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Omicron variants of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus are better at avoiding immunity from previous infections than delta and beta variants, according to South African researchers.
National scientists analyze surveillance data and say the numbers show that the risk of reinfection has tripled between the beginning of October and the end of November.
“We have found evidence of a substantial and continuous increase in the risk of reinfection that coincides with the timing of the emergence of epidemiological variants in South Africa. It suggests that it is at least partially driven by the increase in the number of infected individuals, “said Professor Juliet Priam, director of the South African Epidemiological Modeling and Analysis Center, and other scientists. increase. Preprint paper..
Modelers have drawn from the record of about 2.8 million people who were positive for COVID-19 at least 90 days before November 27. Of these people, 35,670 were suspected of being re-infected. A case was counted as a reinfection if it tested positive at least 90 days after the initial result. A subset of reinfections occurred in October and November.
Genome sampling shows that the Omicron mutant was present in South Africa by November 8th, more than a week after it arrived in Nigeria.
The data show that the 7-day moving average of suspicious reinfection is still lower than the peak of 349.1 seen on September 19. Still, the average is increasing after a peak-following decline.
Surveillance data list many vaccination statuses for people who test positive, and scientists were uncertain whether vaccination reductions could also be seen in vaccination.
“Our dataset does not have information about individual vaccination status, so we cannot assess whether Omicron evades vaccine-derived immunity,” Pulliam said in a statement.
The limits of the study were listed as including significant differences in the detection rates of COVID-19 cases nationwide, and reinfections not confirmed by sequencing. Some outside scientists are questioning the findings.
Dr. Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert based at the University of St Andrews, cannot say that the reinfection was Omicron on Twitter due to the lack of sequencing.
“The increased risk of reinfection is plausible, but it seems premature to estimate relative risk,” she said.
Cases of COVID-19 in South Africa have increased rapidly in recent weeks, raising concerns around the world about Omicron variants. Officials there reported 11,535 new COVID-19 cases on 2 December, an increase of 25 percent from the previous day and 98 percent from 2 November.
Although it takes time to obtain and sequence samples, “Omicron seems to dominate,” said Anne von Gottberg, a microbiologist at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, the World Health Organization. He spoke at a remote press conference hosted.
Researchers also said that innate immunity is still likely to provide protection against serious illness.
“We believe they are still protected from serious and symptomatic illnesses that require hospitalization,” Fongottberg said. “You have to wait a week or two longer to see what is happening to enable the clinical course of these cases.”
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Zachary Stieber covers US news, including politics and proceedings. He started in The Epoch Times as a metro reporter for New York City.
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