New York (AP) —When the state legislature began to remap the legislature, Democrats were afraid that power would move away from them for the next decade as Republicans ruled state legislatures in case of a disaster.
But as the repartitioning process reaches its final stages, that anxiety begins to ease.
For the Democrats, the worst-case scenario of losing far more than 12 seats in the US House of Representatives seems unlikely. After drawing their own aggressive map in the state where the Democratic legislature is located, some Democrats shift to match the typical parliamentary district from leaning to the right of the referendum to the GOP. The last five house elections are expected to end the distortions that have given the benefits of built-in.
Regarding the Republicans, “we have tried to undermine their intention to send gerrymandering to the majority of lawmakers,” said Kelli Ward Burton, chairman of the National Democratic Reorganization Commission.
The map of the national parliament will not be resolved in the next few months. Republicans in some big states like Florida haven’t finalized the proposed changes yet, giving the GOP a last-minute opportunity to seek advantage.
But this week, the situation could become clearer when the New York Constituency Change Commission submits a second attempt to map to the Legislature. If the Democratic-controlled state legislature rejects the map, it can take over the drawing of new lines in favor of the Democratic Party. It will almost certainly undermine the Republican benefits that have been in place since the last constituency change process in 2010.
The joke in the state capital affects not only the Democratic Party’s difficult efforts to maintain a majority in the US House of Representatives in this year’s midterm elections. It will affect the wider balance of power between Washington and the Legislature for the rest of the decade.
Republicans say they’ve achieved their goals so far, but they’re surprised that Democrats have tried to increase the number of seats they can get. Republicans have taken a significantly different approach with the aim of strengthening the districts of vulnerable members and transforming competitive seats into safe seats.
This is because when the Republicans ruled more states after the 2010 census, they had already expanded the map with aggressive constituency changes. Now that the line has been adjusted to match last year’s census figures, the line is fixing profits while the Democrats are at risk of a counterattack.
According to analysts, in the wave elections, the Democrats spread voters so thinly that they could lose even more seats on the map they drew. And if the party alliance changes over the next few years, the seats that the Democrats thought were within reach could suddenly disappear.
“The Republicans have pretty good tsunami protection,” said Michael Lee of the Brennan Center for Justice. “But for Democrats, a little rain will flood their homes.”
The promotion of democracy comes as the party fails to ban the national partisan gerrymandering — their election bill banning practices died in the Senate last week during a Republican filibuster. Lee, however, said Democrats, however, are still gerrymandering in the states they control, as aggressively as Illinois and relatively mildly as New Mexico and Oregon.
In contrast, experts say Republicans, who dominate more states, have done a lot of gerrymandering in places like Texas, North Carolina, and Ohio. However, the GOP’s map of Ohio was destroyed by the State Supreme Court this month. The Democratic Party expects the North Carolina High Court to follow the state’s districts. This is part of the reason for the party’s growing optimism.
The next and greatest opportunity for the Democrats is New York, which will test how much power the Democrats are willing to give up to fight Gerrymandering. In 2014, the Democratic Party upheld a voting bill to put the process in the hands of a bipartisan committee, saying it wanted to remove the factions from the constituency change. However, the legislature can dismiss the committee. In 2014 it was split between democracy and Republican rule. Currently, the Democratic Party is the majority in both homes.
The New York State Legislature has already rejected the Commission’s first attempt at the map and can take control if it rejects the second attempt by Tuesday.
“It’s hard for Democratic leaders and the people on the far left who run shows in Albany to take over this process to upset the committee and get the Albany party boss to map,” said Nick.・ Langworthy said. Of the New York GOP. “I think they looked at a few states and gave them a shot to keep the majority.”
Republicans only need to win five seats in the November elections to gain control of the US House of Representatives. They have begun a constituency change cycle that manages line drawings in states that represent 187 seats, whereas the Democratic Party controlled only 75 seats.
Kimbral Brace, a veteran constituency change consultant, means that no matter how hard the Democrats fight back, the end result will inevitably be in favor of the Republicans. “They still have a Republican taste in their overall plan,” Brace said.
So far, Republicans have won a small number of seats on the completed map, but it’s difficult to pinpoint the exact number because half of the states haven’t officially adopted the map yet. For example, if the Democrats are aggressive, they could win four seats in New York and drastically wipe out the Republican national interests. However, Florida Republicans were able to compete with Gerrymandering.
Still, Republicans have abandoned multiple opportunities to further fill their margins.
In Missouri, some Republicans are yelling at Congress as they are planning to fix the status quo rather than trying to convert Democratic member Emanuel Cleaver’s seats in the Kansas City area to Republicans. .. In Indiana, the Republicans did not divide the Gary-based district, represented by Democrat Frank Mrvan.
Even in Georgia, where Republicans flooded GOP voters into seats on the outskirts of Atlanta owned by Democrat Lucy McBath, they resisted doing the same to Democratic neighbor Carolyn Bourdeaux. Instead, they packed Democratic voters into the district of Bourdeaux, making it safer so that other Republican seats weren’t compromised.
Adam Kincaid, Managing Director of the National Republican Constituency Change Trust, said supporting Republican incumbents is a party’s top priority. He cites Texas, where Republican maps have made a few Democratic seats even more democratic. This will increase the number of Republican voters in the 23 parliamentary districts hosted by the GOP, creating a safe seat. Republicans and their supporters spent $ 20 million on races in the state during the 2020 cycle. Now Kincaid said they can direct their money elsewhere.
“This cycle went as we expected, but the Democrats made bigger bets than I expected,” Kincaid said.
In contrast to the Republicans, Democrats have been enthusiastic about spreading voters at the expense of incumbents.
The most prominent example is Nevada, where party mappers have moved liberal voters from the once overwhelming Democratic Las Vegas district of Congressman Dina Titus, represented by Democrats Steven Horsford and Susie Lee. Supported two adjacent Blanco seats. It may keep all three seats safe in the Democratic Party in a good year, but endanger them all in a tough election cycle for Democrats like today.
Burton argued that tactical decisions such as those made by the Democratic Party of Nevada and elsewhere are not gerrymandering, but merely draw a line to make the seats competitive.
“We are not afraid of voters,” Barton said. “We are not afraid of the district where voters decide the outcome.”
Joel Wertheimer, a democratic civil rights lawyer and analyst for the Liberal Group Data for Progress, said the constituency change would shift a typical parliamentary district from about 2 percent points to the right of the referendum to Biden’s 5 point margin. I predicted. 2020 popularity vote victory.
He attributed it to a change in the mindset of Democrats who are willing to risk great losses for the final better shot in the 218 seats needed to dominate the House of Representatives.
“I think the Democratic calculation is whether you care about 180 or 190 seats,” Wertheimer said.