Myanmar faces the potential for a major civil war

United Nations (AP) — UN Special Envoy to Myanmar warns on Wednesday that the country is facing the possibility of a civil war “on an unprecedented scale” and reverses the February 1 military coup to the UN Security Council He requested that he consider “potentially important actions” to make him do so. Restore democracy.

Christine Schraner Burgener did not identify any actions she considered important, but painted a disastrous picture of the military crackdown in a virtual briefing to the council obtained by the Associated Press. It became a failed state. “

“This can happen under our supervision, and if we cannot prevent the further spread of atrocities, in the long run, especially than currently investing in prevention by Myanmar’s neighbors and wider areas. Will cost much more to the world. “

Schraner Burgener congresses to “examine all available tools for collective action” and do what the Myanmar people deserve, “preventing multifaceted catastrophes in central Asia.” Prompted to.

The coup has reversed many years of slow progress towards democracy in Myanmar, which had declined for 50 years under a strict military regime leading to international isolation and sanctions. When the generals loosened their grip and reached Aung San Suu Kyi’s post-election power position in 2015, the international community responded by lifting most sanctions and investing in the country.

In a virtual conference closed to outsiders, Schlaner Bergener accused the killing and arrest of unarmed protesters trying to restore democracy. As of Wednesday, she quoted Myanmar’s Political Prisoners Support Association figures that about 2,729 people have been arrested, prosecuted, or sentenced since the coup and an estimated 536 have been killed.

On March 10, the Security Council called for the withdrawal of the coup, strongly condemned violence against peaceful protesters, and adopted a presidential statement calling for “maximum restraint” by the military. It emphasized the need to support “democratic institutions and processes” and called for the immediate release of detained government leaders, including Suu Kyi and President Win Myint.

The statement is weaker than the first draft circulated by the United Kingdom, which would have blamed the coup and threatened “possible actions under the Charter of the United Nations if things worsened” (UN sanctions wording).

Schlaner Bergener said serious international crime and military violations of international law “will be bloody as the Commander-in-Chief seems determined to consolidate his illegal grip on power by force.” He told council members that he was concerned.

“Mediation requires dialogue, but Myanmar’s military is closing the door to most of the world,” she said. “The military seems to be involved only if it feels that crackdowns and terrorism can contain the situation.”

“If you wait only when they are ready to speak, a bath of blood is imminent,” Schlaner Bergener warned.

The UN envoy called on people with access to an army called Tamadu to inform them of the damage to Myanmar’s reputation and the threat that Myanmar poses to the security of not only its citizens but also its neighbors.

“A strong international response requires a unified regional position, especially for neighboring countries to harness their influence on Myanmar’s stability,” Schlaner Bergener said next week. He added that he was planning to visit.

Schraner Burgener said intensified fighting in Kayin State has fled thousands to neighboring Thailand and intensified the conflict with the Kachin Independence Army near the Chinese border in Kayin State “to the highest point of the year.”

Armed ethnic groups on the eastern and western borders of Myanmar are also increasingly opposed to “military atrocities,” she said.

Schlaner Bergener warned against the opposition of ethnic armed groups that “military atrocities … (has) increased the likelihood of a civil war on an unprecedented scale.”

“Already vulnerable groups in need of humanitarian assistance, including ethnic minorities and Rohingya people, will suffer the most, but inevitably the entire country is on the verge of swirling into failed states,” she said.