Election results are very similar, but countries are very different

The 2021 election results could be a carbon copy of the 2019 election results, but pandemics, policy choices, and deep divisions have left their mark on Canada, observers say.

News analysis

The composition of Canada’s parliament looks much like it was after the 2019 elections, but the impact of the 2021 elections and changes in the situation in recent months could radically change Canada’s future trajectory. The observer says there is.

“At this point, the country seems to be more divided than ever,” former Liberal Party member Dan McTig told The Epoch Times. “And the real reality of our economic situation will soon be revealed.”

David Wraith, vice president of the Frontier Public Policy Center, said Canada appears ready to maintain its current spending trends and regulatory regimes.

“Looking at this election, many seem to be unaware of the major additional costs and taxes that will hurt themselves and their families. It’s the middle class, business investment, and our standard of living and living. Will devastate future opportunities for quality of life, “Wraith said in an interview.

Get the most seats

Similar to the 2019 elections, the Conservatives won a high percentage of popularity votes compared to the Liberal Party, but they are the party that forms the government because the Liberal Party won the most seats.

Epoch Times Photo
“People are waiting in line to throw ballots at the polling place in Montreal on September 20, 2021 (Andrej Ivanov / AFP via Getty Images).”

Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Gerald Butts, said this was the result of a “wise” campaign to optimize voting efficiency and secure the maximum number of seats in the Liberal Party.

“What we see here is a long-term optimization trend, or a response to political market power,” Butts said. Said See a chart on Twitter on September 21 showing that public support for the Liberal Party has declined over time since the beginning of the 20th century. “Incentives work. We count seats, not votes, so smart campaigns are focused on providing them.”

But victory for the political parties that want to form a government, and for certain segments of the population receiving incentives, may come at the expense of others in the country.

“Especially from the liberals, it’s a whole new set of tactics, not really about policy,” says Wraith. “We have many major problems we face in the form of high inflation, low growth and high unemployment development. [that need attention].. “

Nelson Wiseman, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Toronto, states that historically the Conservative Party has been obsessed with ideologically-led factions struggling to set the party’s policy direction. But on the contrary, he says, the Liberal Party is largely obsessed with taking power.

“The Liberal Party cares about one thing: maintaining and winning power, but the Conservatives and the NDP have more ideological impetus,” he said in an interview.

Internal struggles along the idealism explain, for example, why the problem of leader change usually appears as soon as Tory leaders encounter setbacks, while Liberal leaders say the party is in power. As long as the leader is not in power, he can stay safe. He says he will achieve the expected breakthrough.

“All parties are a mix of people, but in the Conservatives it’s very fierce,” says Wiseman.

“There are Liberal members like Maxime Bernier. He left the party and formed themselves to bring the Conservatives back. You have social conservatives … you have fiscal conservatism. And you have the Red Tory Party, who wants to combine financial responsibility with progressive social policy. “

Epoch Times Photo
Conservative leader Erin O’Toole waved to the crowd after giving a concession speech at Election Night headquarters in Oshawa, Ontario, on September 21, 2021. (Canadian Press / Adrian Wild)

Wiseman focused on maintaining power rather than sticking to deep-seated idealistic lines until the party decided to focus on gaining city support after a big defeat in the 1958 election. Follow the roots of the Liberal Party.

“The Liberal Party was once a country party in Canada, and the Conservative Party was a party in central Canada … [After the 1958 election], The Liberal Party has changed its direction to become a party in a big city, “he says.

And as major city centers experienced cultural and ideological changes, so did the Liberal Party, allowing them to continue to enjoy their support.

“Urban centers are the most international. They tend to be the most progressive of all cultures,” says Wiseman.

“Fantasy is coming to an end”

McTigue says the current liberal tactics he calls “buying people’s votes” will bring results.

“People who receive checks by mail may be relieved if someone else knows they need to pay the check, but the illusion is over. Bond rating agencies give credit ratings. It could be downgraded and it could be the stage for higher interest rates, “he says.

Joe Oliver, finance minister under Stephen Harper’s conservative government, said the government would have to balance its books if spending continued and economic growth couldn’t keep up and the future economic crisis was imminent. I’m telling you. Fool the rating agency. “

He states that it was what Jean Chrétien’s Liberal government did in the 1990s, cutting spending, raising taxes, and the public “accompanied”.

Canada is currently far from rehabilitating at the time, but if a similar situation occurs, the role of the government has expanded in recent years, which could increase resistance to taking up government programs, he said. To tell. He added that there may be a backlash if people consider it a government action to get them involved in the situation.

“If you’re not a competitive player, there’s a limit to what you can achieve,” Oliver told The Epoch Times.

Sowing section

Trudeau denied any divisions among Canadians in his winning speech after winning another minority government on September 20.

“Some people are talking about division, but that’s not what I’m seeing. It’s not what I’ve seen across the country in the last few weeks,” he said.

“I see Canadians standing together. With the determination to end this pandemic, real climate change, $ 10 a day childcare, … a path of reconciliation for middle-class families. For our shared journey to walk. “

However, some claim that Trudeau fueled the flames of division during elections for political gain.

Epoch Times Photo
A crowd begins a march following a demonstration protesting the COVID-19 restrictions in Toronto on September 18, 2021. (The Canadian Press / Chris Young)

“The issue of division was deliberately done as a tactic to distract Canadians from the substantive problems we face in our country,” says Wraith.

McTeague agrees.

“The Prime Minister has taken on a second challenge to the deep divisions that exist in many areas, including regional, political and social. Today, we are leaving in a country that has never been so balkanized. I think, “said a former Liberal Party lawmaker.

Major sector-related issues after the 2019 election appeared to be the alienation of the West and the federal government’s clear attitude towards the oil and gas industry on which Canadians in the West depend. Now, the problems that cause the following divisions and conflicts have increased. COVID-19 restrictions and mandatory vaccination policies.

Among the highly disruptive issues raised by the Liberal Party as points of attack against the Conservatives were abortion, gun control, and compulsory COVID-19 vaccination.

“For some time now you’ve probably seen the disturbing wrath of anti-Buxers and anti-maskers. They march downtown against local businesses that comply with public health regulations, grocery store clerks and locals. You may have seen yelling at the canteen’s servers or threatening people at one of the rallies. “Trudeau Said At an event held in Toronto on September 1st.

“Let’s be clear. I’m focusing on your freedom and the freedom of the majority of us who are fully vaccinated.”

The choice of COVID-19 vaccine and the avoidance of lockdowns have become a major issue for Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party. Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party has increased its popular support share from less than 2% in the 2019 elections to more than 5% in the 2021 elections.

“This country was born with cultural diversity, religious diversity, opinions and expressions,” says McTigue.

“But the so-called progressive movement has come to the point where it likes to use the word. [progressive] But in reality, they are succumbing to the restraint of ideas and the diversity of opinions. … We have a prime minister who believes it’s okay to silence and evoke call-out culture. The problem with cancellation is that when it becomes a habit, it excludes many people. “

“Principle response”

Ray states that it is important for Canadians to work together to counter the challenges facing the country for the benefit of current and future generations.

“Over time, I hope people wake up to the reality that superficial debates like those that took place during the elections don’t really have an answer,” he said.

“I hope Canadians will not only notice, but also understand that our problems are much higher and require a principled response. And we think differently and more. You may need feedback to point out that you have to make a good choice and to point out the reality of a bad choice. “

Omid Goreishi


Omid Ghoreishi is a Toronto-based reporter of The Epoch Times.

Posted on