Macron faces a tough battle over parliamentary rule after the first vote


Paris-President Emmanuel Macron fights to win an absolute majority in Congress, allowing him to rule freehand after a powerful show by the new Left Alliance in the first round of elections on Sunday. Facing

Elabe’s first estimate is that left-wing veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon’s NUPES is strangled with Macron’s Ensemble. The alliances in the first round are 26.20 percent and 25.8 percent, respectively.

Elabe predicts that the ensemble will win 260-300 seats on June 19, setting the majority seats to 289 seats, and NUPES will increase significantly from 2017 to secure 170-220 seats. ..

Macron struggles to re-election in April as rapid inflation pushes up living costs and lowers wages, and Melenceon makes him a free marketer, eager to protect wealthier families than wealthy ones. I’m out.

“Given this result, the great opportunity it offers us and the fate of a common homeland, I call on people to defeat the miserable politics of Macron’s majority next Sunday,” Melenceon said. Said after voting.

In a two-round system that applies to 577 constituencies across the country, popularity voting in the first round is an inadequate indicator of who will ultimately win the majority next week.

At stake is the ability to pass Macron’s reform agenda, including pension reforms that make France work longer, which he says is necessary to ensure long-term fiscal order. Says.

His opponents on the left are pushing down the pension age and starting a big spending drive. Melence’s block takes advantage of the anger of rising living costs and the recognition of Macron’s weakness in connecting with the general public.

Government insiders expected a relatively poor show on Sunday’s first round for Macron’s coalition.

A record number of voters abstained, pollsters predicted, and more than half of all registered voters were away from polling stations on hot and sunny Sundays.

A messy coalition?

Polls predict that NUPES may deny Macron’s absolute majority in the second round of June 19.

There are no polls showing that NUPES has won the majority of the ruling party. This is a scenario that pushes France into an unstable cohabitation period where the president and the prime minister come from different political groups.

The NUPES manifesto includes a pledge to limit the prices of dozens of commodities to curb inflation, raise the minimum wage, shorten retirement age and increase the distribution of wealth.

Its frontman, Melenceon, has long worshiped the late Fidel Castro of the Cuban communist regime and the former socialist leader of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez. He wants France to leave NATO.

“National sovereignty is not Europe fascinated by the authoritarian regime and its ties with Russia, but a more independent and powerful state within Europe,” Elizabeth Borne said after voting on Sunday.

Approximately 14 of Macron’s ministers are competing in local races and could lose their jobs if they fail to win a seat.

One of the most endangered ministers is European Minister Clément Beaune, a member of eastern Paris and campaigning. As a former adviser on issues such as Brexit, 40-year-old Beaune is a close ally of the president.

“It will be a painful loss,” government sources said.

On the other side of the political spectrum, right-wing leader Marine Le Pen has won more than 55% of the votes in her constituency, but has to face the final vote due to the rule of minimum turnout. I have.