No evidence that everyone should get COVID-19 vaccine, British mathematician says amid booster rollout in autumn


There is no longer any evidence to suggest that everyone should get the COVID-19 vaccine, a British mathematician said the British government will roll out another booster campaign ahead of the winter season.

Norman Fenton, professor of risk and information management at Queen Mary University of London and director of risk assessment software firm Agena, told The Epoch Times that people at risk of serious illness or death from COVID-19 should be vaccinated. but based on more recent data there is no longer “evidence that everyone should be vaccinated”.

Fenton is a member of the Health Advisory and Recovery Team (HART), a group of British academics critical of the government’s response to the pandemic.

Dr. Claire Craig, a diagnostic pathologist who is also a member of the HART group, urged governments to “get real” and say people can’t expect to be injected “at great cost every six months.” “We will push for another vaccination,” he said. The campaign only amplifies the fear again. ”

Many mutations in coronaviruses have been observed in the spike protein, which binds to host cell receptors, fuses the viral envelope with the host cell membrane, and initiates infection.

Repeatedly vaccinating people against older versions of the spike protein will force our immune system to downgrade certain strategies while the virus “evolves away from its appearance.” Craig claims. She also said the spike protein found in the COVID-19 vaccine is the “most harmful” part of the virus.

‘No evidence’ COVID-19 vaccine reduced mortality

according to Joint Commission on Immunization and ImmunizationThe main aim of the UK’s Autumn Booster Program is to boost the immunity of people at high risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19 this winter.

A government advisory board said the recommended mRNA vaccine offers “lower, relatively short-lived” protection against infection and mild disease, while the coronavirus variant provides “excellent protection against severe disease.” ‘, suggesting that the vaccine will reduce the number of deaths. From COVID-19.

However, Craig and Fenton argued that the vaccine had not demonstrated life-saving efficacy.

Craig said the trajectory of cumulative global deaths from COVID-19 had not changed since the introduction of the vaccine, but Fenton said that all-cause mortality data for the UK had not been vaccinated. He argued that it showed “absolutely no evidence” that humans had a high mortality rate. from vaccinated persons.

Before the Omicron variant arrived, Craig was convinced in several papers that there was some evidence that the COVID-19 vaccine prevented death and severe illness. real-world data.

“When you look at the big picture and compare the trajectory of COVID deaths around the world, there is no change before and after the vaccine. The difference happened with Omicron, not the vaccine deployment,” she said.

Epoch Times photo
Members of the public receive their COVID-19 vaccine or booster on the NHS (National Health Service) bus outside the Asda supermarket in the town of Farnworth near Manchester in north west England on December 20, 2021. (via Oli Scarff/AFP Getty Images)

Fenton has long argued that all-cause mortality is the best way to assess the risks and benefits of treatment for fatal diseases.Flawed data.

According to the latest ONS data, age-adjusted mortality (ASMR), all-cause ASMR per 100,000 person-years from 1 January 2021 to 31 May 2022 was 2337.5 in the UK unimmunized population, with at least one dose of COVID-19 957.4 among those who received vaccination.

Breaking down the number of deaths associated with COVID-19 and the number of non-COVID-19 deaths, COVID-19 ASMR was 863.2 among unvaccinated and 64.5 among those who had been vaccinated, and non-COVID-19 ASMR was It was 1474.3. This is about 65% higher than the percentage of people who have been vaccinated (892.9).

Fenton argued that the last pair of digits was “incorrect.”

Fenton also said the numbers were “incorrect” because “their data show that non-COVID mortality among vaccinated people is much lower than historical non-COVID mortality.” , added that anomalies are possible. Due to “misclassification” [and] Miscounting of vaccinated and non-vaccinated persons.

According to pre-pandemic ONS data for England and Walesthe 2011-2019 ASMR ranged from 953 to 993, while the 1942-2018 data varied between 1,017.7 and 2,509.8.

Non-COVID-19 ASMR from 1 January 2021 to 31 May 2022 were also much lower than pre-pandemic figures for the group within 21 days of receiving the most recent vaccination. After the first dose he was 647.5, after the second dose he was 513.3, and after the third or booster dose he was 567.1.

Analyzing similar trends in previous versions of the dataset, Fenton, Craig, and other authors state in their non-peer-reviewed paper: preprinted paper March announced that the number of reported COVID-19-related and non-COVID-19 deaths in the “within 21 days of first dose” vaccination category was “incredibly low” and that the first dose That death occurred within 2 weeks of vaccination appears to have been excluded from the dataset. This could possibly be due to factors such as misclassification, late reporting, data processing or transcription errors.

They also noted that the “large carefully selected sample” of the population used by the ONS, including those who participated in the 2011 Census and enrolled in the GP in 2019, was not representative of the population as a whole, The ONS estimates of deaths and unvaccinated populations were too small to influence conclusions about vaccine risks and benefits.

and another paper Released in January, they also found that non-COVID mortality among unvaccinated age groups 60-69, 70-79, and 80+ year-on-year has been “annual” over the past several years, including 2020. , but each will peak in 2021, “at the same time that vaccine deployment for that age group peaked.”

vaccine safety

Commenting on the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine, Fenton said he doesn’t think it’s “killing a lot of people” as some believe, but that it’s reducing the incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis. It argues that there are “enough safety signals”, such as an increase. This invalidates the idea of ​​vaccinating healthy young people, who have an extremely low risk of dying from COVID-19.

Fenton said the vaccine could have prevented some COVID-19 deaths, but said the vaccine could have sped up deaths in some older people “by a few weeks.” “There may be a little evidence,” he said.

“Certainly what I mean is that there is absolutely no evidence that all-cause mortality in unvaccinated people is higher than in vaccinated people,” he said. Told.

Asked about the Yellow Card Scheme (UK’s adverse drug reaction reporting system), Fenton criticized the system as “very poor” and, like the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), “has no useful information”. said it does not collect. Also, the number of suspected COVID-19-related deaths he reported to VAERS in the 18-month period combined with all other vaccine-related suspected deaths over the past 32 years. was much more than

Epoch Times photo
Medics from Queen Alexandra’s Royal Army Nurses vaccinate a civilian at the Rapid Vaccination Center outside Bolton Town Hall in Bolton, England, 9 June 2021. (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

Craig also said the “early warning” indicator “has been ringing red for some time,” referring to adverse reaction warning systems around the world.

She said the data was “very tricky” to crack and that it would take a long time to properly measure potential vaccine-related problems.

Using shingles as an example, Craig says there is “pretty good circumstantial evidence” and some studies suggesting an increased risk of shingles after being vaccinated, “from an immune system perspective. There may be biological reasons, but it is difficult to compare whether shingles actually became more common after the introduction of the vaccine, because “people participated in GPS at a normal rate. pre-vaccination data may have shrunk due to in lockdown.

She also said that it “takes a long time” to properly measure risk. study It was announced in 2020, ten years after the swine flu vaccine Pandemrix was deployed.

“Healthcare now has better big data systems, which means it shouldn’t take that long… with the best will in the world and the fact that everyone wants to know how bad something is. , and it still takes a long time,” she said, adding, “People don’t necessarily have the same motivations here to find out what’s really going on.”

Craig: A vaccine is considered the ‘only solution’

Craig said that the lack of motivation she perceived was the reason why decision makers and influencers believed that “a vaccine is the only solution to what they still believe is a very dangerous and deadly condition.” He thinks it’s because he’s afraid of being, and as a result jabs “more and more often than young and young arms.”

Matt Hancock CCP Virus Vaccine Center
Secretary of State Matt Hancock visits the NHS Vaccine Center at Epsom Racecourse in Epsom, UK, 11 January 2021. (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

She also said, “I believe there’s a bit of a sunk cost fallacy in that they bought so much of this drug.

When the COVID-19 vaccine was being developed, the UK government pursued a strategy of overbuying to ensure there was an adequate supply even if one or several failed.

Craig said it was “fine” to pursue a strategy, adding, “But just because you’ve done it doesn’t mean you have to put them all into people’s arms.

“People can’t enter a world where they are expected to be forced to spend huge sums of money every six months,” she said, urging governments to “get real” and at some point “need them to step back.” I acknowledge that there is a

according to Latest Weekly COVID-19 Vaccine Surveillance Report A statement released by the UK Health and Security Agency on Thursday said, “Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic disease with Omicron variants is significantly lower than vaccines against Delta variants and is declining rapidly. However, protection against hospitalization remains. It remains high.”

In an email to the Epoch Times, a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services said:

“Our existing COVID vaccines have saved countless lives and continue to allow us to live with this virus without limits,” the statement said.

“Vaccines remain the best defense against severe illness from COVID, and those who are eligible should attend the fall booster when invited.”

Lily Zhou

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Lily Zhou is an Ireland-based reporter focusing on UK news. Lily said she attended the Chinese edition of The Epoch Times for the first time before she focused on the UK in 2020. Please contact [email protected]