Governor of California Gavin Newsom (D) State RecallPredictions show that he will secure victory in the biggest battle of his political career to date and protect the Democratic Party from dangerous spillover effects.
Polling In the last few weeks leading up to the September 14 elections, he suggested that Republican-led efforts to bring him back would fail, largely due to growing enthusiasm from Democratic voters. In last month’s vote, competition was fierce and Republican turnout was high, so Newsom’s supporters remained in the lead, even if numbers shifted in his favor.
The ballot asked voters two questions: Do you want to remember Newsom? And if he is recalled, who should replace him among the 40+ other candidates? Although seemingly easy, the deal has opened up the possibility for competing candidates to become the new governor of California with little help.
If more than 50% of voters answer “yes” to the first question, the candidate with the most support in the second question will replace him. If so, even if 50% of voters wanted to keep Newsome, a candidate with only 20% of voters’ support could have become the leader in California.
His most formidable enemy was Larry Elder, a conservative radio presenter in support of former President Donald Trump. Allegations of domestic violence By his ex-fiancée.
The idea that Elder will be promoted to the top job in azure California Only 24% of registered voters identify Republicans, Unthinkable for many. But the elder bet his claim on the state’s red pocket, burying real-life TV star Caitlyn Jenner, moderate Republican Kevin Faulconer, and businessman John Cox in polls leading up to the election. In early September FivethirtyEightThe consolidated average of elders was 23.5%.
Newsom lost to the Republican Party Major impacts beyond California.. Democrats in the state legislature make up a non-veto majority, limiting the power of the Governor of the Republican Party with respect to state law, but can affect the composition of the US Senate.
If Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif), the oldest member of the Senate at the age of 88, retires or dies before the end of her term, the governor will nominate her successor. increase. Republicans seemingly nominated someone from their party, overturned a very thin majority of Democrats in the Senate, and returned control to the GOP.
A successful Newsom recall could lead to similar efforts in 18 other states that allow civil servants to be recalled, but the criteria for obtaining a recall on ballots are much higher in most other states. It has become. In California, recall supporters need to collect signatures from 12% of the voters in the last governor’s election. This will be 1.5 million shy people in this race. In most other states that allow recalls, About twice That percentage.
The recall organizer for him also acknowledged that the judge would allow a 120-day extension of the usual 160-day signature collection period in November, “making it virtually impossible to seek proper signatures without overtime. Also. ” During a pandemic.
That extra time allowed Newsom’s opponents to take advantage of a weak period for the governor. Newsom suffered a significant decline in popularity as he became more frustrated with the closure of pandemic schools and businesses and fueled the recall movement. And in an incident that might bother him over the years to come, he was photographed eating in a semi-closed restaurant space- At the ultra-luxury French Laundry in Napa County, No less. In November, 12 guests from multiple households participated. Newsam apologized for violating the spirit of his own COVID-19 safety rules when going out.
With the victory in the elections on Tuesday secured, Newsom now has to face the challenge of putting the scallop behind him in advancing his political aspirations. It’s an open secret that Newsom turned to a higher political position, but he must first pass next year’s governor’s election.
This is a developing story. Please check for updates.
This article was originally published HuffPost Was updated.