Gallup polls show the largest increase in Democratic affiliation in 10 years


A report released by Gallup on Wednesday recognizes that more Americans than Republicans are Democrats, with margins not seen for ten years.

An average of 49% of adults over the age of 18 reported Democratic affiliation or said they were independent of Democratic trends throughout the first quarter of 2021. Pollster reported.. The survey was conducted by phone from January to March.

By comparison, 40% of adults have been identified as Republican or Republican. According to the report, the 9% difference is the Democratic Party’s biggest advantage since the fourth quarter of 2012.

The remaining 11% of respondents were politically independent with no partisan tendency.

Democrats usually have an advantage of 4-6 points over Republicans. Shortly before the first quarter of this year, there was virtually no affiliation gap before the Democratic Party’s dominance expanded by 9%.

The report also notes that the number of independents increased by 6%. From 38% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 44% in the first quarter of 2021. This is the highest percentage since 2013, when 46% of survey respondents identified it as independent. This rise correlates with a decline in Republican discernment. This is the same as when GOP became less popular in 2013 when the government closed over the Affordable Care Act.

According to Jeff Jones, senior editor who wrote the report, all investigations conducted by Gallup require the identification of political parties.

“I think it’s important to track down the relevant strengths of the two parties at some point in time and how their preferences react to the event,” Jones told USA Today. ..

The voting error margin was plus or minus 2 percentage points.

According to Jones, the event promotes party loyalty. The latest measurements of Gallup’s parties were made during President Joe Biden’s inauguration — a few days after former President Donald Trump’s supporters attacked the US Capitol on January 6.

“I think we’ll see a similar move with Mr. Trump’s resignation, a very low approval rate, and Mr. Biden’s inauguration,” Jones said.

Mr. Trump finished his presidency with a 29% employment approval rate. This is USA TODAY’s lowest rating ever in office. report..

The· Passing the COVID-19 Relief Package In March, new infections and deaths from the coronavirus, and the promotion of mass vaccination, preceded the growing affinity for the Democratic Party, Gallup said.

Due to vaccination efforts aimed at vulnerable people, fewer people die from COVID-19.However The United States continues to report high levels of cases..

Past jumps belonging to political parties

According to Jones, the surge in Democratic affiliation after President Biden took office reflects the surge in former President Barack Obama’s first term.

“That was the best point we’ve seen. It’s like the period 2006-2009, when the majority of Americans were completely Democratic or independent, but devoted to the party. “He said. “Our data on this dates back to the 90’s, but this is almost the only American majority who consistently had one party on their side.”

According to Gallup, Republican dominance, which is rarer and shorter-lived, followed the 1991 Gulf War (when George HW Bush took office) and the 9/11 terrorist attacks during President George W. Bush’s term. After the 1994, 2010, and 2014 midterm elections, more and more people reported their partnership with the Republican Party.

According to Jones, the Republican’s ability to gain an edge in the 2022 midterm elections may depend on the success of the Biden administration.

“Most of it will depend on how things go throughout the year. The coronavirus will make things better, the economy will recover, and many expect Biden to maintain a relatively strong approval rating. If so, it’s better for the Democratic Party. ” “But if things start to get worse, such as rising unemployment or worsening coronaviruses, his approval will go down, which will significantly improve the situation for Republicans in the middle of next year.”

This article was originally published in USA TODAY: Gallup polls show a significant increase in Democratic affiliation