Commentary
Political editor Toby Helm discusses the opinion survey, Report A year after Britain left the European Union, “more than six out of ten voters believe Brexit was worse or worse than expected.”
Interestingly, poll results also show that “the remaining 7% think Brexit is better than expected.” Overall, Helm tells readers that “only 14 percent of all voters said Brexit was better than expected.”
according to Statista poll“As of December 2021, 49% of the British people thought it was wrong to leave the European Union, but 38% thought it was the right decision.”
During the study period from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2021, “the percentage of people who regret Brexit was slightly higher than those who supported Brexit.” However, this poll also revealed that the proportion of undecided people remains static, ranging from 11 to 13 percent.
The value of these statistical polling exercises should be questioned. It is doubtful that we will be able to gain credible insights into the views of the British people just one year after Brexit is realized.
Common sense suggests that there is always a tooth-growing problem when a country implements this scale of change.
Also, in order to take the results of polls seriously, pollsters need to indicate the number of people surveyed. This is important because depending on the size of the voters, the pool of voters may need to represent the total population.
Therefore, the results of these Brexit polls may not be statistically significant. In addition, I would like to know if the interviewee was asked a closed question that could be answered “yes” or “no”. Closed questions usually do not provide an opportunity to think about issues related to the people who voted, so the results of the vote are easy to manipulate.
In any case, polls only report on the perceptions of those who participated in the polls. The results of polls lack the reasoning and remorse that is expected to be made to reach an informed opinion on the relevant issue.
Given that in the Brexit context, it will take years to confirm the success or lack of Brexit, what information these polls will provide and what new insights, if any, will be revealed. I wonder if.
In addition, polls were conducted in a horrifying climate caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The uncertainties created by the immense blockades and border closures, and the rampaging Omicron’s spread, will certainly affect the ability and willingness of those who make the verdicts considered by Brexit.
Therefore, it is quite possible that this adversely affected the implementation of post-Brexit policies and the perceptions and views of pollsters and interviewees.
Well-known British politician George Canning served as Foreign Minister and was appointed Prime Minister for four months before his death on August 8, 1827. His abominable remarks are remembered as follows: truth. “
Canning’s perceptual statement can also be applied to the “results” of polls.
In fact, 51.9 percent of UK voters voted for vacation. According to polls, 26% of these withdrawal supporters believed that “Brexit was worse or worse than expected.”
But 16% of these vacation advocates always thought it wouldn’t work (and still voted). This means that only 10% of Leave supporters were really surprised by the negative consequences of Brexit in their own country. Therefore, the conclusion that “6 out of 10 voters believe that Brexit is worse or worse than expected” may be statistically correct, but it cannot give the big picture.
The beneficial or negative effects of Brexit may not really be known for some time. However, the long-term outlook for the EU-UK Trade Cooperation Agreement is promising as it provides free movement of goods with zero tariffs.
Indeed, new trade barriers of bureaucratic nature have hindered the free flow of goods since Brexit. For example, as of January 1, 2022, there is a full customs inspection of goods exported from the EU to the United Kingdom (except for Northern Ireland, where special rules apply). Not surprisingly, this will increase paperwork, increase costs for European exporters and UK importers, and reduce profits.
But Brexit has also released the opportunity for the UK to conclude a new trade deal. This can ultimately be profitable.
One of these agreements is the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement, which was effectively signed on December 17, 2021, on the Australian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade website, “In the former Intergenerational Transactions with Australia. Yes, it’s a historic moment in our relationship with Britain. “However, this agreement has not yet come into force.
Polling’s tyranny leads to hasty and unthinking policy decisions.
In this context, columnist Charlie Harper Note “Somewhere along the way, we decided that polls were the best tool to explain public policy questions … Communicating what others support or disagree with is a pros and cons detail of the proposal. It was prioritized over the analysis. “
Still, polls are now a regular tragedy and are worriedly analyzed by politicians. To maintain seize of power, they are willing to follow the so-called “majority” probably represented by these investigations.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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Gabriël A. MoensAM is an emeritus professor at the University of Queensland and vice president and dean of Murdoch University. In 2003, Mornes was awarded the Australian Centennial Medal by the Prime Minister for his service to education. He has taught extensively in Australia, Asia, Europe, and the United States. Moens recently published two novels, “ATwisted Choice” (Boolarong Press, 2020) and “The Coincidence” (Connor Court Publishing, 2021).