London, UK-A prominent British epidemiologist said the deltacoronavirus mutant in question, first identified in India, is believed to be 60% more contagious than the previously predominant alpha mutant in the UK Said on Wednesday.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said England’s full resumption from the scheduled blockade of COVID-19 on June 21 could be pushed back due to the rapid spread of the Delta subspecies. ..
Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told reporters that Delta’s transmission edge estimates for Alpha are shrinking, “I think 60% is probably the best estimate.” ..
Modeling suggests that the third wave of infection may be comparable to the second wave in the United Kingdom in winter, according to Ferguson.
However, it was unclear how a surge in hospitalization would lead to an increase in deaths, and more details were needed on how well the vaccine would protect against serious illness from Delta.
“When it comes to hospitalization, it’s quite possible that at least an equivalent third wave will reoccur,” he said.
“I think the death toll will probably be lower. The vaccine has a high protective effect, but it’s still quite worrisome. But there is a lot of uncertainty.”
In the UK, more than 127,000 people died within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test, but more than three-quarters of adults were first vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine.
Public Health England has shown that the Delta variant reduces the effectiveness of those who receive only one shot of Pfizer and AstraZeneca, but the protection of those who receive both doses is higher. ..
Ferguson said that up to a quarter of the transmission advantage of the Delta variant over alpha could be due to antigenic escape from the vaccine, a “contribution, but a contribution” to that benefit. It’s not an overwhelming contribution. “