Diplomatic negotiations are definitely not a spectator sport. The debate between Russian diplomats and their NATO and American diplomats can be considered equivalent to a baseball winter conference. It’s like “in baseball”.
Recent talks extend the frets that fueled diplomacy during the interwar period of the last century. Those discussions have spawned a catchy slogan that resonates today: “Who wants to die for Danzig?”
Is that still a good question?
The phrase comes from the title of an article by French socialist writer Marcel Déat (“Mourir pour Dantzig?”) Published in the Louvre (Journal) newspaper in Paris on May 4, 1939. This article was about one of Nazi Germany’s ultimatums to the Second Polish Republic, calling for the transfer of control of Danzig (also known as Gdansk-a free city with weak administrative relations with Poland at the time). ..
As a bully of the day, Hitler decided to overturn the military and territorial provisions of the Treaty of Versailles and include the Germans in the empire. Prior to the invasion of Poland, Hitler demanded the merger of the Free City of Danzig into Germany and extraterritorial rail access to Germany beyond the “Polish Corridor”, the frontier to East Prussia in Poland in the spring of 1939.
The turmoil between diplomatic enthusiasts and the geopolitics of Eastern Europe will recognize unforgettable similarities. Vladimir Putin, like Hitler, is a painful loser who has a grudge against recent history. Putin’s pain is not the Treaty of Versailles, but the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Putin, like Hitler, wants to put the watch back. He pretends to be a national solidarity with the Russians in Ukraine. He borrowed a page from Hitler’s book and demanded an “overpass” from Russia to Crimea.
Poland’s Foreign Minister warns: Europe is approaching war
Poland’s Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau publicly admits that Europe is closer to war with Russia than any time 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, as negotiations to ease tensions with Putin are so tough. rice field.
Anyone who has been paying attention to Putin since he came to power knows his desire to reorganize the Post-Soviet Republic as the subject of the Russian Federation. His long-term goal is undoubtedly a larger unified Russian reconstruction under his control. He considers the collapse of the Soviet Union to be the greatest tragedy after World War II.
Nevertheless, his short-term ambition after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 is to establish an overpass between Russia and Crimea through the territory of Ukraine. The Biden administration may be full of sports fans, but I don’t think it’s as familiar with the game as Putin. The Biden administration has focused on Putin’s claim to guarantee that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO.
Ukraine is panicking because Biden does not seem to understand Russia’s basic needs. In a recent poll, 61% of the population wants to participate in NATO. The threat of a runaway event also raises the desire of both Swedish and Finnish citizens to join their country in NATO.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Laser focuses on Ukraine not relinquishing its right to join NATO. Rather than focusing on Russia’s need for overpasses from Russia and Crimea and the end of sanctions imposed by the United States, Europe and Ukraine, it is about spreading what could be World War III. We should focus on three focused negotiations …
1: Russia has trillions of natural gas and oil needed by Ukraine and Europe.
2: All countries involved and China want to significantly reduce short-range, medium-range and long-range nuclear weapons.
3: Comprehensive cyber and space agreement to prevent the initiation of conflicts that could wipe out humanity from the surface of the Earth.
Recalling the occasional wisdom of Donald J. Trump
“Isn’t it better for the United States to have a friendly relationship with Russia?” Former President Trump sometimes said.
Trump’s repeated rhetorical questions were perfectly valid and on target. The only question that could not be answered during President Trump’s term was how to do it without compromising the balance between the United States, NATO, and its allies.
Most Americans may not be aware of this “inside baseball” exercise when Biden addresses Putin about Russia’s military buildup near the Ukrainian border. However, in the Zhongnanhai, the former imperial gardens of Beijing’s imperial city, west of Beijing’s Summer Palace, and China’s Supreme Leader Xi Jinping are following the live negotiations with Putin in the west. Enthusiastic attention.
Xi also has a geopolitical grudge in his neighborhood. This time is Taiwan. Beijing’s microchip-rich island will continue to be part of China. Like Putin, Xi is concerned that earlier parts of his country’s control are becoming more alliance with the United States and its allies.
The ongoing negotiations could be an opportunity to achieve better results than Britain, France and Poland, which could be achieved through negotiations with Hitler before the outbreak of World War II. To achieve such results, the Biden administration needs to combine creative depth with delicate judgment.
Russia may be offered a contract to pay Ukraine to Crimea in the form of gas and oil over the next 50 or 100 years. As part of the contract, all military hostilities between Russia and Ukraine’s surrogate forces, as well as those that existed between China and Britain, in exchange for a 100-year lease of overpasses on the Crimean Peninsula and Ukrainian territory. Stop. And all sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies after 2014 may be negotiated.
Guarantee between Russia, NATO and 57 countries Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe The OSCE may include a permanent rollback of military force at all borders, the demilitarized zone.
It’s time to consider a trading treaty between Russia, NATO and the OSCE, chairing the negotiating table.
Poland’s Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau cites the current dangers in Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Moldova without appointing Russia in the opening speech to the envoy from 57 OSCE members. explained. With Russia. Lau emphasized a huge threat in his statement: “The risk of war in the OSCE region seems to be greater than ever in the last three decades.”
“For weeks we have faced the prospect of a major military expansion in Eastern Europe,” he said, launching a year-long chairman of his country, the largest security organization in the region. ..
Lau reported no breakthrough in a meeting between Russia and Western diplomats last week.
In an interview, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told RTVI (Russian Television International) that Russian military experts are offering Putin an option if the situation surrounding Ukraine’s negotiations fails.
NATO and the United States now occupy their place in the aftermath of the meeting in Geneva on Monday, and in Brussels on Wednesday there are “dead ends or differences in approach” that cannot be overcome. Secretary of State Antony Brinkin believes there is no reason to sit back in the next few days to resume the same debate. That is a big mistake by the Biden administration.
We need to consider offering a deal settlement to end existing sanctions against Russia, which ended the Crimea Cold War in 2014. China supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So it’s not just Russia. War will mean the deaths of tens of thousands of soldiers and innocent civilians.
Russia’s economy is in turmoil and is moving away from the cliffs. Putin has all the incentives to negotiate profitable deals with both Europe, Ukraine, and the United States. To get a win-win deal, the United States and its allies need to bring to the negotiating table a proposal that would mitigate the threat of NATO expansion and provide Putin with a way to turn his economy around.
The possibility to be explored is to shatter the “partnership for peace” that President Bill Clinton first proposed to Boris Yeltsin in 1993. This has emerged as a way to include Russia as a “full participant in Europe’s future security.” .. “
Another point of Warren Christopher’s initiative to ease Russia 20 years ago was the promise that nuclear weapons would not be stationed in the former Warsaw Pact countries as part of NATO enlargement. Indeed, Yeltsin was said to encourage the United States to build a “partnership for peace” rather than expanding NATO.
Looking back at all the titles of Yeltsin’s US-Russian diplomacy (inside baseball), it’s clear that Russians could feel they were misunderstood.
For example, on January 31, 1990, West Germany’s Foreign Minister Hans Dietrich Genscher said, “What NATO has to do is that whatever happens at the Warsaw Pact, NATO’s territory will not expand to the east. That is, it is close to the border of the Soviet Union. “
During a visit to Moscow in February 1990, US Secretary of State James Baker told Gorbachev that “it would not extend NATO’s army an inch to the east.”
Now that we have benefited from hindsight, that promise has turned out to be distant.
Russian diplomatic enthusiasts are well aware that Russians consider it the United States, and NATO promises not to expand NATO to the east. Creative diplomacy is needed to overcome their doubts.
Time is important.
Russian Ambassador Alexander Lucashevich told the OSCE: Strategically balance and eliminate unacceptable threats to national security. “
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov blamed the new sanctions bill announced by the US Senate Democratic Party on Wednesday.
Peskov said sanctioning Putin was equivalent to breaking the relationship.
“We are very negative about the emergence of such documents and statements against the background of the ongoing series of negotiations, although unsuccessful.”
The ferocious rhetoric and the threats before and after must end. All countries involved must not allow verbal wars to develop into World War III.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.