According to a new analysis, zero emissions by 2050 entails significant economic and environmental costs, but are not well understood. While efforts to quantify these impacts are beginning to materialize, there is growing concern about how to source the components of the green economy.
Dan Moseley, senior economist at Oxford Economics (OE), told The Epoch Times that an economic analysis of the road to Net Zero by 2050 was conducted last year by organizations such as intergovernmental panels on climate change and networks. He said it was relatively undeveloped, despite advances in scenario development.For the greening of the financial system, and International Energy Agency..
“But so far, no company has published the results of a macroeconomic scenario that explains both migration risk and physical risk,” Moseley said.
Physical risk refers to extreme weather events such as storms, droughts and floods, and migration risk stems from the process of separating the world from fossil fuels and adopting environmentally friendly solutions.
The OE is “chaotic” needed to reach net zero by 2050 if countries have to catch up if they do not take sufficient action to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement by 2030. I simulated the scenario.
In the OE chaotic scenario, by 2035, global gross domestic product will be 1.7% lower than in the baseline scenario, and by 2050, it will be 3% lower.
OE modeling suggests that under chaotic scenarios, aggressive carbon taxes and limited renewable energy capacities can cause significant economic damage, including significant inflationary pressures.
Canada’s Federation On April 22, a work announced in the 2021 budget stated that Canada was in a position to reduce emissions by about 36% below the 2005 level by 2030. At the same time, the government was in a position to reduce emissions below the 2005 level by 2030. Announced a new goal of 40-45% reduction by the year. 2030.
Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Net Zero Advisory Board In February, we announced that Canada would recommend a roadmap to reach net zero by 2050.
“Within the next few weeks, the Net Zero Advisory Board will provide an overview of its national and international commitment to Net Zero,” a spokeswoman for Environment and Climate Change Canada told The Epoch Times. ..
Building C-12The proposed Canada Net Zero Emissions Liability Act establishes a legally binding process for setting milestones for emission reductions for the five years to 2050, starting with the new targets set in 2030.
Road to Nowhere?
Governments around the world have put their countries on track for decades to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. Academia and private sector analyzes in the UK and Germany, respectively, show some of the annoying problems ahead.
Last June, Professor of Technology, University of Cambridge Michael J. Kelly See a document produced by a consortium of British university engineers called “absolute temperature” This shows what the UK will actually emit zero emissions in 2050.
“The change is so severe that Congress and voters will not vote as a way to stop climate change 20 to 50 years from now,” he wrote in CapX’s editorial. For example, the abolition of air and international shipping is part of the UK’s contribution to 2050.
Kelly asked many questions to consider in Net Zero Road by 2050. For example, what happens if you don’t have enough material to make all the car batteries you need, what to do with used batteries and wind and solar generators. There are more tons of hazardous waste per unit of electricity produced than nuclear power plants.
China will become OPEC on the Green Agenda, given that it dominates many of the key materials used in batteries as a result of the transition to Net Zero by 2050, Kelly wrote.
“Fifteen years later, we realize that the entire Net Zero goal is an unattainable pipe dream and call for a comprehensive outage. What can we recover from the false investments we have made so far?” Kelly said. Asked.
Impact on biodiversity
According to the German Bank (DB), the demand for metals such as cobalt and nickel for electric vehicles, aluminum and manganese for wind turbines, and rare earth minerals for solar panels is increasing to drive the green economy. Will develop into.
“Green energy and infrastructure rely heavily on products from emerging markets with biodiversity. When businesses become part of a’green solution’, they face difficult reputation risks,” said a report titled “Biodiversity: From Insects to Megacorporations” released by DB on May 26. ..
According to the German investment bank, the biodiversity challenges that miners may face may include approval processes and regulations.
DB also showed an example where Chile’s lithium mining industry uses two-thirds of the water, one of the driest regions on the planet.
“Clean energy is not a silver bullet,” the report said.
Biofuels can lead to water and soil pollution, hydroelectric dams can cause forest loss and unnatural adjustment of rivers, large wind farms can lead to habitat loss, seabed noise It can cause pollution and death of people. Migratory birds.
DB also noted that dust control and herbicides are being used to maintain the vast land cleared for solar energy equipment.
However, the G7’s climate and environment minister remains optimistic.
“We will bend the biodiversity loss curve by 2030 and maintain the limit of temperature rise of 1.5 ° C by aligning with the goal of achieving the 2030 goal, the world is natural. Helps to pave the way for a positive and climate-resistant path to zero net emissions as soon as possible and by 2050 at the latest. statement From the meeting in London on May 21st.