How Putin and Xi blow it all up for Biden


Getty

Getty

Joe Biden In roll.. His approval rate is higher than his predecessor. Almost three-quarters of Americans think he handles the COVID pandemic well. 60 percent approve the treatment of his economy.

So now is the time to see what goes wrong and start paying his attention across our borders. It’s no coincidence that Biden’s rating is delayed. At our southern borderAll of them were magnified by the desperate immigrant knowledge that Donald Trump had left, where his efforts to solve the problems exacerbated by his predecessor caused problems one after another.

But that’s not the only thing the world knocks on. As Biden’s predecessor knows, the results are often problematic. Barack Obama was elected to get us out of the war of George W. Bush, and in his first year he discovered how difficult it was and actually raised the level of our army in Afghanistan. (Beyond the opposition of his Vice President). George Bush was fine until September 11, 2001. Bill Clinton’s first foreign crisis also took place in his first year in office at the Battle of Mogadishu and the infamous Black Hawk Down incident. In George HW Bush’s first year in office, both the uprising and slaughter of Tiananmen Square and the wave of revolution in the collapsing Soviet satellite state changed the geopolitical landscape.

Although today is a very different world, the two developments that still involve America’s most important international rivals, Russia and China, represent Biden’s future challenges. Russia has been increasing its military and military resource deployments along the border between the Crimean Peninsula and Russia and Ukraine in recent weeks. And China is stepping up its positive stance towards Taiwan, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, which are deeply concerned by Asian and US military leaders.

Neither Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nor China’s attack on Taiwan are considered most likely to be the short-term consequences of their saber rattle, but they do not mitigate the risk of these situations. In both cases, it is because the United States has a very high interest in our interests and allies, limiting our effective options. It should also be emphasized that in both cases the chances of military action by the enemy are not zero.

In Ukraine, recent diplomatic negotiations involving Russians, Ukrainians, Germans, French, and European security cooperation organizations in various combinations have been unproductive. Not surprisingly, Russians say their actions “never relate to anyone.” Russia does not pose a threat to any country in the world. And, of course, given their achievements, their words were greeted with distrust. Ukrainian troops are on the alert. My nerves are worn out.

Regarding the conflict areas of Taiwan, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, concerns are based on the gradual acceleration of China’s capacity building over the years. The Chinese navy has been expanded. Deployment and flight over the conflict area is increasing. Chinese rhetoric ranges from non-apology to totally confrontational. Last month, the commander-in-chief of the region said in a Senate hearing that he expected a threat to Taiwan to come to mind within the next six years. But serious problems look faster and more certain. Just a few days ago, China announced that training for carrier strike groups near Taiwan would be a regular event, and the United States responded with a second visit to Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike groups this year.

If Russia expands its dominance in Ukraine and China and deliberately or otherwise attempts to cause conflicts around Taiwan or in the waters it claims, the consequences will be a major crisis.

The Biden administration has been active in both areas. The president spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a few days ago. A few days earlier, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with a Ukrainian responder, saying the United States supported Ukraine “in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression.” During a recent trip to Asia, the Secretary of State revealed that the United States did not support China’s “coercion and aggression,” raising China’s hackle when he called Taiwan a country. At the bilateral meeting, the United States emphasized these points. Most recently, the United States has expressed solidarity with the Philippines in opposition to the provocative invasion of Chinese ships in the Philippine waters.

Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping of Russia, at least to some extent, to test the Biden administration, has confirmed how corresponding to these threats. So far, they have seen clarity and decisive toughness. But in reality, whatever our declarations and policies are, it is unlikely that the United States will take direct military action to protect Ukraine or Taiwan. The potential risks of rapid expansion, large losses and global conflicts are too high.

In short, the Biden team needs to avoid these crises before reaching that point. They must build a united front with their allies to show that the negative impact on the aggression is significant and that the United States will not be isolated. They need to make it clear that there are red lines that fall short of the actual attacks that cause heavy sanctions. They need to emphasize that they will provide active support to strengthen the defenses of all allies in the region. They need to strengthen their military readiness in a way that sends a clear message. And above all, they need to find diplomatic means to relieve these tensions.

In the absence of war, if any of these aspects are lacking, these conflicts can proliferate and become a great distraction, create tensions with allies, and / or create a weak or invalid appearance in their hometown. there is. So far, Biden and his team have done the right thing. They stand out in particular with Trump by embracing both multilateralism and diplomacy, while at the same time astonishing some with the clarity and strength of their reaction to the Chinese and Russians.

However, when it comes to foreign policy, the problem is that the United States does not hold all the cards. Putin, who is trying to build support in his hometown, may resort to his well-known tactic of seeking victory abroad near Russia. Airborne encounters with the Navy in the vicinity of China can easily lead to accidental collisions and consequent escalations. China has recently been more brutal in Hong Kong and its northwest, suggesting that it is less influenced by world public opinion.

These are not the only potential international risks that can complicate President Biden’s life. North Korea remains a risk. Tensions in the Persian Gulf remain high. There is also a good chance of frustration in Afghanistan when we dial back our presence. In addition, COVID pandemics are rampant around the world and can cause depression, vaccine tensions, and humanitarian crises.

History and current reality work together to provide compelling reminders. Therefore, if Joe Biden builds on his successes or keeps momentum on the national agenda, he needs to be aware of the looming dangers around the world. Even the most capable of his predecessors.

For more information, see The Daily Beast.

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