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If you’re considering a long-term real estate investment or buying a place to live for 20 or 30 years, you may be wondering which cities and states may fare better than others in a changing climate. You might think
“There are no winners in a world where climate change is getting worse,” said Moody’s Analytics Director of Regional Economics. A recent study of climate risk in the United States.
Climate change is increasing long-term risks almost everywheresaid Cummins and others. The temperature is rising. the sea is warming and risingAlso, scientists say heat and rising sea levels are making some natural disasters more serious.
It’s hard to come up with a definitive ranking of “buy here, not buy there” because influences vary so much across time and space, but the growing evidence highlights some general trends. It helps to
USA TODAY saw First street data and Moody’s Analytics – Two organizations investigating future climate risks – To see which parts of the country are most at risk from these climate impacts over the next 30 years.
Insurance companies and mortgage companies are asking the same kinds of questions, Kamins said. Banks have been asked to “stress test their portfolios for the impacts of climate change”.
The most risky locations are obvious, but think of Florida, for example.
Here’s a guide to what, when, and where climate change impacts are expected to be the worst in the United States.
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Each region recognizes risks
Climate change will affect the United States unevenly in the coming decades. Some areas could experience more heat, more flooding, more severe storms, more intense wildfires, or all of the above.
While the United States won’t see a place submerged or off the map in the next 30 years, Cummins said, freshwater access and insurance costs will be a bigger challenge.
“The amount of risk we face alone, whether it’s the increasing severity of natural disasters or the risks of drought and heat, is becoming more and more apparent each year,” he said. “In some cases, it is bringing new impetus, or entirely new impetus, to governments and businesses that previously did not take the impacts of climate change seriously.”
We all depend on goods and services from other states and countries, so everyone loses out when others are affected, climate scientist said Michael Mann, Director of the Penn Science, Sustainability and Media Center said: at the University of Pennsylvania. “It’s a domino effect.”
East Coast: Winds, flooding and rising sea levels are pushing against many counties and states, especially Florida and Carolina, Cummins said. The bustling economy and proximity to the beach still attract large crowds, but at some point the tide will literally turn against the beaches and coastal riverside communities.
Southwest: Heat and fire pose an increased risk, especially in Arizona, he said.
interior: In a runaway warming scenario, extreme heat could hit these states the most, Mann said. These states are not hurricane-prone coastal areas, but sudden downpours with unprecedented rainfall are also more frequent. One study he co-authored Some of the greatest risks of heat stress It can be found in urban areas of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes.
From Idaho to Minnesota: Some states in the northern United States look better than most, with less pronounced risk, Cummins said. Recent statistics on the influx of newcomers to Idaho and Boise’s burgeoning tech hub show that people may understand that. We anticipate that it could become the next frontier within 10-20 years.
What causes climate change? How can I stop it?
What are the impacts of climate change? Disasters, weather, impact on agriculture.
States that may face more climate change risks
texas – Its vastness and geographic features mean that Texas poses many risks. first street data shows some of the counties at risk of wildfiressome faces High potential for tropical cyclone losses Others are more at risk of flooding. Lone Star State leads the nation in multi-billion dollar disasters, according to information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. There are an average of 5.3 events per year, twice as many as she has in the last 20 years, and the same after adjusting for inflation.
florida – 8,346 miles of coastline, surrounded by water on three sides. Need I say more? Extreme rainfall from rising sea levels and warming oceans could create more intense hurricanes, pushing more people into densely populated areas and increasing risk. Florida has the most spots on the First Street list. Counties with the Longest Potential Hottest Days they experience today.
new jersey – The Garden State has higher counties. First Street List of Potential Increases in Average Annual Wind Losses, extreme fire hazards, and properties exposed to flooding. New Jersey will be hit by her three hurricanes or their debris in 2021-2022. Hurricane IdaHurricane Henri and The Last Traces of Hurricane IanThe forecast for more tropical cyclones and hurricane winds isn’t good news.
California – Over the past three years, the state has experienced the biggest wildfire season in history, the worst drought in 1,200 years, and A series of record atmospheric riversGolden State residents don’t need a reminder of the risks they face, but First Street data shows several California counties top that list. most extreme fire risk Also, some cities with the highest percentage of homes at risk of flooding.
Which states have Moody’s Analytics determined to face the greatest physical risk?
When it comes to weather-related events, hurricanes literally wreak havoc given their acute physical risks. Climate change is already increasing rain in some tropical storms Hurricanes and hurricanes may be slowing down on land, but scientists say research into it is still ongoing. Floods and wildfires were also included in Cummins’ physical risk assessment. Here is his list:
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florida
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Louisiana
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south carolina
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north carolina
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Delaware
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rhode island
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new jersey
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Virginia
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Massachusetts
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connecticut
Other places suffer from changes that occur over time rather than a single headline-grabbing event.
San Francisco faces above-average risk in these categories and more, making it the most at-risk metropolis in the United States, Cummins said.
It’s one of those urban areas where residents aren’t used to extreme temperatures and many homes don’t have air conditioning, he said. In a world where temperatures rise five to ten degrees, unlike Florida, San Francisco residents are ill-equipped to cope with the heat, which can hurt them economically.
Other cities with a gradual increase in risk on Moody’s Analytics list are:
A Cummins study found that metropolitan areas in the Southeast are particularly at risk, as the cyclone parade is likely to become even more intense, in addition to rising sea levels and temperatures. Top 10:
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Jacksonville, North Carolina
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New Bern, North Carolina
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Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
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Wilmington, North Carolina
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Greenville, North Carolina
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Charleston, South Carolina
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Punta Gorda, Florida
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deltona, florida
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San Juan, PR
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palm bay, florida
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Goldsboro, North Carolina
Billion-dollar disaster data helps point to states that are already paying the price of climate change.
If you have any doubts about the risks posed by future climate change, NOAA’s List of Weather and Climate Hazards This caused at least $1 billion in damage.
At least 37 states were hit twice as hard. billion dollar disaster This century, more than the last 20 years.
Tornado activity appears to be growing in the Mid-South, and is occurring more frequently, with extreme rainfall events occurring more frequently along the Mississippi River Valley, according to a USA TODAY study. Both trends may be related to warming in the Gulf of Mexico, the authors say.
USA TODAY Survey A summer of extreme weather has brought about astonishing changes in rainfall in the United States.
But weather events aren’t the only thing that will make disasters more damaging, according to NOAA. As population and development increase in vulnerable areas, more extreme weather events will cause more damage.
“Where you live is important, but how you live is just as important.” Steven Strader, a meteorologist and associate professor at Villanova University. “There are things we can do to better prepare for the current developments in climate change.”
Annual billion dollar disaster events since 2001 (3 or more):
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Texas – 5.3
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Illinois – 3.9
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Georgia – 3.7
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Oklahoma – 3.6
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Missouri – 3.5
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North Carolina – 3.4
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Alabama – 3.3
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Tennessee – 3.3
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Virginia – 3.2
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Kansas – 3.1
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Mississippi – 3.1
Over 300% increase in billion-dollar disaster events each year since 2000:
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Arizona – 500%
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Wyoming – 450%
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Utah – 400%
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New Mexico – 367%
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Nevada – 335%
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Nebraska – 320%
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Colorado – 300%
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Wisconsin – 300%
When considering future scenarios, it’s important to note that many things are in control of the world, Mann said.
Substantial action to limit warming to below 3 degrees Fahrenheit “could limit the deterioration of extreme weather events,” but sea level rise would already be fixed. , meaning that “the impact on the interior of the continent could be severe on all fronts”.
how actions help On Earth Day, scientists will tell us what 2050 will look like. Their answer may surprise you.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY. Which cities and states are worst affected by climate change?
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