Loss of Taiwan’s independence will hinder US power in Asia: James Carafano

Given Taiwan’s geopolitical position as the first in a chain of islands, according to James Carafano, director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center, if the autonomous island were to fall into China’s hands, the United States would will no longer be able to exert its power in Asia. For foreign policy research.

“If the Chinese Communist Party were to take full control of the first island chain from Taiwan to the South China Sea by force, it would be a strategic blow to the United States and truly end the United States as an Asian power,” Carafano said. rice field. An interview with the program “China in Focus” about NTD.

“Taiwan independence is a matter of vital concern to the United States.

Experts say the best way to help the United States protect Taiwan from the mainland is to keep traffic free and open in the Taiwan Strait.

“Therefore, the United States must and should exercise its ability to defend air and sea spaces. That is the greatest contribution the United States can make,” he said.

“If China controlled all the waters between Taiwan and the Chinese coast, they could smuggle their submarines and diesel submarines out of ports and hide them there.

He added, “Having American troops on Taiwan is not, and probably will not, be of any real military importance.”

In addition to the military perspective, America can fulfill its commitment to defend the islands in other ways “including diplomacy, political support and economic engagement.”

balance of military power

Carafano said the CCP’s fighting power may be limited because it has not been involved in any major battles for a long time.

“China has not engaged in a large-scale armed conflict since its war with Vietnam decades ago. This is a military that has not been battle-tested,” he said.

“It is a force that is still partially transitioning from primarily providing domestic security and strategic deterrence to being able to deploy and fight at the operational level.”

As such, it is still unclear how the regime will handle long-range combat and long campaigns should it move to invade the island.

“[In  the case of] long distance [fight], for example, multi-domain between the mainland and Taiwan, which means air, sea, space, land and undersea, long campaigns that require logistics such as moving goods, the Chinese do not have very long I’ve been doing this for a while. So their military is in a sense untested,” he stressed.

Carafano also noted the regime’s quantitative superiority over the United States in the event of armed conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

He pointed out that although the United States has more global military power than China, the United States is still a global power with global interests and global responsibilities.

On the other hand, from a military perspective, China is still a regional power, he said.

“China can focus all its military power in the Indo-Pacific, but the United States cannot,” he said.

“The battle in the Indo-Pacific is not the only battleground for them, it’s a home game. For us. It’s an away game,” said an expert.

As for the military strength of the two countries, he said, “there is a degree of balance, imbalance and uncertainty in military power.”

“And then China could launch a massive campaign and think confidently that it could beat the United States today. I would say no,” Carafano said.

Hannah Ng


Hannah Ng is a reporter covering US and Chinese news. She holds her Master’s Degree in International and Development Economics from the Berlin University of Applied Sciences.

Tiffany Meyer


Tiffany Meier is a New York-based reporter and host of NTD’s China in Focus.