Civil war experts say the United States is heading for a rebellion — the 21st century version of the civil war


Trump supporters clash with police and security forces, such as the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.Brent Starton / Getty Images

  • Political violence experts warned that the United States could head for a modern civil war.

  • Barbara F. Walter told The Washington Post that the United States is showing predictive action in the conflict.

  • She said the United States is ready for a more decentralized rebellion.

Political violence experts say Extremists may be leading the United States towards a modern civil war.

Barbara F. Walter, a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, said: Washington post Earlier this year, in a widespread interview on social media earlier this week, about the dangers of American democracy.

Walter, “The beginning of the civil war: and how to stop themHas spent years studying civil war, investigating risk factors, difficulty resolving, and approaches to end conflicts.

Experts have long believed that each civil war was caused by a unique set of factors that resisted similarities and comparisons. However, as methodologies and techniques improved, Walter said several patterns began to appear in the post, two of which proved to be highly predictive.

She said the first was a variable called anocracy. This term is a measure used to describe some factors related to a country’s government, such as how dictatorial or democratic a country is. Anocracy is measured using a negative 10 to positive 10 scale, the former being the most authoritarian and the latter being the most democratic.

Scholars have finally discovered that the anocracy variable can accurately predict which countries are prone to civil war. Neither complete democracy nor complete dictatorship is at high risk of civil war. Instead, it is the mid-zones that are vulnerable to instability and violence, Walter said.

According to Walter, the United States had a positive rating of 10 for several years, but was temporarily downgraded to 5. Then it was raised to 8.

According to Walter, the second risk factor is when these precarious democratic people begin to organize political parties along their racial, religious, or ethnic identities. Many members Republican Bend over to embrace white supremacism in recent years.

“It was a real surprise to see what happened to the Republicans. They are doubling this almost white supremacist strategy,” she said.

During the Trump administration, Walter gave a campus talk. There she discussed how the United States appears to be preparing for a civil war. She said she remained “disappointed” because her attendees accused her of fear mongering.

“When people think about the civil war, they think about the first civil war,” she said. “And in their minds, that’s what the second one looks like, and of course, it’s not at all.”

She said the United States is not heading for a North-South war in which the people of the country fight each other outdoors. Instead, according to Walter, the country is at risk of a rebellion, a form of civil war.

“This is a civil war in the 21st century, especially in countries with strong governments and strong troops, the United States,” Walter said.

Rebels tend to be more decentralized and are often fought by multiple, sometimes competing, and sometimes coordinating groups. According to Walter, these militants have historically used domestic terrorism and guerrilla warfare to target infrastructure and civilians.

Her expertise in rebel practices is: January 6, 2021 Parliamentary riotsShe said.

“People studying this have seen these groups exist for more than a decade,” Walter told Post. “They are growing. I know they are training. They were hiding in the shadows, but we know about them. I wasn’t surprised.”

The greatest feeling she felt after the siege was relief, she said. Walter called the attack a “gift” and said that the public nature of the devastating riots brought “this cancer” to the forefront of society.

But just because the United States shows these prediction patterns doesn’t necessarily mean that the country is heading for total turmoil, Walter said. However, the threat grows stronger day by day.

“I think it’s very important for people to understand that countries with these two factors on this watch list have an annual risk of civil war of just under 4%,” she said. I told the post. “It looks really small, but it’s not. That means that each year these two factors follow, the risk increases.”

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