In 2015, federal liberals moved from third place to government. Can the 2022 Ontario Liberal recover?

State liberals became irrelevant in some states, such as Alberta and Saskatchewan. In Manitoba They have only 3 seats. But in Ontario, some observers say it’s a different story, even though it fell to third place from the party that established power in 2018.

“Liberal brands are very strong in Ontario. After all, they are the dominant political party in the federal government. They are certainly not in Alberta,” said Nelson Wiseman, an honorary professor of political science at the University of Toronto. Said in an interview.

According to Wiseman, Alberta’s liberals have fallen in place of progressive consavatives after being premiered by NDP leader Rachel Knotley in 2015. He served as MLA and led the party from 1968 to 1984.

This period coincides with Pierre Trudeau’s reign as a federal liberal leader. His name recognition and charisma allowed his son Justin Trudeau to return the party from third place in 2011 to a majority government in 2015.

Stephen del Duqa, who currently heads the Ontario Liberal, does not have Trudeau’s star status in 2015. A longtime liberal insider was elected to the MPP in 2012 and later served as Minister of Transport and Minister of Economic Development and Growth. In 2018, he lost Vaughan’s seat to PC candidate Michael Tibollo.

After winning 58 seats and 38.6% of the popularity polls in 2014, Ontario Liberal owed $ 10 million to fund the campaign, but in 2018 it had 7 seats and 19.6 votes. It fell to the historical lowest value of%. The Liberal Party lost its status for the first time since the coalition.

Wiseman, who says the Greater Toronto Area will be the battlefield for elections, believes the Liberal Party will make a profit as the NDP loses its place with them and perhaps the PC.

“NDP had the last chance to win the election. They didn’t. Now [Andrea] Horwath has been the leader for the longest time and I think the general image of her is more formed. And while people are more positive overall because they don’t know Del Duca, the NDP brand isn’t as strong as liberal in Ontario. The brand is, “he said.

“Recently, some union movements have warmed up to the Conservatives, but civil servant trade unions are certainly not. But when you look at car workers, the Ontario and federal governments subsidize car makers. I’m very happy to be pouring money into it. I don’t think steel workers are so unhappy because of the construction boom. “

Scott Bennett, a professor of political science at Carleton University, says Howas’s novelty has been worn down. He says Delduca is a “pretty good activist” and the party has shown that it is familiar with more public transport and the pitch of increased profits for the elderly.

“It’s true that liberals and NDPs are competing for some of the same voters, but the liberal campaign did a pretty clever job of packaging some of the campaign’s proposals. They’re pretty clever. Communicated in a punchy, catchy way [and] It’s tactically smart, “Bennett said.

“NDPs may be able to get more support from certain types of union-related organizations. However, election advertising regulations have changed and third parties are more likely to support political parties through advertising costs. It’s getting harder. “

Bennett believes that the Liberal Party will increase popularity polls and share of the general seat, but may not be able to catch the NDP.

“They will receive a lot of support in highly urbanized areas, such as inside Toronto and parts of eastern Ontario, but it would be better for them if that support were distributed a little more to the rest of the state. Let’s do it, “he said. ..

Leader debate

Bennett did not see a knockout punch during the leader’s debate on May 16.

“Del Duca felt very effective at the beginning and the beginning of the debate. He was a little late when people attacked the liberal record and did not fully focus on Ford. … Howas was fairly fair to attack both Ford and Liberal, “he said.

“NDPs and liberals were selling old laundry lists to settle things through regulation, bureaucracy, and taxes. When they said” concrete action, “they set up a bureaucracy or It meant expanding and protecting the public sector or jobs near the public sector. Ford seemed to really understand it, and he used it well. “

“People often think Ford isn’t very sophisticated,” he added. “He’s probably pretty sophisticated in his own way, in fact.”

Lee Harding


Lee Harding is a Saskatchewan-based journalist and think tank researcher and contributor to The Epoch Times.