If Biden burns AOC in a $ 4 trillion deal, he pays

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Win McNamie / Getty Images

Win McNamie / Getty Images

After four years of uninteresting jokes It may finally be America’s Infrastructure Week When the Democrats compete to move two major legislations: $ 579 billion bipartisan plan to repair sick roads, bridges and energy infrastructure in the country,and Drastic $ 3.5 trillion budget plan The Senate Democratic Party will pass a partisan vote.

But while Joe Biden and the Senate Democrats are focusing on solidifying Republican support for smaller bipartisan bills, Congressman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez has omitted the priority of progressive spending. If so, I swear on a large package of torpedo Biden. In a fundraising email to supporters Monday night, the AOC said, “I can laugh at the idea of ​​being limited by bipartisan deals,” and she and her progressive colleagues in the House of Representatives “refrain from voting on infrastructure bills.” I swear repeatedly. Budget proposals, including climate control, childcare and immigration reform, will be passed at the same time. “

This brought Biden back to the corner that had been going on since the bipartisan agreement was first announced, and Biden immediately said, “If this is the only thing that comes to me, I haven’t signed it. In parallel with his larger package, which must be passed using reconciliation without Republican support. “

Now AOC keeps him in his words Even if Senators are willing to vote, they face the daunting task of creating a big budget that will satisfy all members. Bernie Sanders To Joe Manchin Without losing already unstable GOP support in the process.With Biden Chuck Schumer You can start by treating the party’s left as a serious negotiator instead of a rubber stamp.

Joe Biden played Lucy and pulled football from the Republicans

There is some evidence that the president, albeit late, understands the important role that progressives play in conducting infrastructure transactions through Congress. In addition to his declaration after the bipartisan agreement was announced, Biden invites Sanders to the White House Last week we talked about adjusting Democratic legislation.

But in partisan Washington, taking a step forward often means another setback.Over the weekend, Ohio Republican Senator Rob Portman announced his party. Does not support Strengthen IRS enforcement to support payments for Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure package. As the Republicans claim, it left scrambling to find other ways for the president to pay immediately for major spending measures.

“”[Biden] Mr Sanders told reporters outside the White House after a two-hour discussion in the Oval Office. This is not the dynamic that the very rich want to change. It becomes even more difficult if the Republicans oppose not only raising taxes on the rich, but also giving the IRS the power needed to ensure that the rich actually pay what they have already borrowed. “

Meanwhile, both the infrastructure bill and the spending bill Wobble on the brink Of the collapse. On Monday, JP Morgan’s morning market note predicted that either the $ 579 billion bipartisan bill or the partisan reconciliation bill would pass, but neither would. “The chances of the bill not passing are not zero,” their analysts warned.

JPMorgan, unlike bipartisan infrastructure contracts, the Democratic Party Line Reconciliation Bill includes “social infrastructure” spending on education, public health, senior services, and programs used by low-income Americans. It’s likely to be pessimistic. All of these have to be paid through more tax revenue. These sources of income are essential for progressives and never happened for Republicans, and a virtuous cycle of income can kill one or both transactions.

And did not pass Both Both Sanders and Ocasio Cortez support bipartisan infrastructure packages, subject to the passage of a settlement bill that invests well in low-paying nurses, home care workers, physiotherapists, and more. , The bill means turmoil within the Democratic Party. We provide basic care for the elderly and disabled.

Biden had Strong $ 600 billion investment After all, with his original infrastructure proposal care worker. But the proposal collapsed after the Republicans demanded that bipartisan bills focus only on traditional infrastructure areas such as roads, bridges and ports.Biden Most receded from his broader spending proposal in JuneBut Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell has already demanded deeper round cuts in exchange for his blessing. Selling Democratic budget hawks like Kyrsten Cinema and Manchin in Arizona for additional spending is not so easy.

Democrats hated this funding idea under Trump. now? Not so many.

Freeing Republicans from their natural hindrance and joining the actual legislative coalition is an impressive feat of Biden-style negotiations. But if it involves the progressive loss of Democrats, it makes no sense to carry Republicans. If Biden is unable to build a serious bridge to progressives Protect access to ballots To Immigration reform, He’s not going to get the money to build a literal bridge.

Progressivists have already demonstrated their willingness to provoke a public battle with democratic leaders. Back in May, members of the “squad” including Congressman Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley and Cori Bush Almost killed the Democratic Party’s highly announced parliamentary security bill After the party abandoned their concerns about increasing police accountability. Snubbing the left of social infrastructure will almost certainly trigger a full-scale campaign to humiliate Biden in the house.

Progressive will be a headache for the rest of Biden’s presidency. Especially if the progressive and moderate fragile coalition that elected Biden in 2020 collapsed in less than a year. And progressive leaders unite the party by refusing to rubberize Biden’s priorities while their own policy proposals are overlooked and rushed to abandon conservative compromises. Reject the idea of ​​jeopardizing.

On Wednesday, Schumer takes a big step by Call for a vote to start the discussion About small bipartisan transactions. However, Republicans have already warned that despite the list of compromises between Biden and the Senate Democrats included in the package, they cannot guarantee support for the deal. If the bill survives, final action could come hours before Congress rests for summer vacation.

There is not enough time for Democratic leaders to get infrastructure negotiations back on track. Attempting to advance negotiations without addressing the explicit concerns of progressives like Ocasio Cortez and Sanders risks failure of the entire transaction. Schumer and Biden are already fighting a unified right-wing messaging machine that has decided to portray infrastructure spending as a march to communism.

Alienation left It will destroy Biden’s last hope to prove that compromise can work in our cramped era.

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