Expected carbon “surge” in the post-covid energy boom


The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that CO2 emissions from energy will increase significantly this year as the world recovers from a pandemic.

According to the agency, total energy emissions in 2021 will be slightly lower than in 2019.

However, CO2 increases at the second-largest annual amount on record.

The use of coal in Asia is expected to be important. The IEA says it will boost global demand by 4.5%, approaching the global peak seen in 2014.

However, renewable energy is also booming, with green sources set to supply 30% of electricity this year.

airport

Unmanned airport during pandemic blockade-Airline demand is likely to remain low until the end of the year

Empty roads, boulevards and airports, which have shown a global response to the coronavirus, have seen their greatest decline in energy demand since World War II.

This reduction reduced carbon emissions by about 6% in 2020, as more carbon-intensive fuels such as coal and oil were most affected by regulation.

Many wanted these changes in energy use to persist in their recovery from a pandemic, These latest forecasts from the IEA Indicates that it is likely not.

Energy demand is skyrocketing in developing countries and is projected to grow by 3.4% this year. This is in contrast to the richer economy, where overall energy usage is expected to be 3% below 2019.

Coal plays an important role in areas of high energy demand.

Global usage fell by about 4% in 2020 and is expected to increase by 4.5% this year.

This is happening primarily in Asia, led by China, and is expected to account for more than half of global coal growth this year.

However, demand is expected to increase in the US and EU, where coal is lagging behind for some time, but these regions may still be below 2019 levels.

According to the IEA, coal demand could be close to the global peak seen in 2014, which will impact efforts to curb climate change.

Fatih Birol, IEA Secretary-General, said:

“This is a disastrous warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently unsustainable for our climate.”

According to the IEA, 2021 emission forecasts will be even worse if oil demand rises to pre-supply levels.

By the end of this year, aviation oil usage is still expected to be 20% below 2019 levels.

However, the IEA report has some positive aspects to renewable energy. Wind, solar and other sustainable forms are expected to grow by 3% in 2020, and the electricity sector is expected to grow by 8% this year.

Overall, green energy sources provide 30% of the electricity generated. This is the highest level since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Reflecting the complexity of the global energy situation, China could account for almost half of the global increase in renewable energy this year.

“As we have seen at the national level in the last 15 years, the countries that have succeeded in reducing emissions are those where renewable energy replaces fossil energy,” said Corinne Le Quéré, a professor at the University of East Anglia. Study the factors It drives countries to change their power systems.

“What seems to be happening now is that there is a large-scale rollout of renewable energy suitable for tackling climate change, which happens in parallel with large-scale investment in coal and gas. I am. “

“Around the world, post-Covid-19 stimulants have funded decades of activities that keep us in high CO2 emissions.”

Later this week, President Biden will host the Climate Summit, which will virtually be attended by about 40 presidents and prime ministers.

The United States is also expected to announce significantly improved emission reduction targets for 2030.

According to the IEA, these actions cannot be taken quickly enough if emissions are curtailed with a view to the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement.

“Unless governments around the world are moving rapidly to start reducing emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022,” said Dr. Birol of the IEA.

“This week, the climate summit hosted by US President Joe Biden is an important moment to promise clear and immediate action ahead of COP26 in Glasgow.”

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