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According to the new Yahoo News/YouGov, given “what we know about the ongoing Donald Trump investigation,” a small majority of registered voters (51%) believe he “will be president again in the future.” I don’t think it should be allowed. poll.
Only 35% of voters believe Trump should be allowed to re-elect. The rest (14%) are unknown.
The survey of 1,566 US adults was conducted September 23-27, shortly after New York Attorney General Letitia James. filed a thorough lawsuit Trump and his three children have accused him of fraudulently overvaluing his assets by billions of dollars “to gain favorable financial terms.” Confidential documents he sends to Mar-a-Lago.
As such, it may reflect the cumulative effect of Trump’s mounting legal troubles. They were asking whether Trump would be allowed to be reappointed in a variety of scenarios, including “if he was convicted of obstruction of justice” or “if he was convicted of obstruction of justice.” [Justice Department’s] Investigation. “
But this leaves voters to wonder whether the various ongoing state and federal investigations have already revealed enough wrongdoing to strip Trump of his next term as president. It was the first time I asked for consideration (regardless of whether he had ever been convicted).
Most voters will say yes.
It’s not the strongest position to start a bid for re-election — by most accounts, Trump is poised to do something later this year or early next year.
Still, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll wasn’t all bad news for the former president. Three weeks ago, President Biden had a 6-point (48% vs. 42%) lead over Trump in his 2024 hypothetical head-to-head rematch. In the latest poll, Biden’s margin has shrunk to his two percentage points (from 47% to 45%).
But while partisanship is paramount in the general election setting, where Trump remains competitive, new polls suggest his position among Republican voters may be softening somewhat. It also suggests that there is
Republicans appeared to rally around Trump in the aftermath of the FBI raid in Mar-a-Lago on Aug. 8. Among registered voters who identify themselves as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, they are more likely to prefer the former president (54%) over “someone else” (33%) in the theoretical 2024 primary election overnight. increased (from 48%-39% previously).
But Trump’s “Mar-a-Lago Bump” is now gone. A new Yahoo News/YouGov survey found that his leading support among Republicans and Republican supporters in 2024 fell by 7 points (to 47%), while support for someone else rose by 3 points. (to 36%). Another 17% say they don’t know.
In other words, less than half of Republican voters support the former president for the party’s 2024 nomination. Against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump’s winning percentage is 47%, compared to DeSantis’s 34%.
When it comes to the New York civil lawsuit, it’s unlikely to change people’s perceptions of Trump on its own. Only 34% of Americans said yes. The rest said they had heard of it a little (20%) or never heard of it (19%).
Perhaps as a result, Americans who believe Trump has “inflated the value of his business assets by billions of dollars” have been accused of taking highly classified documents to Mar-a-Lago three weeks ago. fewer (44%) than (49%) ). 83% of Biden voters and 72% of Democrats in 2020 believe Trump has ballooned his business fortunes by billions. Only 10% of Trump voters and 12% of Republicans in 2020 agree.
Similarly, Americans said the New York lawsuit was motivated by a “genuine desire to hold Trump and his family accountable” (41%) or “political bias against Trump and his family” (39%). It is divided mainly along partisan lines as to whether it is attached or not. ).
That said, more than six in 10 (62%) said Trump “should be prosecuted” if he “committed business fraud,” with Republicans (39%) Plural number. But only 44% of his Americans should do it He will be charged with the crime “given what we know about the ongoing investigation.” Another 25% said they weren’t sure and 31% said they shouldn’t have been charged.
But there is room for James and prosecutors to argue. Early April, 45% of Americans told Yahoo News and YouGov They thought Trump had “committed a grave crime” at some point in his life. Today, that number is 50% for him. Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who think he has never committed a serious crime has dropped from 30% to 27%.
Whether or not Trump is convicted is another story. Given what we know today, only 27% of Americans believe the former president will eventually be “convicted.” More — 36% — no.
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The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,566 US adults interviewed online from September 23 to September 27, 2022. Like the 2020 presidential ballot (or no vote) and voter registration status, it is administered by the U.S. Census Bureau. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to represent all adults in the United States. The margin of error is approximately 2.7%.
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