Negative Forecasts for the Australian University Sector: S & P Report


The sector could suffer more losses this year than last year as the Australian university cohort of international students shrinks and border policies continue to keep future freshmen away, the report said.

According to S & P Global’s analysis of the future of the higher education sector, the effects of lower international enrollment and political tensions are causing serious problems in the sector.

“Our overall sector view remains negative.” report He also mentioned that the university responded swiftly to the unexpected situation in 2020.

Australian universities, the premier institutions in the higher education industry, Revealed last year The sector has lost at least $ 1.8 billion (US $ 1.4 billion) in revenue compared to 2019 and estimates that it will lose another $ 2 billion this year.

“Because the period of higher education is usually at least two years, a reduction in the starting cohort for one year has a pipeline effect and also reduces future profits,” the report said.

Universities in Australia are more dependent on international students because they make up a significant portion of the student population of higher education institutions compared to the university departments of the United Kingdom (UK), the United States and Canada.

The group of eight universities, considered to be Australia’s most prestigious universities, has a significant number of international students.

“Reputation also means that if student demand declines, we can adjust fees and admission criteria to stop demand from lower-ranked peers,” S & P reported.

Epoch Times Photo
The Australian National University (ANU) logo can be found on the campus building in Canberra, Australia on September 16, 2020. (AAPImage / Lukas Coch)

Former Vice President of Australian Catholic University Gregory Craven Told age His fear of this issue has been substantiated.

“Universities with big brands … may exist before other universities,” Craven said. “The very university that caused this crisis will escape by sacrificing other universities.”

The report also raised concerns that “education could come next” suffering from the restrictions imposed by Beijing in the ongoing economic coercion campaign against Australia.

“We see the intensifying conflict between Australia and China as a downside risk that could significantly amplify the fallout from the pandemic,” the report wrote.

A study by Navitas, a private educational institution, confirmed previous concerns from the tertiary industry that Australia would lose students to Canada and the United Kingdom if borders remained closed.

Interest in universities in Australia and New Zealand has been significantly reduced compared to a year ago when students considered both countries attractive learning destinations due to the excellent handling of COVID-19. It was.

“Australia and New Zealand continue to be perceived as safe and stable due to their very low exclusion strategies and case numbers, but this perception is becoming increasingly irrelevant to the country’s reputation as a research destination. “Masu,” said Navitas Jonathan Chew, Head of Strategic Insights and Analysis.

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