Output of Japanese factory overlooked again in August due to supply chain turmoil: Opinion poll

Tokyo — Japan’s manufacturing sector could face a global chip shortage and supply chain disruption due to the spread of delta coronavirus variants in Southeast Asia, which could reduce Japanese factory production again in August.

Opinion polls show that retail sales in August may have settled after the surge in July, highlighting the vulnerability of domestic consumption and broader recovery of Japan’s export base from the coronavirus pandemic. It shattered the expectations of policy makers to become.

Other data predict that Japan’s unemployment rate will rise in August, employment availability will ease slightly, and show bad signs for consumer spending, which accounts for more than half of the world’s third-largest economy. increase.

A batch of weak data highlights the challenges faced by the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and thus the new prime minister, as they try to fight COVID-19 while raising the economy.

According to polls from 19 Reuters economists, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry data predict that August industrial output will decline 0.5% from the previous month. Production fell for the second straight month, but at a slower pace than in July, when it fell 1.5%.

Japan’s recovery has been driven by exports of automobiles and capital goods. Analysts are concerned that supply shortages in Southeast Asia and a slowdown in the Chinese economy could undermine production and export demand, respectively, and upset Japan’s rebound from a pandemic-led slump.

“Car production continues to be under adjustment pressure, and China’s recovery from COVID pain appeared to be stagnant,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

Economists in the survey estimate retail sales in August fell 1.0% year-on-year after a 2.4% increase in July due to the prolonged impact of the COVID-19 crisis on service sector activity. This is the first year-on-year decrease in half a year.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will release data on both industrial production and retail sales at 8:50 am on September 30 (2350 GMT on September 29).

The country’s unemployment rate is expected to worsen, with the August unemployment rate rising slightly from 2.8% in July to 2.9%, while the job seeker ratio was projected to ease slightly from 1.15 last month to 1.14. ..

Job listings will be announced on October 1st at 8:30 am (September 30th, Greenwich Mean Time 2330am).

Housing start data scheduled for September 30 at 2:00 pm (Greenwich Mean Time 0500) could rise 9.9% in July and then 9.5% in August.