More than 1 million voters switch to Republican and warn Democrats

Washington (AP) —Political changes are beginning to take hold across the United States as tens of thousands of suburban Swing voters who have boosted Democratic interests in recent years are becoming Republicans.

More than a million voters turned to the Republican Party in 43 states last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by the Associated Press. Previously unreported figures reflect what is happening in almost every region of the country (Democratic and Republican states, cities and small towns) in the subsequent period. President Joe Biden Replaced the former President Donald Trump..

However, the shift is more pronounced and there is no more dangerous place for the Democrats than in the suburbs, where highly educated swapping voters who have opposed Trump’s Republicans appear to be retreating in recent years. Last year, far more people switched to Republicans in suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. Republicans have also established positions in counties around medium-sized cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Raleigh, NC; Augusta, Georgia; Des Moines, Iowa.

Ben Smith, who lives on the outskirts of Larimer County, Colorado, north of Denver, Colorado, said earlier this year after growing concerns about Democratic support for a compulsory COVID-19 vaccine in some areas. Registered as a member. Suppress violent crimes and frequently focus on racial justice.

“It’s better to reject the left than to accept the right,” said Smith, a 37-year-old professional counselor who began his transition from the Democratic Party five or six years ago when he registered as a libertarian.

According to political data company L2, AP surveyed about 1.7 million voters who are likely to have switched affiliations in 42 states where data exists in the last 12 months. L2 uses a combination of state voter records and statistical modeling to determine party affiliation. Party switching is not uncommon, but the data show a clear reversal from Trump’s tenure, when the Democratic Party enjoyed a slight advantage in the number of party switchers across the country.

But last year, about two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed parties moved to the Republican Party. A total of more than 1 million have become Republicans, compared to about 630,000 who have become Democrats.

The widespread migration of more than one million voters, a small part of all U.S. voters, does not guarantee the widespread success of the Republican Party in the November midterm elections, which will determine the control of Congress and dozens of governors. There is none. Democrats hope that the Supreme Court’s decision to dismiss the Roe v. Wade case on Friday will inspire supporters, especially in the suburbs, ahead of the interim period.

Still, details about party switchers give a disastrous warning to Democrats who were already concerned about the macro effects that will shape the political situation this fall.

About four months before the election day, Democrats do not have a clear strategy to deal with Biden’s unpopularity and the overwhelming fear of voters. Republicans offer few unique policy solutions, but the GOP has worked effectively to take advantage of Democratic shortcomings.

Republicans benefited last year as suburban parents became increasingly dissatisfied with the long-term closure of pandemic-related schools. Inflation has also intensified recently, and the Republican National Commission has set a record for the Biden administration by holding a voter registration event at gas stations on the outskirts of Swing State, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. It is tied to high gas prices. Republicans have also linked the Democratic president to an ongoing shortage of infant formula.

“Biden and the Democrats aren’t in bad contact with the American people, which is why voters are flocking to the Republicans,” RNC chairman Ronna McDaniel told AP. She predicted that “the suburbs of the United States will turn red in future cycles.” Because of “Biden’s gas boost, cross-border crisis, baby prescription shortages, and increased crime.”

The Democratic National Committee declined to comment when asked about the recent surge in Republican voters.

And Republican officials quickly acknowledged the shift’s achievements, but the phenomenon gained momentum shortly after Trump left the White House. Still, the specific reason for the shift remains unclear.

At least some of the newly registered Republicans are, in fact, Democrats who went to vote against Trump-supporting candidates in the GOP primary. Such voters may vote for democracy again in November of this year.

However, the range and breadth of party switching suggests that something bigger is working.

Last year, almost every state (including those without a prominent Republican primary) moved in the same direction as thousands of voters became Republicans. Only Virginia, which held an out-of-year election in 2021, saw Democrats particularly on the rise last year. But even there, Democrats were wiped out in state-wide elections last fall.

In Iowa, Democrats held the party changer’s advantage by a two-to-one difference. This is the flip side of last year, and the Republicans are ahead with similar amounts. The same dramatic change is happening in Ohio.

In Florida, Republicans captured 58 percent of party switchers in the last few years of the Trump era. Now, last year, they command 70 percent. And in Pennsylvania, Republicans accounted for 58 to 63 percent of party changers.

The current advantage of Republicans among party changers is that they are particularly ferocious in the suburbs of the country.

Based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classification, AP found that the suburban “Fringe” counties had a greater Republican advantage over smaller towns and counties. Republicans boosted party changer share in 168 of the 235 suburban counties surveyed by AP last year, compared to the last year of the Trump era (72 percent).

These included suburban counties in Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Ohio, Virginia, and Washington.

Republicans have also established themselves in suburban counties, where the CDC is concentrated in medium-sized cities and is called the “medium-sized metro.” Over 62% of such counties, or 164 in total, saw Republican growth. They range from counties in the northern suburbs of Denver, such as Larimar, to counties in the Los Angeles region, such as Ventura and Santa Barbara in California.

Republican dominance was almost universal, but in some places it was stronger than in others.

For example, in Lorain County, Ohio, just outside Cleveland, almost every party switcher became a Republican last year. It’s even when the Democrats captured three-quarters of those changing parties in the same county at the end of the Trump era.

Some conservative leaders are in the suburbs of the GOP unless Republicans do a better job explaining what they support, not what they oppose to suburban voters. I am worried that my profits will be limited.

Emily Seidel, head of Americans for Prosperity, a grassroots organization backed by Koch, said her network is directly seeing suburban voters moving away from Democrats representing “extreme policy positions.” ..

“But that doesn’t mean they’re ready to vote against those lawmakers. Frankly, they’re skeptical of both options they have,” Seidel said. .. “Lessons here: Candidates must make their point. They must give voters something to agree with, not just against them.”

Returning to Larimer County, Colorado, 39-year-old housewife Jessica Chloels says she was no longer able to vote for the Democratic Party, even though she was a credible Democratic voter until 2016.

There wasn’t a single “Ahaha” moment that persuaded her to switch, but by 2020, the Democrats “left me behind,” she said.

“The party itself is no longer a Democrat, but a progressive socialist,” she said, blaming Biden’s plans to eliminate the debt of billions of dollars of students in particular.


People reported from New York.

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