The rallying of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border raised the risk of aggression.
Former US diplomats and officials say there is a significant risk of Russia’s invasion given Putin’s history.
“For some reason, he wants to neutralize Ukraine,” Russia’s top expert Fiona Hill told insiders.
Russia is the second time this year On the verge of invading Ukraine.. Tens of thousands of Russian troops are rallying along the Ukrainian border, alerting the entire west.Ukrainian president on Friday claimed to have He revealed a coup plan involving Russians. The world is at stake, and Washington leaders aren’t just thinking about what Russian President Vladimir Putin will do next.
“I don’t know Putin’s intentions, but I know what happened in the past,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said recently. I told reporters. “We know the guide to quoting fantastic provocations from Ukraine and other countries and using them as an excuse to do what Russia has been planning for a long time.”
Former U.S. diplomats, former officials and experts say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could be strong in the near future, with Putin more than the U.S. and NATO when many Western nations are plagued domestically. Confusion that emphasizes that it also has great benefits.
“There is a great risk of Russia’s military activity in Ukraine in the coming months. All signs show a significant increase in military power,” NATO’s US ambassador Ivo Daalder told insiders from 2009 to 2013. rice field.
Moscow’s rhetoric at this point is “designed to increase tensions,” while “condemning the United States and NATO for the possibility of escalation,” Dardah said.
Putin is “fatally serious” about taking action in Ukraine, Fiona Hill, Russia’s chief adviser at the National Security Council under the Trump administration, told insiders. “For some reason, he wants to incapacitate Ukraine,” she added.
Hill assisted Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, Putin’s unilateral merger of Crimea in 2014, and rebels in the ongoing war in Kremlin, especially in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. As part of this, the Kremlin has denied involvement in the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, which has claimed the lives of more than 13,000 people since 2014.
Hill currently considers the West weak due to the historic political polarization of the United States, widening disparities between the United States and its European allies, and disagreements within many European nations, and exploits them. He added that he was seeing an “incredible opportunity.” The Russian president “knows that none of us wants to fight for Ukraine.”
USA provided $ 2.5 billion With security assistance to Ukraine since 2014.There is strong bipartisan support in Congress Strengthen its financial support, However, even if Russia invades, it is highly unlikely that the United States will send troops to support Ukraine.
“A country that has invaded Ukraine before”
Stephen Peifer, a U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000, said, “The potential cost to the Kremlin can be so high that Russia is” low “invading Ukraine. I told the insider to put it in. Sanctions, NATO revitalization, and most importantly, Russian soldiers returned home in body bags, which would not be popular at home. “
However, Piffer also emphasized that Putin has his “unique logic” and it is difficult to rule out anything. Mr. Piffer said the United States and Europe need to clarify that if Russia takes military action, it will incur “big costs” and personally tells the Kremlin what kind of sanctions will be implemented. I suggested that it should be communicated.
“If Russia invades, NATO will not take direct military action against Russia,” Piffer added. “But with the potential for increased arms supply to Ukraine by individual NATO members, the alliance as a whole will be even more serious about strengthening deterrence and defenses against Russia,” he said.
NATO Secretary-General Jason Stoltenberg to Russia on Friday “Cost” and “Result” The Associated Press reported that if force was used against Ukraine. Mr Stoltenberg said Russia’s military buildup was “not provoked or explained,” raising tensions and warning that there was a risk of miscalculation.
“I’m not sure about Russia’s intentions,” said the NATO chief, but added that “this is an increase in military power by countries that have previously invaded Ukraine.”
“All options are at the table,” Karen Donfleet, a top US diplomat on European affairs, told reporters on Friday in terms of responding to the buildup of Russian troops. Per reuters..
Ukraine is Putin’s “unfinished business”
The Kremlin denied plans to invade Ukraine, blaming NATO for its controversial dynamics. Last Thursday, President Putin said the West did not take Russia’s “red line” seriously enough.
“We always express concern about this and talk about the red line, but we understand that our partners have a very superficial attitude towards all warnings and the story of the red line. increase. Putin said In a speech on foreign policy. Putin claimed that the western strategic bomber was flying within about 12.5 miles from the Russian border.
This happened after the September Kremlin warned that NATO was expanding Ukraine’s military infrastructure. Will cross Putin’s “red line”. Russia has repeatedly condemned US and NATO military operations in the Black Sea region.
Ukraine is not a full NATO member, but has repeatedly expressed its desire to participate while maintaining a strong partnership with the alliance. This infuriated Putin, a former KGB operative, who sees increased US and NATO military activity in Ukraine as a major threat to Russia’s security. Moscow has moved to shatter virtually all western influence in the former Soviet Republic and its neighbor Ukraine.
President Putin said he was “engaged in a turmoil strategy” with the goal of spreading “a disagreement between Europe and the region” in order to “make sure he and Russia are not ignored.”
Mr Putin said Putin put Ukraine “at the top of the hierarchy of problems he wants to solve” in that the Russian president has placed Ukraine “at the top of the hierarchy of problems he wants to solve” in that his red line in Europe is recognized and respected. He emphasized that he considers it an “unfinished business”. Mr Putin said he would accept to achieve a diplomatic resolution, but if Russia feels not taken seriously, things could go further.
Mr Putin said the only way to lose the western “dominance” of Ukraine is to have a “collective and powerful diplomatic response.”
“The big challenge is for Europe,” Hill said, stressing that the United States cannot solve this on its own.
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