German consumer morale brightens for October: GfK


Berlin — According to a survey on Tuesday, the mood of German consumers has unexpectedly brightened, reaching its highest level in a year and a half towards October. This shows that households continue to support Europe’s largest economic recovery.

The GfK Institute said the consumer attitude index, based on a survey of about 2,000 Germans, rose from 1.1 points in the revised version a month ago to 0.3 points in October. Measurements compared to Reuters predictions-1.6.

According to GfK, both economic and income expectations have improved significantly, but buying habits have risen slightly.

Consumers have become more optimistic in light of the decline in coronavirus infections, where the fourth wave of pandemics may be less noticeable than many fear.

“That’s why many consumers can see again room for further restrictions,” GfK consumer expert Rolf Buerkl said in a statement.

But Buerkl warned that even if consumer sentiment was near pre-crisis levels, it was still too early to talk about the underlying trends.

“Instead, we need to first see how the infection progresses in the winter and if new restrictions are needed,” he added.

Germany’s consumer spending in the second quarter led to a 1.6% economic expansion, supporting an economy suffering from a supply bottleneck in the manufacturing industry.

The German government expects the economy to gain momentum in the third quarter, but business activity could cool again in the last three months of the year.

October 2021 September 2021 October 2020

Consumer environment 0.3—1.1—1.7

Consumer Climate Factor September 2021 August 2021 September 2020

— Willingness to buy 13.4 10.3 38.4

— Expectations for income 37.4 30.5 16.1

— Business Cycle Expectations 48.5 40.8 24.1

Note-The survey period was from September 2nd to 13th, 2021.

The Consumer Climate Index forecasts real personal consumption trends for the following month.

Indicators above zero indicate a year-on-year increase in consumer spending. Values ​​below zero indicate a decrease compared to the same period a year ago.

According to GfK, a one-point change in indicators corresponds to a 0.1% year-on-year change in personal consumption.

The “buying motivation” index shows the balance between positive and negative answers to the question “Do you think it’s a good time to buy a major product?”

The Income Expectations Subindex reflects expectations for household development over the next 12 months.

The additional Business Cycle Expectation Index reflects the ratings of those who are questioned about the general economic situation over the next 12 months.