Democrats see an edge on an early map of the Senate as Trump casts a big shadow


I will send. Tim Scott (RS.C.) speaks to reporters at Capitol Hill, Washington, June 17, 2021.  (Stephanie Reynolds / New York Times)

I will send. Tim Scott (RS.C.) speaks to reporters at Capitol Hill, Washington, June 17, 2021. (Stephanie Reynolds / New York Times)

Six months after the Biden administration, the Senate Democrats can continue to dominate the Republican constituencies in the 2022 midterm elections, large in marquee races attempting to abuse Republican retirement on major battlefields. He has expressed cautious optimism that he enjoys raising funds. Of the unresolved Republican primary.

Swing-state Democratic incumbents such as Senator Rafael Warnock of Georgia and Mark Kelly of Arizona have spent millions of dollars ($ 7.2 million and $ 6 million, respectively), according to a new financial report last week. I refilled the war chest. This gives early financial benefits in two major states where Republican disagreements over former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept defeat in 2020 could distract and fracture the party. You can get off to a good start.

However, Democratic officials are well aware of the precursory political history they face. During the first interim period of the president, the parties occupying the White House usually lose their seats. So far, the Democratic Party has power only in the narrowest margin of the 50-50 split Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as a tiebreaker and President Joe Biden’s broad economic, pandemic, and infrastructure affairs. Promoting the agenda.

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The interim period is still more than 15 months away, but Biden’s ability to formulate policies throughout his first term relies heavily on his party’s ability to hold the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Next year, four Senate Democratic incumbents will be reelected in Swing State, a major goal for Republican interests. However, in none of the four states of New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, a strong Republican candidate has emerged to strengthen the party’s diverse wing support.

Absent and expelled from social media, Trump continues to insist on leaving his mark on the party in rallies and regular documents that impose strict retaliation on enemies recognized as rewarding supporters. I will. It is inconsistent with Senate Republican strategists who are solely focused on regaining the majority and refining their message against Democrats who now have full control of Washington.

“The only way we can win these races is to be with top-notch candidates,” said Republican strategist Alex Connant, who worked in the Senate race. “Can Republicans hire top-notch candidates in the Trump era?”

All but one of the seven contests that political handicaps consider to be the most competitive in 2022 are held in Biden’s state last year.

“We are running in the country of Biden,” said Matt Canter, a Democratic pollster involved in the Senate elections. “It doesn’t make any of these races easy, but we’re running in the country of Biden.”

Last week’s campaign submission provided an early financial snapshot of the state of play on the Senate battlefield. There, the total cost can easily exceed $ 1 billion.

With the exception of Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, the top fundraiser of all senators in the last three months was Tim Scott, RS.C. Scott raised $ 9.6 million in the months following his federal response. This is a spectacular amount that cast doubt on his 2024 ambitions.

But the races that are important to the Republican Party remain unresolved. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu is considered a top priority for hiring to challenge Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan, who has raised $ 3.25 million in the last three months, and the party remains in several states. I’m trying to find a compelling Senate candidate. A swarm of Republican senators urged Sununu to participate in the race, and Senator Rick Scott, who heads the National Republican Senate Committee, asked activists to “call Chris Sununu” at a conservative meeting last week. I urge him to do it.

“If he does, we will win,” Scott said.

Scott also pursued former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, saying he hopes Laxalt will face Democratic incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Mast last month. It was.

The unexpected retirement of Republican Senators in Pennsylvania and North Carolina has opened up seats and opportunities for these Swing State Democrats, but the path to victory is complicated. In both cases, Democrats need to navigate competitive primaries that force candidates representing different elements of the party’s racial and idealistic coalitions to fight each other. Moderate and progressive; urban, suburban, and more rural.

In Pennsylvania, Democratic Vice Governor John Fetterman has emerged as one of the strongest newcomers to funding, earning $ 2.5 million this quarter. Val Arkuche, a county commissioner on the outskirts of Philadelphia, has raised $ 1 million, and state legislator Malcolm Kenyatta, who aims to become the country’s first openly gay black senator, $ 500,000. Was procured. Moderate Congressman Conor Lamb on the outskirts of Pittsburgh is also considering an escape.

In Wisconsin, Republican third incumbent Senator Ron Johnson has been swaying for months on whether to aim for a third term. Johnson raised just $ 1.2 million in the last quarter. This is enough to continue, but not enough to dispel questions about his intentions.

Wisconsin, whether Johnson runs or not, is one of the Democratic top targets in 2022, as Biden carried it narrowly in 2020.

Perhaps nothing better predicts the outcome of the Senate elections in the recent cycle than the state president’s preferences.

In Florida, the Democratic Party for the People has repeatedly been out of reach, except for anointing former Orlando black police chief Val Demings, who was scrutinized by Biden’s Vice Presidential team. Proven.

Demings raised $ 4.6 million in the first three weeks, surpassing Republican incumbent Senator Marco Rubio and raised $ 4 million in three months. (Records show that Demings spent more than $ 2.2 million on digital advertising to raise that total.)

Retirement of the other two GOPs in the Red States, Ohio and Missouri, further destabilized the Republican map and provided at least a few opportunities for Democrats in Trump’s territory. Republicans are facing primaries in both states.

In Ohio, Republican candidates include former party chairman Jane Timken. Former Treasury Secretary Josh Mandel, who has previously run for the Senate. Best-selling author JD Vance; two executives, Bernie Moreno and Mike Gibbons.

The main Democrat is moderate Tim Ryan, who temporarily ran for president in 2020 and invested $ 2.5 million in banks in July.

In Missouri, early efforts to plead for Trump are plentiful, including spending at his Florida resort.

Two candidates, including Congressman Billy Long and Congressman Jason Smith, trekked to Mar-a-Lago for fundraising or to meet with the former president. For a long time, it has been reported that the club spent $ 28,633.20. Smith, who also participated in a colleague’s fundraiser at Bedminster’s real estate in Trump, NJ, paid $ 4,198.59 to Mar-a-Lago on Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter.

“I’m hoping someone will someday raise a banner and start flying over Bedminster,” said a Republican strategist involved in a Senate election that demanded anonymity. banner.

Missouri’s largest name is former governor Eric Greatens, who resigned after being accused of abuse by an unmarried woman. He raised less than $ 450,000. Among his fundraising activities was Donald Trump Jr.’s girlfriend Kimberly Gilfoil, whose campaign also paid for Mar-a-Lago.

Three other Republicans in the race blamed Greatens. Congressman Vicky Hartzler, Attorney General Eric Schmidt, and Mark McCloskey, best known for swinging his gun outside St. Louis’s home last year. Some National Republican strategists are concerned that if Greitens survives the crowded Primary, it could turn out to be toxic even in Republican-rich states.

Scott promised to remain neutral in the primary, but minority leader Senator Mitch McConnell has long hoped to promote a candidate he believes could win in November. There was.

“The only thing I care about is choice,” McConnell told Politico this year.

With Scott on the sidelines, the Senate Leadership Fund, a super-political action committee in collaboration with McConnell, is expected to do most of the intervention.

Trump, often engaged in versatility with McConnell, appeared to be particularly engaged in racing in Arizona and Georgia, mainly due to his own slight loss in Arizona and Georgia. He publicly urged former soccer player Herschel Walker to run in Georgia, and Walker has not participated in the campaign. And even after Ducey said he wouldn’t run for the Senate, he attacked Arizona Governor Doug Ducey. Some Republican agents want Ducey to get into the race.

Trump has submitted one early endorsement of the Senate in North Carolina to Congressman Ted Budd. Congressman Ted Budd has raised $ 953,000. That’s less than the $ 1.25 million drawn by former Governor Pat McCrory. Win across the state.

In Alaska, Kelly Tshibaka is running as a major challenger to Senator Lisa Murkowski’s Trump supporters, who convicted Trump after the second impeachment. Marcuski, who hasn’t officially announced whether to run again, has more than doubled Tshibaka in the last quarter, rising from $ 1.15 million to $ 544,000.

In Alabama, Trump gave Mo Brooks another early support and recently attacked one of his rivals, Senator Richard Shelby, a retired incumbent Chief of Staff. Brit took part in the race in June, raising Brooks from $ 2.2 million to $ 824,000. The third candidate, Lynda Blanchard, is a former ambassador appointed to Trump and has lent $ 5 million to the campaign.

Brooks defeated Trump in his earliest and most vocal opposition to Biden’s victory. The photos scattered on Brooks’ Senate website are what he is talking about at a rally on January 6, prior to the riots at the Capitol. In his recent submission, one of Brooks’ bigger costs was the $ 25,799 tab at Mar-a-Lago.

“The map is slightly tilted towards the Democratic Party based on the Senate seats,” said Republican strategist Brian Walsh, who has been involved in the Senate elections. “But the political environment is a big unknown and the situation can change rapidly.”

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