Harry Kazianis, senior director of the National Interest Center, a general US foreign policy and national security expert, said Putin did not control Ukraine, but damaged the military, making it unattractive to the European Union and NATO. Said it didn’t seem to be. Allies.
Putin is unlikely to invade Ukraine given the current situation, but if he attacks, it is swift.
“But I think the Russians will launch a very short, sharp war, probably about a week or two. What they are essentially trying to do is damage the Ukrainian army. It’s about damaging its economy to the extent that NATO and the European Union never want to touch them, “said Kazianis. “And it makes sense because I think Putin is afraid of a strong and vibrant democracy at his border, integrated with the EU and NATO.”
In the past, Moscow has requested that Ukraine not participate in NATO. This is an idea rejected by the United States and its western allies.
He said the new developments suggest that Putin wants to try diplomacy rather than military action to get what he wants in the area.
“I think the Russians are going to postpone for now. There is actually a recent footage of President Vladimir Putin talking to Foreign Minister Sergei Viklov, and Putin asked Labrov: Diplomacy. Was there any more way to? … Did he waste his time? In fact, Viklov said he hadn’t run out of all diplomatic paths yet. So it’s probably the Russians just flashing a little. I think it is. “
Kazianis does not believe that invading Ukraine is in Russia’s best interests.
“It will be a disaster for his administration, it will fight Ukrainians, they will fight fiercely, they will lose, but it will eventually deplete Russia of all counterinsurgency operations. I was the mother of the campaign. “
Mr Putin said he hopes Putin will not launch an attack. Because mistakes are costly and can harm innocent people in the surrounding area.
“I really hope it’s not Putin’s intention, because the danger here isn’t necessarily the Russian invasion. That’s a bad thing, but it’s a miscalculation,” Kazianis said. rice field. “That is, God forbids Russian missiles. As you know, there is a problem with the guidance system, landing in Poland and killing those who could cause Article 5.”
Article 5 of NATO Treaty “Group defense means that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all allies.”
Russia has gathered about 130,000 troops and artillery and other heavy equipment near the Ukrainian border, but the Kremlin repeatedly denied plans to attack, stating that military action was to maintain security against NATO’s aggression. rice field.
Tom Ozimek contributed to this report.