OPEC expects oil demand to weaken in the fourth quarter, but in 2022 it will surge above pre-pandemic levels.


The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2022 against the backdrop of a strong economic recovery outlook on Monday, but lowered its forecast for the final quarter of this year due to pandemic-related factors. Fixed.

OPEC said in it Monthly market reportAnnounced on September 13, 2021’s fourth-quarter oil demand averages 99.7 million barrels (bpd) per day, down 110,000 barrels / day from last month’s forecast.

“The increased risk of COVID-19 cases, primarily caused by delta variants, has clouded the outlook for oil demand entering the final quarter of this year,” OPEC said in a report.

“As a result, oil demand in the second half of 2021 was adjusted slightly lower, partially delaying the recovery of oil demand in the first half of 2022.”

At the same time, OPEC expects global oil cravings to increase 4.2 million barrels / day to 100.8 million barrels / day in 2022, primarily against the backdrop of a “steady economic outlook in all regions.” I am. The upward revision in 2022 exceeded last month’s estimate to reach 980,000 bpd, indicating a recovery in demand above pre-pandemic levels.

OPEC forecasts that global GDP will rise 4.2% in 2022, and the cartel warns that this outlook is at risk.

“Further increases in COVID-19 infections, especially considering the Northern Hemisphere winter season, could undermine current growth forecasts,” OPEC said in a report, with ongoing supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, And rising government debt levels also “need close scrutiny.”

Brent crude oil prices rose on Monday 47 cents rise, Or 0.64%, $ 73.42 a barrel by 11:55 am New York time on September 13, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Was up $ 70.33 for 61 cents (0.87 percent).

Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts WTI prices Average Brent crude oil prices are projected to drop from $ 68.61 this year to an average of $ 66.04 next year, but by 2022 they were $ 62.37 per barrel.

Meanwhile, retail gasoline prices in the United States have risen to their highest levels in seven years.

US retail gasoline prices averaged $ 3.16 per gallon in August, the highest monthly average since October 2014. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).. Week of September 6th National average According to the EIA, one gallon of regular gasoline rose from $ 3.139 last week to a seven-year high of $ 3.176. Predicted it Hurricane-related supply turmoil in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to put pressure on prices in the short term.

According to the latest short term of the institution Energy outlookRetail gasoline prices are expected to average $ 3.14 per gallon in September, before falling to an average of $ 2.91 per gallon in the fourth quarter of this year. This is a promising sign for drivers seeking pump relief.

Tom Ojimek

Tom Ozimek has a broad background in journalism, deposit insurance, marketing and communication, and adult education. The best writing advice he has ever heard is from Roy Peter Clark.