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Why Trump is more likely to win the Republican Party than take his followers to a new third party

Supporters of former President Trump will meet outside Trump Tower on March 8, 2021, during a rare visit by Trump to his New York office. Former President Andrew Lichtenstein / Corbis via Getty Images Donald Trump is called the Patriotic Party, who sometimes claimed he would start a third-party party. In fact, most Americans (62% in recent polls) say they welcome the opportunity to vote for a third party. In almost every other democracy, those Americans will get their wishes. In the Netherlands, for example, even a small “third party” called the Party for the Animals, which consists of animal rights advocates rather than dogs and cats, won 3.2% of the 2017 legislative vote and won five out of 150 seats. I got it. In the national legislature. However, in the United States, although the Libertarian Party won over one million House of Representatives votes, the most successful Libertarian House of Representatives candidate among the U.S. minor parties did not win any House of Representatives seats in 2020. did. Neither the 390,000 Working Families Party nor the Minnesota Senator Candidate Legalized Marijuana Now Party received 185,000 votes. Why don’t American voters have more than one viable political party to elect in, when almost every other democracy in the world does? These voters supported either Biden or Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Still, 62% of Americans say they want the option to vote for third-party candidates. AFP via Mandel Gunn, Jim Watson / Getty Images As we found in a multi-rule party survey, the United States is the only major democracy and only two parties can consistently elect civil servants. The main reason for this is the US election system. Vote counting is counted using multiple rules in most American elections. In other words, “the winner takes everything.” Anyone who gets the most votes wins a single seat for the election. Other democracies choose to count some or all of their votes differently. For example, California could be divided into 53 US House districts, and instead of each district electing one representative, the entire state could be a multi-member district, and all California voters use proportional representation. You will be asked to select all 53 US House members. .. Each party presents a list of candidates for all 53 seats and you choose one of the party’s slate as a voter. If your party wins 40% of the votes in the state, it elects 40% of the representatives-the first 21 candidates listed on the party’s slate. This is a system used in 21 of the 28 countries in Western Europe, including Germany and Spain. In such a system, a political party must win one seat, depending on the minimum percentage or threshold. Even small parties make sense to run candidates for the House of Representatives. , They were able to win 5% of the state’s US House of Representatives seats. Therefore, if the Legalized Marijuana Now Party wins 5% of the votes in California, a few candidates for the party will be members of the House of Representatives and are ready to discuss marijuana legalization in Congress. In fact, until the 1950s, some US states had multi-member districts. But under the current electoral system, if the Legalized Marijuana Now Party wins 5% of the votes of state legislators, nothing wins. It spent a lot of money and effort without officers to show it. This disadvantage for small parties is also incorporated into the Electoral College. Electoral colleges require a majority of electoral votes for a candidate to win the presidential election. There is another factor that opposes the success of the third party in which the political party runs the show. The legislature has created rules on how candidates and political parties can participate in voting, and the legislature is largely composed of Republicans and Democrats. They don’t want to intensify competition. Therefore, minor party candidates usually require more ballot signatures than large party candidates, and often pay application fees that large party candidates do not necessarily have to pay. In addition, many Americans call themselves “independents,” but pollsters find that most of these “independents” are actually leaning towards either Democrats or Republicans. , Their voting choices are almost as partisan as those who claim to belong to a political party. Many Americans call themselves “independence,” but their voting choices are almost as partisan as those who claim to be Democrats or Republicans. Scott Olson / Getty Images Political identification is the only and most important determinant of people’s voting choices. In 2020, 94% of Republicans voted for Donald Trump, and the same percentage of Democrats voted for Joe Biden. A few true independents in American politics are much less likely to be interested in and vote for politics. Therefore, it will not be easy for a third party to get Americans to set aside the loyalty of their existing faction. It’s hard to get there from here Theoretically, the idea of ​​the “Center Party” has great appeal. In reality, few people agree with the meaning of “centrism.” Many people imagine a “center” party when asked this question, which reflects all of their own views and none of the views they disagree with. That’s where the Trump Party has one advantage. Future Trump Party supporters agree on what they represent: Donald Trump. [The Conversation’s newsletter explains what’s going on with the coronavirus pandemic. Subscribe now.] Still, for Trump supporters, there’s an easier way than fighting the US electoral system, unfriendly ballot access rules, and established party identification. It’s about taking over the Republican Party. In fact, they are very close to doing so now. Trump has a strong hold on the party’s policies. “Trump is effectively a Republican,” said Jason Miller, his adviser. This Trump party is very different from Ronald Reagan’s Republican Party. That’s not surprising. Major US political parties have always been permeable and vulnerable to faction takeovers. There is good reason for Americans to want a more major political party. It is difficult for the two to capture the diverse views of countries with more than 300 million people. But American politics would look very different if voters had a viable multi-party system of choice: the Socialist Party, the White Supremacist Party, and perhaps even the Party for the Animals. To get there, the legislature and state legislature need to make fundamental changes to the US elections, transforming single-seat constituencies with winner-dominated single-seat constituencies into proportional representation single-seat constituencies. This article has been republished by The Conversation, a non-profit news outlet. A dedicated site for sharing ideas from academic experts. It was written by Marjorie Hershey of Indiana University. Read more: The candidate you like is the one you think you can choose the most What is the platform of the political party? And are they important? Marjorie Hershey does not work, consult, own shares, or receive funding for companies or organizations that benefit from this article, and discloses alliances other than academic appointments. I have not.

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