Experts say the 10-year goal for more than 1.5 million Ontario homes is unlikely


According to real estate experts, the Ontario Task Force, which called for building 1.5 million homes in the state over the next decade, is heading in the right direction, but is unlikely to reach its goal. That is.

The Task Force was headed by Jay Clawence, CEO of Scotiabank and Group Head of Global Banking and Markets.The report, release February 8 There were 55 recommendations Twice the number of years It is the number of houses currently built and will maintain that level for 10 years.

Robert Kavic, Senior Economist at the Bank of Montreal, said: Recent economic snapshotsDue to the lack of available labor and skilled trade to meet increasing demand.

“Try and double [housing completions] Overnight, it won’t happen with the labor supply we have, and in addition to all of the bureaucratic formalism and political backlash that will probably come from different parties and neighborhoods and so on. “What?” Kavcic said in an interview with the Epoch Times.

“Some of the recommendations out there are in the very quiet neighborhood of a single-family home, and suddenly,” Well, I’m a little hopeful in terms of going ahead and building three or four unit houses. My street. “Probably there is a pushback there too. And I don’t think it will be as simple as they say. “

The report states that the fewer urban design rules, the easier and cheaper it is to build a home. There is also a need to streamline and depoliticize the housing approval process. One option is state-wide zoning rules to prevent NIMBYism. The report advised local government policies and zoning to promote higher densities, especially so that secondary suites can be built in homes.

Kavcic says densification has already been emphasized How to grow Introduced in 2005. He said the lack of single-family homes is causing upward pressure on prices, as is the increase in demand from immigrants.

“Many of the cities people want to flow in don’t seem ready to absorb it. There’s no easy answer to this. There are many different parts,” says Kavcic.

“We maintained interest rates [sitting] It’s too low and too long. And the psychology of the housing market has made it possible to become a place where prices are much expected to continue to rise. Investors are buying a second or third home, or homeowners are refraining from listing because they think prices will rise. “

Wendell Cox, a senior researcher at Winnipeg’s Frontier Public Policy Center, praised the Task Force’s report.

“I was very pleased [because] They acknowledged the need to build on the Greenfield site. Cox, Principal of Demographia, an international housing consulting firm based in St. Louis, said:

“So many planners are absolutely convinced of the need to increase land use. If you are in an apartment today and you are 20 years old, they will house a house when you are 40 years old. I don’t want you to have it. That’s the basic problem that’s happening here. “

Fixing

Cox said there is “no way” to reach housing goals in a scenario where Toronto housing has grown as rapidly as the rest of the state, even if the Greenbelt is open for development. He said there was already a “massive migration” to other Ontario locations. Kavcic agrees.

“Choose a location. Give it any name you like, such as Brantford, Tillsonburg, Woodstock, Collingwood, etc. Probably at least 50% higher than before COVID. Sounds crazy, but I Is not exaggerated, “says Kavcic.

“”[If people can] Work remotely. Even half the time, instead of being tied up within an hour from downtown Toronto, offers people a lot of affordability and a lot of geographic conditions. “

Toronto according to the MLS list House price January year-on-year increase was 28.4%, with Halifax alone surpassing 29.7% in Canada’s major cities. Prices rose at double-digit rates at all other major centers, with the exception of Edmonton being a flat line close to 1.6%.

Kavcic states that the expected interest rate changes by the Bank of Canada will cool the price hike, but hopes that such changes were made six months to a year ago. In the long run, demand from millennials is expected to decline before the momentum to build more homes gets off to a good start.

“If you look at the population pyramid in Canada or Ontario, it’s probably years away from the maximum housing demand from that cohort,” Kavcic said.

“The phrase here is that you can make a mortgage and buy it faster than you can build a home. This is what you see in every real estate cycle that goes back in time … Demand may disappear tomorrow. The supply will continue until it is complete. “

Lee Harding

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Lee Harding is a Saskatchewan-based journalist and think tank researcher and contributor to The Epoch Times.

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