Here are the seven most likely Senate seats

With just over two weeks to go until Election Day, a settlement is likely as Republicans and Democrats battle for control of the Senate.

With both camps just wrapping up their third-quarter funding releases, we are right in the middle of debate season, and Republicans are starting to feel that the economic tide has turned in their favor at just the right time.

On the Democratic side, abortion remains a hallmark issue widely voiced by candidates to maintain control of the Senate.

Here are the seven Senate seats most likely to be overthrown next month.


The campaign of Lieutenant John Fetterman (Democrat) and Mehmet Oz, considered a golden opportunity for the Democrats to win a seat in the Senate, is now a true toss-up. (Associated Press)

The campaign of Lieutenant John Fetterman (Democrat) has long been considered a prime pick-up opportunity for Democrats. Especially over the summer, after Mehmet Oz limped out of a taxing primary. Democrats still see him as their best bet for a seat change, but the dynamics of the race have changed significantly since mid-August as Oz, with the help of Republicans outside the group, turned this into a true toss-up contest. A few more weeks.

Attacks aimed at Fetterman’s criminal record and personal background put Oz in a race that political operatives on both sides believe will be settled.a New Fox 29-Insider Advantage Vote showed that the two candidates were tied at 46%. This marks Oz’s best result in the poll for the general election.

A central issue during the race concerned Fetterman’s health after suffering a stroke just days before the primary election in May. All eyes are still on Fetterman on Tuesday, when he and Oz participate in the campaign’s first and only debate.

“The question is, are the answers to the questions voters have about the economy enough to get us going?” TJ Rooney, who led the “There’s light at the end of the tunnel, and that’s exciting.”


The margin in the race between Sen. Catherine Cortez Mast and Attorney General Adam Laxalt (Republican) did not exceed two points, according to a three-time survey in October. (Associated Press)

The battle between Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (Democrat) and former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (Republican) is over, and the winner will help determine the future of the Senate majority.

First-term senators Cortez Masto and Laxalto have long been seen as the hallmark Senate matchup on the board. That’s less than 2 points, with Laxalt leading by 1 point in the latest CBS News-YouGov poll released Thursday.

“Everything points to a very close election. said.

“Most of the voters in Nevada are probably making decisions. It’s now a function of blocking and tackling — identifying voters and kicking them out.”

With early voting beginning Saturday and mail-in ballots in the state’s two most populous counties, Washoe County (Reno and Carson City) and Clark County (Las Vegas), the mechanics of that operation are somewhat It will reach its climax this weekend. in the past week.

In addition to the huge amount of money that has flooded Nevada, there are top deputies appearing in Nevada in the final month of the campaign. I will be campaigning for Cortez Mast and Gov. Steve Sisolak (Democrat) in Las Vegas.President Biden thursday indycatering He, too, will travel west to endorse Democratic candidates.


Senator Raphael Warnock (D-Georgia) and Georgia Republican Senate Candidate Herschel Walker

Senator Raphael Warnock (D-Georgia) and Georgia Republican Senate Candidate Herschel Walker

Georgia Senate Election Remains Tight Despite Public Calls for Ban on Abortion Without Exception Despite Reported Herschel Walker Covering the Cost of Women’s Abortions is. (Greg Nash)

While the national mood tends to lean more Republican, Herschel Walker (Republican) has tested the idea against Sen. One.

Reports that Walker paid for an abortion have continued to reverberate this week as Warnock’s campaign rolled out a new ad titled “Hypocrite,” prompting the former University of Georgia to defy his call to ban abortions without exception. (which he has held since then). tried to return).

“For your sake, Herschel Walker wants to ban abortion,” the ad’s narrator said before turning to the allegations.

Nevertheless, the race remained close as the top Republicans decided to stick it out in favor of Walker despite allegations. We continue to think we have a chance, which may be due in part to the potential margin of Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (Republican) victory over Democrat Stacey Abrams. According to his latest RealClearPolitics average, Kemp leads him by 5.6 percentage points.

“It’s still tight,” said one Republican operative involved in the Senate election. “Is there a Venn diagram where he 5-10% of Kemp voters who vote for Warnock?


Republicans attacked Lieutenant Mandela Burns (Democrat) with a series of ads devaluing him on crime and many other issues, giving Senator Ron Johnson (Republican) a 3-point lead. (Greg Nash/Associated Press)

Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns (Democrat) is staying at the ball game to beat Senator Ron Johnson (Republican).

After falling behind in August following a delay in the state primary, a barrage of Republican advertising aimed at undermining Burns on crime and a host of other issues appears to have paid off. Johnson now leads the incumbent lieutenant governors by nearly 3 percent.

Burns’ concern at this point dates back to 2016. Throughout Johnson’s first re-election campaign, he trailed in every poll leading up to his election day, but still won. The Wisconsin incumbent has led Barnes in every poll taken in the past month, including her school’s poll in the recent market, which showed Barnes six points ahead of her. Or it was a draw.

Nonetheless, Democrats like the possibility of causing chaos on November 8th.

“Unbelievably close. … I feel better than ever,” one Democratic strategist told The Hill. “There was a moment in early September when Barnes was dominant, and then in late September, Johnson was dominant. Things are a draw and it’s like a bit of a jump ball.”

north carolina

Rep. Ted Budd (Republican) leads or trails Democrat Cheri Beasley in nearly every poll taken in North Carolina districts since Labor Day. (Associated Press)

In one of the quietest races on the Senate map, Rep. Ted Budd (R) is trailing Democrat Cheri Beasley in the race to succeed outgoing Senator Richard Burr (R) with a slight but firm lead. increase.

In polls conducted since Labor Day, Budd was either leading or tied, even though many polls put him within margin of error against Democratic challengers.according to Each latest survey The incumbent congressman, released by Trafalgar Group and East Carolina University (ECU), extended his lead.

“Although it remains competitive, the latest polls show Ted Budd as the frontrunner for the Senate race in North Carolina,” said Peter Francia, director of the ECU Center for Research Studies, in a statement. . ECU polls show Budd leading him by six percentage points.


For Rep. Tim Ryan (D), one of the biggest problems in competing with JD Vance is that he failed to get more than 45% rake in any of the October polls. (Greg Nash/Associated Press)

As the old saying goes, melee doesn’t count, except for horseshoes and grenades. This is the problem faced by Rep. Tim Ryan (Democrat), who continues to follow closely behind his JD his Vance in the Republican Party in states that have become increasingly loss-making in recent years. I’m here.

According to the latest research, Vance holds a 2.5 point lead. But Ryan’s biggest problem was never getting more than 45% rake. In any poll this monthOhio Democrats tried to punch Vance, who won the Republican primary with Trump’s backing earlier this year, but it didn’t help him deliver a meaningful blow. rice field.

“Tim Ryan is running a great campaign,” another Republican strategist involved in the Senate race told Hill. “His problem is convincing people he’s a Republican.” He was a Liberal Democrat for 20 years…the idea that this is a race is ridiculous.

new hampshire

Sen. Maggie Hassan’s lead may continue to narrow as economic issues become more prominent in voters’ minds. (Associated Press/Greg Nash)

The biggest change from the last edition of this list is Granite State, where Senator Maggie Hassan (D) continues to outpace Republican Don Bolduc, but the race is tighter than some expected. may become.

Bolstered by a delayed primary and the absence of a major Republican challenger (see: New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu), Hassan has seen what was expected to be a tough general election voyage by the wayside. We’ve seen. But if public sentiment has anything to say, according to the latest information, Hassan’s lead is only seven points. AARP survey — may shrink as economic problems continue to arise.

On Friday, Boldak’s campaign released an internal poll conducted by a company run by former President Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrezio that gave Hassan a 2 percentage point lead, from 49 to 47 percent. Thus emerged the fuel behind the idea of ​​possible upsets.

“If you bet, [Democrats] It’s probably holding up, but it’s closer than people think,” said the first Republican operative.

But just hours later, cold water was poured on the idea as the Senate Leadership Fund, run by an ally of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). $5.6 million in advertising canceled Granite State shows Republicans across the country waving white flags at the races.

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