Lukshenko Hybrid-War at the Polish-Baltic Border EU Resolution: Experts

Pressure is being placed on the European Union (EU) to address the alleged weaponization of migrants by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

Lukashenko and his administration ordered thousands of migrants from the Middle East to be transported to the EU borders of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, threatening unity and solidarity between the EU and its northern member states.

“Lukashenko used the immigrants who were advised to come to Belarus as a weapon,” Dr. Wojciech Lorenz told The Epoch Times.

Lukashenko, an analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, motivated Lukashenko to do three things: de facto international approval of his administration, relaxation of sanctions, and revenge on those who support Belarus’ democratic opposition. It states that it has been.

“After last year’s forged presidential election in Belarus, Poland and the Baltic states were very active and pressured the administration to limit the crackdown on the opposition,” Lorenz said. “They also mobilize international public opinion and the EU to impose political and economic costs.”

When asked by the Epoch Times whether the weaponization of Lukashenko’s immigrants had consequences, Lorenz pointed out only partial success.

“Most EU member states are unaware of Lukashenko’s legitimacy as president, and since then Western leaders have not met him,” he said.

When German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to talk to Lukashenko, he achieved at least one of those goals. This is a de facto recognition. However, the negative aspects of this decision are somehow limited by the fact that Merkel is an extroverted prime minister. “

EU support for Poland and the Baltic states is currently retained, but this may change as the crisis deepens.NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltemberg prior to this week’s EU Defense Ministers’ Meeting Said “We are deeply concerned about how the Lukashenko administration is using vulnerable migrants as a hybrid tactic against other countries, which actually puts the lives of migrants at risk,” the alliance said.

Meanwhile, Polish Prime Minister Mateushmoravieckis Negotiations between Lithuania and Latvia Whether to activate Article 4 of the NATO Charter.

This encourages formal consultation if alliance members become aware of a threat or breach of territorial integrity. It pointed out that Lorenz brings benefits and risks.

“The question is whether to invoke Article 4 to show that NATO members in the region are in such a serious situation that they need more substantive support,” he says. “In my opinion, such a decision should be largely computationally based, and how both Belarus and Russia can use the crisis to escalate military tensions.”

And these tensions are real. This week Russia showed military support for Lukashenko’s administration, Joint paratrooper training with Belarus near Poland Gathered with Yelnya’s army of 90,000 Near the border between Russia and Belarus.

In these tensions, Poland and the Baltic states declared a state of emergency and restricted access to border areas, while pushing migrants back to Belarus and leaving them stuck, thus moving migrants from the EU border. I’m moving away.

However, there are serious concerns that the EU, along with the EU NKVD, may not uphold the resolutions of its member states. Ilva Johansson Last week, the EU showed that the situation still needs to be assessed.

“Pushback should never be normalized,” Johansson said of the policy.

“We are still under assessment, but I think we will seek amendments to some laws,” said Johanson, referring to the strict border laws of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

Moreover, this is not the first time the EU has been in a difficult situation on immigration issues. In 2020 Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey Unless he was rewarded, he threatened to flood Europe with “millions of refugees” and eventually received € 6 billion in EU support to accept migrants to Greece. Many of those same immigrants are believed to have flooded the EU anyway after being airlifted from Istanbul to Minsk.

However, Lorenz believes that the EU has a strong incentive for united solidarity, given the experience of the 2015 migrant crisis.

“I think the EU understands that its credibility is at stake during such a crisis. This is what most states expect from the EU, and the EU , Will be able to effectively deal with hybrid threats under the threshold of public war. “

But while the EU is moving slowly to determine the fate of these immigrants, the human cost of the situation is increasing.

Polish soldiers serving on the border with Belarus last weekend Died from accidental shooting Includes Polish weapons. Moreover, A 19-year-old Syrian man drowned While trying to cross the river at the border between Belarus and Poland. Fear of intensifying border violence as immigrants, mostly young men desperate to overcome the blockage as the frosty winter approaches, break through border barriers and try to plunge into EU territory Is also continuing.

this week Polish border guard responded After migrants began throwing stones and projectiles, water cannons and tear gas injured several police officers.

Crispin Rovere