The tropical cyclone Henri, now spinning west-northwest about 320 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, could be the first hurricane to land in southern New England in 30 years.
Important reason: Factors ranging from the sticky soils of previous storms to astronomical high tides to Henri’s slow forward movements combine to create a unique and dangerous scenario for New England that begins on Sunday and lasts at least until Monday. To do.
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News promotion: A tropical cyclone, Henri, masked its intensity and survived the fight against the strong upper winds that overturned the towering thunderstorms. But just as storms cross the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the next few days, their winds are projected to loosen.
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At 2:00 pm (Eastern Standard Time), the storm was at the peak of the hurricane, with a maximum wind speed of 70 mph, indicating that the storm was beginning to intensify.
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The National Hurricane Center predicts that the storm will be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane within the next 24 hours before it weakens during its approach to New England.
environment: New England has seen damaging hurricanes before, but they are uncommon. In addition, when a storm reaches this high latitude, it tends to be trapped by the jet stream winds and move quickly north-northeast.
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In many cases, the storm is in a position where Henri tends to bend harmlessly toward the sea, but if there is a high pressure in the northeast and a low pressure in the west, it is predicted that Henri will flow to the coast instead.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration According to the database, only five hurricanes have landed within 100 miles of Boston since 1950, and the hurricanes on the list are particularly well-known for their damage to coastal areas.
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These include Hurricane Carol in 1954, Donna in 1960, Gloria in 1985, and recent such storms, Hurricane Bob in 1991.
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However, Henri is predicted to differ from all of these storms in that it moves much slower as it approaches or crosses the coast. This can quickly weaken as you move over land, but can lead to coastal floods that last for multiple high tide cycles, in addition to prolonged strong winds and intense waves.
Threat level: Henri’s accurate intensity and course predictions are still quite uncertain, ranging from category 2 storms landing on Cape Cod to strong tropical cyclones hitting Long Island and New York City.
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However, the National Hurricane Center is confident enough to monitor hurricane watches on the south coast of New England and the largest surges (high tides landed by storm winds in addition to tide levels of 3-5 feet). .. — The whole area.
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But what is especially unusual for this storm is that as Henri approaches the coast, atmospheric steering currents are projected to collapse and the storm will slowly crawl.
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Since Hurricane Bob struck New England in 1991, sea levels have risen primarily due to anthropogenic climate change. This makes today’s surges more dangerous than they were during the last hurricane the region faced.
What’s next: The Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service’s Boston office are urging residents of southern New England and New York, especially from New York City to the tip of Long Island, to prepare for strong winds, heavy rains, and potential. In the case of a long-term power outage from the end of this weekend to the beginning of next week.
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Expect orbit and intensity forecasts to be fine-tuned on Friday and Saturday. Fluctuations in these expectations will have a significant impact on areas most likely to bear the brunt of a storm.
This is a developing story. Please look forward to the update.
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