Republicans have a unique advantage in Newsom’s recall — lower criteria for success

John Cox, Doug Oze, Kevin Fallconner.

Businessman John Cox, former Congressman Doug Ose, and former San Diego Mayor Kevin Fallconner are top Republicans who want to leave Governor Gavin Newsom in a recall. (Getty Images)

Republicans who want to replace Governor Gavin Newsom, even before they officially qualify for voting, are in full campaign mode.

trio Of prominent Republicans running Little known among state voters, they refine their message, Financing For incumbents with infinite resources Dealing with former President Trump At the same time as trying to define themselves in contrast to Republican rivals, they are trying to set fire to Newsom. From time to time it evolved into sniping each other.

Jack Pitney, a professor of political science at Claremont McKenna University, said:

The last Governor of California was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was elected in the 2003 recall and re-elected in the 2006 general election. Doug Ose and businessman John Cox.

The bar is low, but winning the call is still complicated. Republican candidates need more than 50% of the ballot to vote to expel Newsom, and need to strengthen the support of GOP voters while reaching out to centre-left independents and Democrats.

Conservative Orange County activist John Freishmann, who hasn’t participated in the race, said candidates should be careful when refining their message and adjusting how much Newsom will attack other Republicans. Warned that it was necessary.

“I understand that I need to differentiate myself from other candidates, but in the end, I think the most successful Republicans will be the ones who show that they can take on Newsom. “Former Republican officials said. “The oldest rule is that you have to build yourself before you can hit others.”

Democrats dominate California politics, However, the rules governing the call election mean that candidates can be elected governor with far fewer votes than in traditional elections.

Recall Expected to be voted on After the county election, authorities will finish verifying the signature this month. Voters are asked two questions: do they want to recall Newsom, and if the governor is recalled, who do they want to replace him with? Newsome cannot be displayed on replacement ballots.

In all polls to date, less than 50% of voters want to bring Newsome back, and the second question is controversial. But elections are months away and anything is possible.

In regular elections, candidates compete in jungle primaries, with the top two voters running for the November general election. Next, the candidate who receives more than 50% of the votes will win the seat.

As the state has become more liberal in recent years, it is becoming increasingly out of reach for Republicans. Last time The Republican Party won state-wide elections for the Governor and State Insurance Commissioners in 2006. The Democratic Party currently has a 22 percentage point registration edge against the Republican Party.

However, in the call election, a successor may be selected with less than 50% of the votes. This is probably a one-step election that attracts a large number of candidates, so regardless of the number of votes, the top voter wins.

Karl Demaio, a conservative San Diego radio host, warned that future challenges for the Republican Party would be difficult.

“We have to recruit volunteers and say,’Look, the signature drive was hard. It’s going to be easier compared to the next part,'” he said.

Republican opportunities will be boosted If there is no prominent Democrat to replace Newsom. There are reports that Democrats are voting, calling donors and considering their options, but no one is in the race yet.

Within the Republican Party, Fallconner is trying to position himself as a leading candidate for presumption, developing the longest list of support, emphasizing his ability to be elected in Democratic cities, and publicly ignoring his GOP rivals. , I’m igniting Newsome.

Last week he held an event in Bakersfield, criticizing the state’s unemployment system, which Californians struggled to access during the COVID-19 pandemic. Billions of dollars have been stolen by fraudulent claims. Earlier, he criticized Newsom for his response to pandemics, homelessness, and reopening of school.

Falconer spokesman John Burke said the campaign was aimed at uniting Republican voters behind the former mayor.

“Our focus is not on attacking fellow Republicans, but on emphasizing alternatives to Gavin Newsom’s failure,” he said. “For this recall to be successful, it needs to be integrated behind the only candidate who can secure this historic opportunity for Californians who demand change.”

State Republican officials withdrew a proposal to change the support process earlier this year, seeing party activists as seizing power designed to benefit Fallconner.

The good intentions of establishing Fallconner face criticism from Republicans who claim it is not as conservative as he claims. Demaio, a former member of the San Diego City Council, called Fallconner “Meg Whitman without money or lipstick.” Record-breaking $ 144 million unsuccessful Republican governor candidate in 2010 Of her own money in her run.

Businessman Cox, who Severely lost governor race to Newsom in 2018, Launched his campaign to attack Fall Connor.

Cox has released a 30-second ad called “Gavin Fall Connor”. This combines the claims that Fallconner is driving real estate transactions. Newsom dining indoors with a lobbyist at a fine dining restaurant He urged Californians to avoid the social gathering because of the pandemic.

“Is this enough?” Cox says. “I’m John Cox. I’m a businessman, not a politician …. It’s time to make a fresh start.”

Cox recently lost some aides due to disagreements about the campaign’s strategy. A Republican adviser familiar with the Cox campaign said the split was partly due to Cox’s obsession with Fallconner (“almost obsession”).

“You can focus on other enemies, but in reality you need to identify and define voters who aren’t familiar with you and contrast them with Gavin Newsom,” he said. This strategist discusses with says. If anonymity is given.

Cox disputed the idea of ​​attacking Fallconner. He claims that, like Newsom, he simply points out that Fallconner is an insider.

“I’m an outsider. I’m the guy trying to get things done,” Cox said, criticizing Newsom and Fallconner for being watched over by their donors. “People are fed up with it. They want outsiders. They really want someone who is going to tackle these issues.”

Former Congressman Ose is the most recent and remarkable participant in the race. He said he was still building his campaign team and was planning to attack Newsom in a vote against other Republicans.

“I think voters are looking for someone with a successful track record in both the private and public sectors. I’m the only one who has that,” Ose said. “I think the whole recall is a referendum on Gavin Newsom. We need to focus on that. He has a terrible record over the last two years and is concerned about where the state is heading. Is giving. “

Ose and Cox are independently wealthy. It is unknown how much they will donate to their efforts. Cox donated $ 2 million out of the nearly $ 2.5 million he reported so far in his campaign. Fall Connor reports that it has raised $ 1.4 million. Ose’s campaign committee did not yet have to submit financial information disclosures.

The looming question is whether Trump is weighted. Overall disgust with California voters, He is very popular on a state Republican basis. Trump lost the state with more than 5 million votes in 2020, but gained the support of more than 6 million Californians.

All Republican candidates supported the former president to varying degrees. Ose chaired Trump’s state in 2016. Cox was approved by Trump in the 2018 Governor’s bid. Fallconner voted against the president in 2016, but voted for the president in 2020 and took a picture with Trump in the Oval Office.

This area can be confused if Richard Grenell, a member of the Trump administration, who is popular with presidential supporters and donors, participates in the race. He strongly suggested that he was considering bidding in his speech at this year’s Conservative Political Activities Council.

Trump hasn’t weighted yet, but his son reveals that loyalty is being tested.

Donald Trump Jr. tweeted after blaming Folconer when asked if he wanted Trump’s support in the race.

This story was originally Los Angeles Times..