democratic island that Beijing views as rogue territory.
“There is a lot of debate about whether China has plans to deploy nuclear-powered cruise submarines in Arctic waters, but if China does, I would say it is actively preparing for it. I believe, but a cruise missile attack from the north is given to try and catch us off guard,” he said.
“All Canadian observers on this point will change their views as soon as the war on Taiwan begins, because once the war starts on Taiwan, we see both the international repercussions and China’s military power.” Because it becomes,” said Hubert.
“Then we’ll do a reassessment, like we’re doing in phase two of the Russo-Ukrainian war, where people say, ‘Oh, I should have seen this coming.'”
Professor Justin Massey of the University of Quebec, University of Montreal, who testified before the defense committee on October 25, also agreed with this view that China is increasingly challenging the West.
Massey said the once-calm Arctic environment has seen escalating power conflicts marked by a war between Russia and Ukraine, an intensifying strategic rivalry between the United States and China, and an increase in the need for the military to deal with climate-related environmental issues. Change said to be changing due to increased use.
“We have seen these trends of renewed militarization of great powers and climate change for some time. It constitutes a threat that we may be compelled to do,” Massey said.
The Defense Committee also heard testimony from Professor Anessa Kimball of Laval University, who warned of the uncertainty caused by Chinese and Russian ambitions in the Arctic.
Kimbell pointed to Beijing’s attempt to create a Polar Silk Road, an expansion of the Belt and Road initiative, a global infrastructure development strategy put in place by Chinese leaders. Uncertainty about future actor behavior creates more problems.” Xi Jinping in 2013.
“For China, their interest is in the maritime trade, they can travel the region, they can explore the resources. I’ve seen them try several times, such as by tying the to carve out a space for ourselves in ‘to.
Kimbell said the most pressing strategic issue for stakeholders is the uncertainty about the future state of the world following the apparent slow decline of the United States relative to China from an economic and political perspective. I pointed out that
“The reality is that the United States and many other Arctic nations have sufficient capacity to jointly secure the region in times of crisis,” she said, noting that this would escalate the conflict.
“The current composition of defense assets in the region provides some deterrence to ambitions, but is not strong enough to deter incursions into air and sea spaces. and increase the risk of misunderstanding.”
Given China’s ambitions in the Arctic, Kimbell said China needs to be integrated into “existing institutional structures” to codify norms and reduce externalities.
“Great power competition is coming to the region. Early identification of problems and designing appropriate institutional structures to regulate behavior can increase the potential for cooperation,” she said. rice field.