Half of Americans predict that the United States may one day be “not democratic.”


Trump supporters fight the police in riot gear.

Trump supporters clash with police outside the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. (Robert Schmidt via Getty Images / AFP)

According to a new Yahoo News / YouGov poll, most Democrats (55%) and Republicans (53%) think the United States is “likely” to “become non-democratic in the future.” Country direction.

Half of all Americans (49%) express the same feelings when taking into account independents and those who do not declare political parties, but only a quarter (25%) are likely to end US democracy. Another quarter (25%) are not sure they are.

But at the same time, many Americans appear to be indifferent to the attention-grabbing hearing by the House Commission investigating the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. Attacks on democratic processes in US history.

In fact, a new survey of 1,541 adults in the United States from June 10 (the day after the Commission’s first hearing) to June 13 (the day of the second hearing) found four. One (24%) watched the first Golden Time broadcast live last Thursday. A small percentage (27%) said they later received news coverage. Almost half (49%) said they did not attend the hearing at all.

The image of Donald Trump will be displayed on the large screen above the Commission on January 6th at the second hearing.

Donald Trump was portrayed at the Commission’s second hearing on Monday, January 6th. (Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images)

Therefore, while the data appear to be that many Americans have lost confidence in the future of democracy in the United States, they are interested in taking into account actual attempts to undermine it. It seems that relatively few people can see it. It raises a disturbing question: Did Americans simply give up democracy?

Polls don’t go that far. But that suggests that Americans have given up most of each other.

As always, partisanship is the key to understanding what’s happening here. Live audiences for the hearing were the lowest among Donald Trump voters (9%), Republicans (13%), and Fox News viewers (22%). It was the highest among Joe Biden’s voters (47%), Democrats (44%), and MSNBC viewers (52%). Almost three-quarters (72%) of viewers were identified as Democrats or independents who are devoted to Democrats.

As a result, as a result, less than half (45%) of Americans say they believe in the core claims of the Democratic-led committee. The January 6 attack was “part of a plot to overturn the election.” The rest say they weren’t (35%) or uncertain (20%).

Similarly, only 37% of Americans believe there was a plot, “Donald Trump [it]— Other major discussions on the committee.

Again, Partisan affiliation defines these views. 84% of Biden voters and 77% of Democrats believe the attack is part of a conspiracy to overturn the election. 71% of Trump voters and 59% of Republicans believe the attack was not part of such a plot. In the question, independents are evenly divided — 39% yes vs 41% no —

But if Republicans and independent Republicans have largely denied the January 6 Capitol riots, why are most of them pessimistic about the future of democracy? For the same reason, I almost refused to see the inquiry in the first place. They see Democrats as a real problem, not Trump supporters who have invaded the Capitol.

And Democrats feel almost the same about Republicans.

When asked to choose the phrase “most people on the other side of the political aisle are best portrayed by you,” the majority of Republicans “have no contact with reality” (30). %), “Choose extreme negatives such as” threat to America “” (25%), “Immorality” (8%), “Personally threaten me” (4%). Only a few choose more empathetic phrases such as “good faith” (4%) and “not much different from me” (6%).

Democratic results are about the same, with negatives such as “no contact with reality” (27%), “threat to America” ​​(23%), “immorality” (7%), and “personal threat”. There are things. (4%) It is significantly higher than the positive numbers such as “good intentions” (7%) and “not much different from me” (5%).

On the other hand, the number of voters in Trump and Biden (28% and 25%, respectively) who say the other side is primarily a threat to the United States is twice as many as the other side mainly says “wrong about policy” (28% and 25% respectively). 14% and 13%).

This explains why 43% of Republicans continue to say that “left-wing protesters trying to make Trump look bad” continue to say “most blameable” on January 6. “Gathered at the Capitol” and 12% of “Right-wing groups like Proud Boys” There is no evidence that liberals were involved..

Trump supporters raid the Capitol.

After the rally on January 6, 2021, Trump supporters raid the Capitol. (Samuel Corum / Getty Images)

It also helps explain why January 6th committee members are cut off for their work if they want to move public opinion. According to a new Yahoo News / YouGov survey, anger at House’s research has only been eroded in the last seven months.

  • Still limited to the minority, the belief that the attack on the Capitol was “justified” (17 percent) rose by 5 percent. After December (12%); The best ever.

  • The number of Americans (30%) who describe January 6 participants as “mainly peaceful and legally compliant” has also increased by 6 points (from 24%) since December.

  • At the same time, the number of Americans who held Trump “significant” responsibility in the January 6 attack decreased by 6 points (45% to 39%). Elections were stolen “(down 42% to 36%) and” Trump supporters gathered at the US Capitol “(down 50% to 43%).

  • Also, 60% of Americans said in December that they thought “another attack like January 6 could occur in the future,” but now a minority (53%) say. I say so.

The investigation contains one small core of hope for the House Committee. In December, 72% of Republicans predicted the Commission Do not “Tell the Truth” About January 6 But Today, the Number of Republicans Saying the Commission Is not To tell the truth, the number of people who do not understand is 10 points higher (28%), while it is 12 points lower (60%). It may suggest some openness to persuasion.

But even such uncertainties can eventually be consumed by partisan hostility. Currently, 60% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans believe that the United States is becoming a “less democratic country.” Only 23% say the country is “more democratic”.

Republicans, in particular, are much more likely to agree that the United States treated “people like them” more equitably in the “past” (71%) than in the “today” (36%). (46%).

A majority of Republicans (52%) also said that “there is a high probability of a civil war in the United States.” [their] Lifetime “; Half of independents (50%) and multiple Democrats (46%) agree. In each group, less than four in ten say another civil war is unlikely to occur.

Supporters of Donald Trump are raising the federal flag outside the Senate.

A Trump supporter who raised the federal flag outside the Senate during the assault of the Capitol. (Sole robe via Getty Images / AFP)

And perhaps most disturbingly, only about half of Americans are asked if they are willing to exclude “physical violence” (50%) and “use force against the government” (47%). At that time, such measures were “justified to protect the country from radical radicals.” About a quarter of Americans were justified in violence (26%) and armament (23%). It states that there is a possibility.

These trends are noteworthy, but especially on the right side, as January 6 itself showed. Eight in ten (79%) of Trump voters say that “restricting freedom of speech” is prohibited as a way to protect the country from militants. 65% say the same thing about “protesting outside the private residence of a civil servant.” However, only 39% refuse to use force against the government in such situations, and nearly the same number (31%) can justify it.

Only 15% of Biden voters agree.


The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a national representative sample of 1,541 US adults interviewed online from June 10 to 13, 2022. This sample shows the US Census Bureau, and 2020 presidential (or non-voting) and voter registration status. Respondents were selected by YouGov’s opt-in panel to represent all adults in the United States. The margin of error is about 2.9%.