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The Daily Beast

“Knife Battle at Phone Booth”: Census Turns Incumbents Against Each Other

Congressman Alex Mooney was ready when the Bill Clarke / Getty Census Bureau announced on Monday that West Virginia would lose one of the three seats in the US House of Representatives. Republicans, who have represented central West Virginia for six years, have quietly stockpiled campaigns to easily send democratic challengers to this bright red area to pay cash. He entered 2021 by spending more than $ 2.7 million on banks for the campaign. This is a huge sum for a modest member of the safe seat. Call this a rainy day fund for one of the most horrifying types of political misfortune that can fall on lawmakers. Every decade of Congress, members are inevitably placed in a colleague’s district when the lines of Congress are redrawn based on population data from the latest census. These situations can create the cruelest types of election contests, incumbent and incumbent. Even the prospect of such a battle has spurred many members to retire early instead, noting that they are losing in the game of political music chairs. Coming in January 2023, Mooney apparently doesn’t want to be a member of the West Virginia State Assembly of work. His fellow delegation Republicans, and potential rivals in the not too distant future, have a fraction of the battlefield of the campaign. Congressman Carol Miller, who represents the southern part of the state, has only $ 66,000 on hand. Prior to the Census Bureau’s announcement, Congressmen Mooney, Miller, and David McKinley signed a joint statement: “Elections for Congress” and they will revisit the situation when the state legislature redraws the map in the fall. However, the principle of these incumbent cage matches is that those who start from the back stay behind. It’s a knife fight in a phone booth, “said Matt Gorman, a Republican strategist who previously worked in the party’s house campaign division. “You need to move quickly and ruthlessly.” West Virginia is not the only step for such maneuvers. The other six states will lose seats in Congress, and if the past is a guide, even the states that represent the states that did not lose seats are far from safe. These contests stimulate high drama and often unique impact factors. Democrats are still discussing the fierce 2012 competition between two ideologically similar Los Angeles Democrats between Brad Sherman and Howard Berman. Near the end of the campaign, it became physical after Sherman, then 58, tried to put Berman, then 71, into the headlock during the debate. The shaman has won and is in office. In 2022, stakes in such a brutal civil war are even higher as House domination rests on the edge of the razor. In the final round of constituency changes, Republicans accounted for a majority of 50 seats. Currently, the Democratic Party has a majority of six seats. With all seats important and all dollars important, leaders of both parties will want to prevent potentially wasted primaries that do not affect the path to majority. .. There is a risk of losing seats due to member-to-member primaries, “said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist who worked in the party’s house campaign division during the 2012 constituency change cycle. “But member-to-member primaries will take eye, oxygen, and donor interest and divert it from the urgently needed fall competition race.” At this stage, the Census Bureau is at the top. Only announced the population of the line, so it’s difficult to pinpoint which district could be in the chopping block in the other six states that lose seats beyond West Virginia. Since the last constituency change in 2012, there have been 10 incumbent-to-incumbent battles. For example, in Illinois, there are speculations that Republican seats in the southern part of the state could be abolished or become Democrats. -Seats held in the suburbs and exurbs of Chicago. New York focuses on the declining red and purple northern regions, and Ohio focuses on district loss in the old industrial center of the northeastern part of the state. Democrat Tim Ryan, the current representative of the region, began bidding on the US Senate on Monday. In some states, the party that controls the government is likely to bring together two members of the opposition to strengthen its dominance. Georgia hasn’t lost its seat, but observers believe that Republicans can cast two Democrats, Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux, in a district that spans the northern suburbs of Atlanta. I will. Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic strategist who has been involved in post-election races, said many lawmakers are quietly preparing for these possibilities, knowing that safe seats do not pose a dilemma. It was. Land on the party committee radar, which focuses only on the majority. “That’s why they now need to raise money and prepare for the worst,” Trippi said. The leader is usually neutral in such races, at least publicly, with exceptions. In 2012, Eric Cantor, then Republican’s second-ranked leader of the House of Representatives, gave a $ 25,000 check to help Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), who defeated his Republicans in the primary. I cut it. On the side, leaders like President Joe Biden and Chairman Nancy Pelosi may work quietly to anticipate a fierce battle. A former lawmaker who lost his seat in a past constituency change spoke anonymously and frankly, saying, “The president can play a role in helping to avoid such primary conflicts.” “She may be going to Biden, she can avoid a $ 10 million primary for a Democratic seat.” Twitter is obsessed with Road Island’s Roll Call Calamari GOP side: Donald Trump Former President Trump is the de facto leader and his most coveted supporter, especially when he is at war with Republicans who think he is not loyal enough to him, he blows up politics within the party. I’m not shy about that. It was always a nuisance, regardless of party or political mood. In 2012, two Arizona Republicans, David Schweikert and Benkir, the son of the former Vice President, took part in a race that covered the allegations traded in by Schweikert. “These primaries are running in what we think are ours, which leads to long-term Republicans on both sides,” Ferguson said. ught was their friend. So it adds a personal touch to the contest. The announcement of the 2020 census on Monday removed some potentially tough primaries from the table. Rhode Island held two seats in the House of Representatives, confronting Democrats David Siciline and Jim Langevin as directly as possible. Siciline had more than $ 1.1 million in banks for his campaign as of mid-April. Also, in Minnesota, there was no brawl among the four Republicans representing areas other than Twin Cities, which may have been brewed before the Census Bureau announced that it would retain all eight seats in the state. There is. Start plotting possible primary. However, dozens of other members are stuck playing the waiting game as the state government has begun the constituency change process. Republican freshman Peter Meyer has deposited more than $ 500,000 in a bank for reelection in the western part of Michigan to the right. Lansing’s Independent Commission will determine what a district will look like or whether it will exist after dropping Michigan from 14 districts to 13 districts. A map that reflects the community of interest. — Find out more at The Daily Beast in a report from Matt Fuller. Post your top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now! DailyBeast Membership: Beast Inside digs deeper into the stories that matter to you. learn more.

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